Team of Destiny?

[KChiefs1]

http://missouri.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=927121

Gabe DeArmond
PowerMizzou.com Publisher

BOISE, ID -- Sometimes, it just feels like it's your year. This was Missouri's year. I say this knowing full well there is a lot of said year remaining. But no matter what happens from here on out, this was a year Missouri basketball fans will not forget.

The Tigers started the season with an 86-65 win over Prairie View A&M. According to an unofficial head count I did at the game, 17 of you were there to see it.

Mizzou lost to Xavier by shooting somewhere near zero percent from the free throw line in the second half. Fans lost most of what little faith they might have had remaining.

Then the Tigers were railroaded by Illinois when they played "40 Minutes of Deer in Headlights" defense. Fans lost the rest of the faith.

They opened Big 12 play with a clunker at Nebraska. The faith was replaced by anger, indignation and worry that Mike Anderson could not win at Missouri.

And since that day? Well, it's been Missouri's year.

From Zaire Taylor's shot to beat Texas to Zaire Taylor's shot to beat Kansas to a near perfect first half against Kansas State to a near perfect two halves against Oklahoma. At some point, you had to start thinking someone was smiling on these Tigers.

And then came Oklahoma City. Missouri won. Oklahoma didn't. Kansas didn't. Texas A&M didn't. Missouri won again. And again. Big 12 Champions (yes, Jayhawk fans, look it up, that's what the trophy says). And now, well, there wasn't much doubt this was Missouri's year.

And then the Tigers got sent to Boise for the NCAA first and second rounds. And admit it, you doubted this was their year. See, it was Tyus Edney's year in Boise once. Since then, it's been Mario Chalmers' year, it's been Carmelo Anthony's year, it's been Dwyane Wade's year. Hell, one time, it was George Mason's year. But it's never been Missouri's year.

But sitting inside Taco Bell Arena (where, by the way, the media meal was tacos, but not from Taco Bell) on Sunday afternoon, you could come to no other conclusion. This is Missouri's year.

See, the Tigers had wasted a 15-point lead. I don't mean to discredit Marquette by saying that. Jerel McNeal is other-worldly. Wesley Matthews is going to be a really good player in the NBA. Lazar Hayward is a tough matchup for anyone. The Golden Eagles deserve worlds of credit for flipping the script on the Tigers and outscoring them 43-28 to forge a four-point lead late in the game.

Missouri was down four with a little less than two minutes to play. Frankly, any sane person that has seen any amount of Missouri basketball was fairly resigned to what was going to happen. Add it to Edney and the kicked ball and Northern Iowa and the Fifth Down and every other God-forsaken thing that has happened to this school's football and basketball teams in the last 20 years. Missouri was going to lose a 15-point lead and the Tigers were going to be the only three seed not to reach the Sweet 16.

And then Zaire Taylor stepped in the huddle.

"I heard one of our guys made the statement, we have been here before, fellas," Anderson said. "And when he said that, that told me our guys are going to buckle down and make some plays."

And that's exactly what they did. J.T. Tiller made two free throws. The Tigers forced a shot clock violation by Marquette just a fraction of a second before McNeal could get off a follow shot that would have given Marquette a four-point lead with 1:13 to play. Taylor rebounded a Leo Lyons miss. Lyons took the second chance, scored and got fouled. And he made a free throw. McNeal missed one.

Then Tiller drove and got fouled and went to the bench injured. Kim English came off the bench for two free throws. He made them. Hayward stepped over the baseline. Lyons made two more. The refs (for once) swallowed their whistles as Maurice Acker tried to buy a foul on DeMarre Carroll.

Missouri inbounded one final time and Carroll launched the ball skyward. The buzzer sounded. Missouri was going to the Sweet Sixteen.

If you didn't see it, the previous two paragraphs cannot describe exactly how improbable this win was. Everything had to go right for Missouri. The three-point play for Lyons was the only one all day. Every other time he'd been fouled, the ball rolled off the rim. The follow by McNeal was so close to in time the officials had to double check the television monitor to confirm their call. If the three-point heave from Jimmy Butler draws even a tick of iron, or if he shoots it a half second sooner, the Tigers are in a hole they can't climb out of. If McNeal doesn't miss a free throw, Missouri is playing from behind with 38 seconds to go and cannot hold the ball for 33 seconds. If English misses even one, Marquette can win with an Edney-like layup. Even still, the Eagles would have won with a three. The way McNeal had shot, few would have bet against him.

And yet, in the final 119 seconds, every one of those things fell in Missouri's favor.

I don't know if Missouri will make the first Final Four in school history. I don't know if they'll even beat Memphis. Those Tigers are really tough and they've got something to prove themselves. The run might end on Thursday. But it might not. And the more you watch this team play, the more you have to consider that possibility.

Missouri fans have watched while it was somebody else's year for a long, long time. Maybe, just maybe, it's the Tigers' turn. It sure seems like somebody somewhere is looking out for them.

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Mizzou versus Memphis -- statistically speaking..

I looked thru some numbers, and these are the ones I find most important.. FYI - don't find things like points per game or points given up per game as that important. Missouri would be very high on offense, and mediocre on defense. But that is a function of their TEMPO, not offensive or defensive efficiency. Some people don't like stats... I love them... thus this may bore some of you.

OFFENSE FIRST (there are around 300 teams)

FG% offense rank
Mizzou - 34
Memphis - 108
Comment -- A little surprised Memphis was this low. I realize they aren't a great shooting team, but figured they get enough good looks to have a higher percentage. About where I expected Mizzou to be. Mizzou isn't a great shooting team by any means, but given their style of play... they get some easy looks, which inflates their rank here a little higher than it would be if they didn't play this style.

3PT% rank
Mizzou - 110
Memphis - 212
Comment - neither very good here, although Memphis easily one of the worst in the country at shooting from deep

FT% rank
Mizzou - 221
Mempnhis - 147
Comment - Memphis is better than they were last year, but still not good. Obviously Mizzou has been even worse, and one of the worst in the country. That said, Mizzou has some games where they are very good from line. Kind of depends on Carroll.. Carroll either seems to hit most of them, or he gets where he can't hit anything.

Assist/Turnover ratio rank
Mizzou - 2
Memphis - 52
Comment - this is easily one of Mizzou top two strengths. They are fabulous at sharing the basketball, and amazing for a team that plays uptempo, rarely turning it over. Memphis appears average in this regard. Not a surprise given they probably are more of a "one on one" team. I don't think Memphis not sharing the basketball at a high level will hurt them alot versus Mizzou since you beat Mizzou by dribble driving through the press and to the hole.... not really on unselfish halfcourt offense.

Offensive efficiency as determined by Pomeroy - probably looks at points per possession or something like that
Mizzou - 17
Memphis - 25
Comment - no comment.

OVERALL OFFENSIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Independent of how these teams matchup versus each other, it's pretty fair to say that Mizzou is the better offensive team. They generally shoot the ball better, share the ball better and run a more efficient offense. However, when looking at Memphis actual weakness (shooting) against the way Mizzou plays... I think this is somewhat mitigated. Offensive efficiency, sharing the ball and Memphis relative shooting woes aren't as pronounced against a team like Mizzou that wants to play an uptempo game with a bunch of quick baskets for both teams.

DEFENSE (again, around 300 teams)

FG% Defense
Mizzou - 71
Memphis - 1
Comment - Mizzou's percentage is somewhat articifically deflated given their style of play. When you play like Mizzou, you will give up more layups.... no way around this. This shows Memphis is long, fast, and athletic defensively. They just make every shot you take a tough shot...

Rebounding Margin
Mizzou - 181
Memphis - 18
Comment - again, Mizzou rebounding margin, as with some other stats, are somewhat reflective of their style. When you double team guys all over the court, you inevitably leave some guys from the other team to go untouched to the basket... thus you're going to give up a high number of offensive rebounds... I'm sure Anderson believes we still give up too many, but with this style, there is no way around giving up more than usual. Really no comment on Memphis, other than to say they obviously are a good rebounding team.

Turnover margin -
Mizzou - 2
Memphis - 32
Comment - This along with assist/to ratio are what make Mizzou go. This is how they help offset for rebounding margin and allowing the other team to shoot a pretty high percentage. Memphis also seems pretty good here, which can be expected with their type of athletes.

Defensive efficiency by Pomeroy - this also is probably something like how many points you give up per possession
Mizzou - 9
Memphis - 1
Comment - both teams, speaking from a true defensive efficiency standpoint, are very good. Memphis is truly elite.

OVERALL DEFENSIVE STASTICAL ANALYSIS
Memphis is flat out an elite defensive team. In fact, unquestionably the BEST defensive team in the country. Mizzou has been very efficient offensively, and are very unselfish.... but at the end of the day, not overly talented. So unless Mizzou gets easy baskets, it's just hard to imagine Mizzou having a lot of success against Memphis in the halfcourt.

Overall analysis after looking at this... kind of looking from Mizzou perspective. I'm not sure how Anderson should approach this one.

Memphis has a freshmen point guard, who some say isn't a true point guard. That makes one believe that Mizzou's pressure "MAY" have an effect. However, if the pressure isn't working that well, it plays right into Memphis hands because they are long and athletic and not overly skilled from a shooting standpoint.... thus, Mizzou's style allows Memphis to just let their athletes go to work and play around the rim and you don't really take advantage of their shooting woes. So you say "back off the pressure" and make this a half court game, and make Memphis shoot and share the ball in the halfcourt. The issue with this is you would be changing your strategy that has mostly worked all season. You also would allow the most dominant defense in college basketball get set, and stifle your offense.

Both strategies have holes in them, but I'd go with what got you here.... with maybe one change. Play your full court style but drop back almost exclusively into a zone. You still play your game, and you make Memphis shoot when the game slows into halfcourt sets. Either way it's pretty tough, and if Memphis shoots well from deep they will win this one going away.... I don't believe there is anyway around that.

Unfortunately, if Mizzou shoots well, it doesn't necessarily mean they will win...but probably guarantees that they give Memphis all they can handle.