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Old 09-04-2012, 07:07 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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How pessimistic has this place become?
I've gotta be the guy who posts WF's prediction that the Chiefs win.

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflpicks2012_01early.php

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 42.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Preseason): Chiefs -1.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: This was supposed to be a great matchup. An improved Matt Ryan and a dominant Julio Jones versus a Kansas City defense that shut down Aaron Rodgers last December? Sign me up. Several weeks ago, this seemed like THE battle to watch on opening Sunday.

That's not the case anymore, unfortunately. Elite pass-rusher Tamba Hali has been suspended because of a marijuana arrest. Top cornerback Brandon Flowers will be a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. Stud inside linebacker Derrick Johnson should be able to play, but won't be 100 percent because of his own ankle malady.

With all of that in mind, it's difficult to envision the Chiefs having much luck against Atlanta's dynamic passing attack. Matt Ryan figures to have tons of time to throw without having to worry about Hali, and he'll easily connect with Jones on multiple occasions, thanks to the presumed absence of Flowers. Running the ball won't be much of an option because Michael Turner is completely finished, but the Falcons won't need to do that because their offense is now primarily aerially based.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs will have some issues defensively this week, but they should be able to move the chains pretty efficiently. They're going to run the ball as good as anyone this season, thanks to the dynamic tandem of the currently healthy Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis, as well as a bolstered offensive line with Eric Winston as a massive upgrade over the inept Barry Richardson at right tackle.

The Falcons were 12th in the NFL against the run last year, but that ranking will likely drop, thanks to Curtis Lofton's departure. Replacement Akeem Dent struggled a bit in the preseason, so I'm expecting the Chiefs to rip off big gains on the ground.

This will open up play-action opportunities for Matt Cassel, who will need them because he's not a good quarterback. He should at least be protected well, making the daunting task of battling cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Asante Samuel a bit easier. It also helps that starting receivers Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin have a very healthy size advantage over Atlanta's two corners. And not to be forgotten, Dexter McCluster is finally being utilized correctly out of the slot. I think he could be a PPR monster this year.

RECAP: This is a tough spot for the Falcons, who aren't nearly as good in outdoor games. Following this matchup against the "crappy" Chiefs, they have to deal with Peyton Manning's Broncos, Philip Rivers' Chargers and Cam Newton's Panthers. They won't be completely focused, especially now that Hali is out. And yes, teams do look past Week 1 games.

Despite missing Hali and possibly Flowers, I feel like the Chiefs are underrated. They run the ball extremely well, while Romeo Crennel is still a defensive mastermind who will have something up his sleeve for Ryan. I'd like Kansas City as my September NFL Pick of the Month if they were completely healthy, but this is still a multi-unit play for me.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.
The Falcons have the Broncos, Chargers and Panthers after this battle against the Chiefs, who weren't any good last year. They may not be 100-percent focused.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.
Opening Total: 41.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Falcons 17
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:27 PM   #91
Hammock Parties Hammock Parties is offline
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Neither Hillis nor Charles looked like shit at any point during the PS. Keep spinning. LOL.
Hillis had SEVEN CARRIES FOR 10 YARDS in two of the preseason games.

I like what he did in the 1st and 4th games but...come on.

It is a real stretch to say this running attack is elite.

They might be...but no evidence for it yet.
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:29 PM   #92
Pasta Little Brioni Pasta Little Brioni is offline
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Can't wait till the team takes Charles off the field in a crucial 3rd and 5 to run a draw with Draughn just to get him work!!!
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:46 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
Do you want me to take out Draughn's 1st-team carries against Seattle and St. Louis?

If so, you get this:

16 carries, 59 yards.

Yes, the average IS ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME when you take out Draughn's carries with the first team.

This was not close to an elite running game this preseason. It looked real good against Arizona. Other than that you're grasping at straws.
In "the most important Pre-season game" Hillis had 6 carries for 46 yards for a 7.7 ypc average. That's grasping at straws Huh? No, That's elite numbers.
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Old 09-05-2012, 02:50 PM   #94
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game 4 is the LEAST important game.

The reality with this team is that the running game looked pretty good in two games, but they were the least important preseason games, that indicate less towards the regular season.

In games two and three, which ALWAYS correlate more closely to regular season games, the team looked really average running the ball.

I would say right now the best read on the running game is that it will be decent. There is certainly no way you can look at preseason and say we were an elite running team.

Part of the problem with our offense in game three, and why Cassel looked so shitty, was because we weren't running the ball well. That's not a good sign in the MOST IMPORTANT PRESEASON GAME.
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Old 09-05-2012, 03:12 PM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
game 4 is the LEAST important game.

The reality with this team is that the running game looked pretty good in two games, but they were the least important preseason games, that indicate less towards the regular season.

In games two and three, which ALWAYS correlate more closely to regular season games, the team looked really average running the ball.

I would say right now the best read on the running game is that it will be decent. There is certainly no way you can look at preseason and say we were an elite running team.

Part of the problem with our offense in game three, and why Cassel looked so shitty, was because we weren't running the ball well. That's not a good sign in the MOST IMPORTANT PRESEASON GAME.
Whether we win or lose, Charles and Hillis are going to piss pound Atlanta on the ground.
Who do you believe are the top rushing attacks in the NFL?
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Old 09-05-2012, 03:19 PM   #96
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Whether we win or lose, Charles and Hillis are going to piss pound Atlanta on the ground.
Atlanta has one of the top run defenses in football, or at least they did last season. #6

I'd be surprised if we had much over 100 yards rushing Sunday. We're gonna be passing trying to catch up.
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Old 09-05-2012, 03:52 PM   #97
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Didn't Atlanta lose one of, if not their best defensive player?
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:32 PM   #98
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They've won 43 games in 4 years.

Losing Curtis Lofton isn't going to kill them.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:34 PM   #99
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Got it.


Losing arguably your best defensive player and leading tackler won't hurt your defense?
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:38 PM   #100
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VARSITY
did everyone forget this is a pessimistic thread. Clay seems to be the only one following the format now.
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Old 09-05-2012, 04:40 PM   #101
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Got it.


Losing arguably your best defensive player and leading tackler won't hurt your defense?
Only if it's the Chiefs
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Old 09-05-2012, 05:02 PM   #102
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They've won 43 games in 4 years.

Losing Curtis Lofton isn't going to kill them.
They lost at Pittsburgh in their opener with Charlie Batch at QB.

They lost in Chicago in their opener the year before that.

They lose in the playoffs every year. They choke in big games.

Mike Smith and matt Ryan choke on the road quite a bit.

The Falcons are not as good outside.

They have never won at Arrowhead.

They played an easy schedule last year.

They lost to Chicago, Tampa, and Houston - all were running teams last year

They fired their defensive coordinator

Their third string LB is starting and he has already had a concussion.

They run the nickel package 75% of the time.
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Old 09-05-2012, 05:02 PM   #103
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Got it.


Losing arguably your best defensive player and leading tackler won't hurt your defense?
Curtis Lofton was not their best player.

Hell, he was the 16th rated ILB on PFF.

The facts have defeated your weak troll.
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Old 09-05-2012, 05:03 PM   #104
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Who is their best defensive player then?


Not their leading tackler?
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Old 09-05-2012, 05:06 PM   #105
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If you put any stock in PFF, the best players on Atlanta's defense last year:

John Abraham
Sean Weatherspoon
Brent Grimes
Jonathan Babineaux
William Moore
Stephen Nicholas
Curtis Lofton

Adding Samuel, who was one of the highest-rated corners, was a good addition.
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