*** Official Royals Repository, Part 3 ***

[duncan_idaho]

In this thread: All things related to the AL Champions.

Duncan's Official Team Record prediction: 90 wins
One month in: Looking strong
All Star Break: Looking strong, probably should adjust up to 93-94 wins.
Duncan's Official Team MVP prediction: Eric Hosmer
One month in: Upstaged by his best friend MIKE MOOTACOS, MAN. Tell us bout your hittin, bro!
All Star Break: Lorenzo Cain starting to run away with this one.

Division Preview
Clearly, overlooking the Twins was a mistake at this point. I still don't believe in that team long-term, but they're starting to get that Magic Season twinkle about them.

Detroit is toast. Garbage rotation beyond Price and Sanchez, Miggy out.

And Cleveland... Cleveland still is dangerous if it ever clicks offensively, because the starting pitching is good enough for them to real off a 15-5 stretch and get right back into the playoff picture.

The Royals will be a division winner IF ...
1) Ventura and Duffy combine for 375+ innings of high-quality work
2) Eric Hosmer delivers on his potential with a FULL season of success rather than bursts
3) The deeper bullpen lessens the critical load on Herrera, Davis and Holland
4) Lorenzo Cain stays healthy
5) Either Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales bounces back to 2013 form

The first of these is clearly not going to happen. The second looked good through the end of May but is now eating Cain's dust (Hosmer has still been improved this year, though, lessening his valley. If he has a really hot second half, he can get right back in it). Item three is definitely the case. Item four should probably be first at this point. And Morales has more than bounced back.

Duncan’s Top 20 for mid-season 2015:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Sean Manaea, LHP: I still believe in the upside here, even with the abbreviated start. 6-5 lefties with his combination of stuff and deception have the ability to pitch at the front of a rotation for a long time.
3. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Cody Reed, LHP: Reed has popped up this year, forcing an early promotion to Northwest Arkansas. His stuff is legit, with mid-90s heat and a wipeout slider. Control still needs work, but a promising young arm (that makes Almonte much more tradeable)
6. John Lamb, LHP: Lamb has had a career resurgence in 2015, putting him back on the prospect map. He’s dominating at AAA and will be in the rotation mix in 2016, unless he suffers another setback. Fastball is back, changeup is improving, still working on the ability to throw the slider and curve for strikes when down in the count.
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
8. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
9. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
10. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.

Spoiler!

11. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
12. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
13. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.
14. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
15. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
16. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
17. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
18. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
19. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
20. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

This is a bizarre team. If you look at our payroll, we are currently getting almost nothing from most the highest paid players.

Gordon, Rios, Infante, Vargas, Ventura, Medlen, and Hochevar equate to $50,000,000 in salary. Guthrie and Holland are obviously contributing, but they account for another $16,000,000. For all the talk about payrolls, we're getting most of our from about $40,000,000 worth of it.

I realize that all teams have dead money, but it's nearly impossible for me to wrap my head around the face that we are running away with the division despite having that much money tied up in that little production considering where we've been for so long.

Not to mention Dayton Moore deserves a statue for signing Perez to a 5/7 Mil deal. But this is what you get from homegrown players and players who have potential but aren't stars ala Cain and Esky

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

This is a bizarre team. If you look at our payroll, we are currently getting almost nothing from most the highest paid players.

Gordon, Rios, Infante, Vargas, Ventura, Medlen, and Hochevar equate to $50,000,000 in salary. Guthrie and Holland are obviously contributing, but they account for another $16,000,000. For all the talk about payrolls, we're getting most of our production from about $40,000,000 worth of it.

I realize that all teams have dead money, but it's nearly impossible for me to wrap my head around the face that we are running away with the division despite having that much money tied up in that little production considering where we've been for so long.

This same dead money spent on underwhelming veterans and non-producers that I've complained about as a Royals fan since last century. But it held ground when we had a sub $40 Mil payroll... I guess it works better when you spend like everyone else.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He still does some questionable things, but what he always got roasted for the most was his bullpen management. His collection of bullpen arms is so good now, it's hard to **** it up.

He also changed his approach to bullpen use in the playoffs last year. He's now willing to do things like bring in Wade Davis with two outs in an inning that wasn't his to begin with (or Herrera).

So ... Better team + evolving as a manager =less room for criticism.

One thing I have learned here is that PB will ALWAYS find something to criticize.

[Reaper16]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He still does some questionable things, but what he always got roasted for the most was his bullpen management. His collection of bullpen arms is so good now, it's hard to **** it up.

He also changed his approach to bullpen use in the playoffs last year. He's now willing to do things like bring in Wade Davis with two outs in an inning that wasn't his to begin with (or Herrera).

So ... Better team + evolving as a manager =less room for criticism.

That and us Royals fans have come to realize just how much the team looks up to Yost.

[Sure-Oz]

@jonmorosi: Sources: Royals considering Yovani Gallardo and Johnny Cueto, among many other options for their rotation. @FOXSports

[CoMoChief]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

One thing I have learned here is that PB will ALWAYS find something to criticize.

Well I think it's safe to say that Oakland playoff game saved Ned's stint as Royals manager. Then the Royals went 8-0 in the playoffs all the way to game 7 of the WS and now Ned is considered the best manager in Royals history .

Strange what 9 wins can do for ya.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Sure-Oz

@jonmorosi: Sources: Royals considering Yovani Gallardo and Johnny Cueto, among many other options for their rotation. @FOXSports

Gallardo is really interesting. The Rangers have gotten a good year out of him and probably want young pitching in return, so they match up well with KC in trade.

I'd place Gallardo right there with Latos, Leake, etc. good second-tier target.

[alnorth]

Now that Vargas is done, I think we're at the point where we have to add another SP.

[Nightfyre]

Do we need to look at a year and a half of control now that vargas is done for next year as well?

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by alnorth

Now that Vargas is done, I think we're at the point where we have to add another SP.

It would be nice, but I still don't see it as a must.

Volquez
Young
Duffy
Guthrie
Ventura
Medlen?
Lamb?

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Do we need to look at a year and a half of control now that vargas is done for next year as well?

I don't think thats a requirement, but the sellers need to be realistic about a 2 month rental.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

It would be nice, but I still don't see it as a must.

Volquez
Young
Duffy
Guthrie
Ventura
Medlen?
Lamb?

That is a very steep dropoff after Duffy. Even if we think Ventura's struggles are just small sample size (what happened to his FB?), I see 4 SP in that group, so we'd be counting on no more injuries. The Royals also don't seem to want to start Medlen or Lamb until 2017.

[Great Expectations]

I think Medlen, Lamb, and maybe Almonte could start games in September thru the playoffs.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by KevB

I get Parra, but I'd think Haren would be in the 10-20 range of pitchers we'd consider, and probably isn't worth giving up anything tbh. I don't think he improves what we currently have, other than adding depth.

Just to follow up with this because I agree with you that Haren is not a guy who would have been on my radar at all. Then I saw a little mention about him with the Royals. He's averaging 6.2 innings per start. Okay, that's nice but I don't care if you can throw a complete game every time you take the mound if you get hit hard and bleed runs.

Now, here's the possible logic in what value he could be in the rotation. He's a fly ball pitcher.
Actually, he's an extreme fly ball pitcher.

As in 2nd out of every pitcher in all of baseball. Just shy of half of his pitches that are put in play, at a little over 48%.



I don't need to walk anyone through the same song and dance about the impact and difference of having a giant park like the K along with our defense behind him in terms of possible success.

Is he the sexy pick? Obviously not, but Dayton has a nose for spotting tons of pitchers considered mediocre who have been major contributers. We would have been screwed this year if he hadn’t signed some low key guys for depth that has turned out to be some very shrewd personnel moves.

Seriously, Volquez, Young, Madison, Medlan (maybe). Vargas and JGuts well outperformed when initially signed. The list goes on, but the evidence just mentioned is proof enough that no one is really in a position to 2nd guess Moore.

Now, who knows what he will actually do- we'll certainly find out in 9 days.

I'm almost intrigued at the idea that even if they pick up one of the marquee pitchers before the deadline, it might not be a bad idea to insure your bet and get Haren too.

He'll cost peanuts to get in a trade. The Marlins would probably accept anything because it saves cash and any future talent to add to their system is always better than nothing. Plus, I doubt that many if any other teams are reaching out to inquire about him very seriously.

I like it because it also replaces Vargas, and they are then able to send Ventura down to get his head and mechanics straight. I honestly think that some time in Omaha is necessary for him to reevaluate and get a little perspective if you have any hope of seeing the Ventura who pitched in the playoffs show back up this season.

Taking a flyer on the guy costs us literally next to nothing.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Do we need to look at a year and a half of control now that vargas is done for next year as well?

I wouldn't let that dictate any trade you make. There will already be a good amount of competition for spots in the rotation in spring training. Plus, who knows what will be on the market during the offseason.