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02-18-2013, 12:26 PM | #6136 | |
Rabbi Goldmann
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You're not understanding my point. Financially, the Big 12 gets a huge benefit from Fox by agreeing to that 9th conference game. If they lose that, in your scenario, their contract value declines. Since the Big 12 does not get the viewership that the SEC or Big 10 does, they have to compensate for that by offering Fox that extra game. FSU & Miami and GT won't offset that by bringing in more viewers. If anything they are a net-neutral to Fox. We simply must retain the 9th conf game. If you were Fox would you pay the same for 8 SEC games as Big 12 games? Hell no. You will pay closer to it though if the SEC only offers 8 games plus an extra non-con vs. bum***** state. |
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02-18-2013, 12:30 PM | #6137 | |
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If the Big 12 can survive at 10 for a while, I don't see why FSU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, Duke/Va Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincy, NC State, Boston College, and Wake Forest couldn't keep it together for a while. They wouldn't have to last forever, just long enough for the GOR in the Big 12 to expire. At that time, Texas and Oklahoma would be free agents again, and TLN would be expiring. If Texas were to jump ship, you would have a lot of schools in the Big 12 looking for seats, and they would be competing with more desirable schools from that Big East/ACC hybrid. I don't think Iowa State and Texas Tech want to compete for spots against Florida State and Duke.
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02-18-2013, 12:33 PM | #6138 |
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Nice to see you guys still haven't figured what's going on yet...
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02-18-2013, 12:40 PM | #6139 | |
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As it sits, you can look at the conference schedule for the next decade, and there is literally only one game per year that you can expect with any degree of certainty to have national appeal. That is OU/Texas. (Frankly, that game has been a turd most years.) Just adding Florida State would immediately triple the number of games with national appeal. The Big 12, in my scenario, could be fat and happy for 12 years, or they can be simply full and secure for decades.
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02-18-2013, 01:03 PM | #6140 | |
Rabbi Goldmann
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All I'm saying is, Fox is going to determine what we do either way. There's a myth out there that "Bevo" controls the conference. Untrue. Fox does. |
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02-18-2013, 01:08 PM | #6141 | |
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02-18-2013, 01:12 PM | #6142 | |
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FOX is the main force behind this. They are the ones not in the SE market, so the value is there for them. If they are willing to pony up more cash and alter the deal, that's what drives everything, otherwise the incentive for the B12 to expand is not there. The GoR is not going to be the deal breaker in this scenario. Three of the four major conferences have GoRs, its not like it is some unknown entity. The B12 negotiates with prospective new members, but the B12 itself is guided by the networks as to what maximizes their potential contract. Its not rocket science.
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02-18-2013, 01:14 PM | #6143 |
Rabbi Goldmann
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True. And there's also confusion as to what the GOR is. It's not something Kansas and TCU "forced" on Texas to handcuff them from leaving. It's what Fox forced on Texas to handcuff them from leaving.
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02-18-2013, 01:17 PM | #6144 | |
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02-18-2013, 01:22 PM | #6145 |
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Of course not, all the conferences are structured differently. But, they are all geared towards securing the highest contract they can make with the various networks. We don't have a B12 Network, so our GoR is going to function differently than the B1G or PAC. It doesn't mean they don't accomplish the same thing.
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02-18-2013, 01:37 PM | #6146 | |
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02-18-2013, 02:02 PM | #6147 | |
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You don't look to join a country club but then demand they change their benefits before you do. They are the potential applicants, not the other way around.
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02-18-2013, 02:17 PM | #6148 | |
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Your country club analogy isn't really accurate. If other, more exclusive country clubs are expanding and driving lesser clubs out of business while yours has been bleeding members, you might drop the initial membership fee in order to attract potential members. It comes down to the fact that the Big 12 is strong today, but they are very vulnerable when the GOR expires because they haven't done anything to make themselves more attractive to the anchor members. The Longhorn Network contract expires shortly before the GOR. At the moment, it doesn't look like ESPN would have any reason to renew that money pit. Suddenly, nothing is keeping Texas from bolting to the PAC. I have a tough time believing Texas remains in the conference long term unless some big programs join the fold. Right now, the only team in the conference Texas cares about having on the schedule is Oklahoma, and Oklahoma would probably move with Texas, anyway. The Big 12 is in a pretty good spot if the ACC gets raided, but time is on the side of the "orphans" in that scenario. If they can wait out the Big 12 GOR, all bets are off.
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02-18-2013, 02:29 PM | #6149 | |
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I know everyone thinks Texas wants to leave, but they really gain very little by doing so. The PAC 10 is now the PAC 12, and there is a strong voting bloc AGAINST expansion. CU, Utah, and the Arizona schools don't want their access to California diminished, which under most expansion scenarios, happens. The PAC would have to do something really radical, like got to 20, in order to break up that voting bloc. Other schools are not going to dictate the terms, at least not on their own. They might go through the networks and say we'll come if these are the terms. Then it would be up to the networks to put the necessary pressure on the conference, if they felt like it was beneficial. My point it, its not up to the schools, and there is nothing inherently dissatisfying about the GoR issue. What most potential schools have hesitancy about is being on the far end of a Texas based conference. They're concerned about scheduling. They're concerned about "who comes with". The GoR is not a major factor here. Their desire to remain a eastern centric conference is.
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02-18-2013, 02:35 PM | #6150 | |
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Texas would have a ton to gain in the PAC versus the Big 12 in it's current form. Being in a conference with UCLA, USC, Oregon, etc. is much more appealing than the current marriage of convenience both athletically and academically.
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