Mellinger: The Chiefs are a mess and Alex Smith is the messiest part

[Hammock Parties]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...186621438.html

The Chiefs stink and their quarterback stinks and at this point it’s hard to separate where one ends and the other begins. More and more, the quarterback is claiming more of the stink.

Andy Reid has been an NFL head coach since most of his players were in grade school. He is fond of saying they all have a piece in it, good and bad, and that’s true but so is this: some pieces are bigger than others.

Seven weeks ago, actual humans had actual conversations about Alex Smith being the frontrunner for NFL MVP, and the bat-spit craziest part — it was true.

Today, we live in a world in which the Chiefs lost 16-10 at home to the Bills, a team that gave up 101 points the last two games, so we could have a reasonable debate about whether this was worse than losing to the Giants last week. But here’s a point that’s beyond dispute:

Right now, Smith is the Chiefs’ worst player, and a season that was so promising not that long ago is free-falling until that changes.

“Certainly frustrated, for sure,” he said. “And a little shocked there, no doubt.”

He was talking more generally about the team, with five losses in their last six games and what should’ve been rock bottom last week followed immediately by more incompetence this week.

But he could’ve been talking about himself, too. Whatever order you want to put them in, Smith has played his four worst games of the season in the Chiefs’ last four games.

Through seven weeks: 72.4 completion percentage, 8.7 yards per attempt, 283 yards per game, 15 touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 120.5 passer rating. That’s higher than any quarterback in the league since 2011.

Last four games: 63.1 completion percentage, 6.3 yards per attempt, 224 yards per game, four touchdowns, four interceptions and a 78.7 passer rating. That’s basically Matt Cassel’s passer rating with the Chiefs (77.5).

What in the world.

“It wasn’t anything we haven’t seen or haven’t been successful against,” Reid said. “We were off. We’ve got to get through this, and get it turned around.”

The only way through this is for the quarterback to be better. That’s often an incomplete analysis, and it’s true that Smith is far from the only one playing poorly right now, but it’s impossible to watch this team and not be convinced his “piece of it” is disproportionally big and important.

He is missing basic throws, against no pressure, often in crucial spots. Once, a drive stalled after Smith threw an uncatchable pass to a wide-open Demarcus Robinson. Another drive ended when Robinson was again open, but Smith instead decided to run for it, eventually taking a shot to the spleen short of the sticks.

Travis Kelce was open for a potential touchdown — a truly nice call by Reid, to beat zone coverage — but Smith instead threw incomplete to Albert Wilson, who was covered, short of the first down.

This is just a sampling. Smith appears to have no confidence in his offensive line, sometimes dropping way too far back, which ruins his blockers’ angles. On other plays he breaks the pocket far too early, occasionally even when a simple step up would create more time and protection.

“Especially these last few weeks there’s been some plays you’d love to have back,” Smith said. “That’s football, though.”

The Chiefs were once the best team in football, and for more than a month now they’ve been one of the worst. This is a complicated sport, layered with adjustment on top of scheme on top of sight-read on top of human imperfection, but the most obvious difference between the awesome 2017 Chiefs and the horrendous 2017 Chiefs appears to be a lack of respect for their passing game.

Defenses are stacking toward the line of scrimmage, and moving aggressively and freely toward the backfield once there. It’s aggression beating aggression, because when the line is overwhelmed with defenders, some of the Chiefs’ downfield talent — particularly Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce — is negated.

This is, essentially, a bet that defenses are making that Smith can’t make the right adjustments in time to beat them.

That’s been a winning bet, over and over and over again.

Smith is extraordinarily intelligent. Not just “athlete” intelligent, either. He earned an economics degree in 2 1/2 years, and runs what’s been called a model charity. But there are times it appears he struggles to make blink-quick decisions. When he makes the right diagnosis before the snap, it works. When he’s surprised, it doesn’t.

Far too often over the last month, he’s been surprised.

Opposing defensive coordinators saw the Chiefs’ first five games and seem to have collectively resolved to stop the run and force Smith to beat them with quick decisions and downfield throws. He has been fundamentally unable to do this, and as long as that remains true the Chiefs aren’t getting any better.

You might be angry that it took me this long to mention Patrick Mahomes. Many of you want him in, and Smith benched. Reid addressed that after Sunday’s game, quickly dismissing the suggestion that he’s even considering a switch.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think Smith should be benched, even now. We’ve seen him be effective as recently as this season. Mahomes is less than four years removed from his high school prom. He was drafted as a raw prospect, thought by most to need at least a year to learn.

Mahomes is taking no snaps with the starters during practice. A switch from Smith to Mahomes would require major practice adjustments, which would signal the switch to a locker room that has always been reverential toward Smith.

There is a point when this could become a real thing. But there is no indication that at this point Mahomes is anything more than an option for 2018. If Smith keeps at this pace, and Mahomes does enough in practice to convince coaches and teammates, maybe this conversation changes. You can’t fool the guys in the room. But we’re not there yet.

The bigger problem for the Chiefs is that this whole thing was built around Smith, to bring out his best, and we’re going on a month of seeing his worst. The reasons for staying with him are more about the backup not being ready, which is a bad enough sign.

The worse sign is that the only ways out of this include Smith playing a lot better. Reid is right. They all have a piece in it. But the defense has consistently done its part, the line can only do so much, and the receivers aren’t being given much of a chance.

This is what a free-fall looks like. Smith is the one man best positioned to stop it. He was a crucial part of their success early, and he’s an undeniable part of their failures lately. At this point, believing anything will change is based more on faith and hope than logic and reason.

Of all the ways the Chiefs have let their fans down over the years, this one is new, at least.

[The Franchise]

There needs to be pressure on Smith. Even IF Reid knows that he's not going to replace him....he still needs to up Pat's reps with the first team offense in practice. Put that in Smith's head that they're getting Mahomes ready to be put in. Smith either un****s himself or he continues to shit down his leg. Either way....you're better prepared for the switch.

[raybec 4]

Originally Posted by thegame214

I really believe we lose and Mahomes is in.

Phantom injury of course being the reason.

We found a way to get Nick Foles in there when Alex was cleared we can get Pat in there somehow

Foles got in there because Alex chose not to play IIRC. Had to think of his long term future etc.

[CoMoChief]

To me the running game and in particular yards gained on 1st down is the biggest concern.

Alex Smith's game can work, but it requires a strong running game, and really the screen game is an extension to that. Chiefs just arent doing well in those areas. Kareem Hunt isnt getting shit on 1st down. Chiefs are always 2nd/3rd and long

The OL is not a tough mauling OL. They get pushed around a lot. Thats an issue in part. I think passblocking for most part is solid. But this is not a good run blocking team. Mind you Kareem Hunt is still just a rookie, a couple times yesterday holes opened up, one wouldve been a very long gain but he misread the hole only got 3 or 4 yards. He deserves blame too.

But ive grown tired of smith. Hes playing with zero confidence.

Chiefs are playing the worst football in nfl minus the browns. Mahomes cant be any worse than what the Chiefs are doing on offense right now....impossible.

[CoMoChief]

Alex Smith lost himself millions in the last couple wks.

[mcaj22]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

Alex Smith lost himself millions in the last couple wks.

and the Chiefs a decent draft pick in return for his lackluster services

[carcosa]

Originally Posted by Elvex Grcassel

There is virtually no difference between Smith and Matt Cassel...except that Smith has a much better team around him on both sides of the ball, a better front office, and better coaching.

Smith is a marginally better QB than my grandma, and she's been dead for 10 years.

Has she gotten worse at QB since she died

[carcosa]

Originally Posted by carcosa

Has she gotten worse at QB since she died

also sorry for your loss

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

To me the running game and in particular yards gained on 1st down is the biggest concern.

Alex Smith's game can work, but it requires a strong running game, and really the screen game is an extension to that. Chiefs just arent doing well in those areas. Kareem Hunt isnt getting shit on 1st down. Chiefs are always 2nd/3rd and long

The OL is not a tough mauling OL. They get pushed around a lot. Thats an issue in part. I think passblocking for most part is solid. But this is not a good run blocking team. Mind you Kareem Hunt is still just a rookie, a couple times yesterday holes opened up, one wouldve been a very long gain but he misread the hole only got 3 or 4 yards. He deserves blame too.

But ive grown tired of smith. Hes playing with zero confidence.

Chiefs are playing the worst football in nfl minus the browns. Mahomes cant be any worse than what the Chiefs are doing on offense right now....impossible.

The running game is failing BECAUSE of Smith. Teams don't respect him and won't respect him until he proves otherwise. Load the box and wait for Smith to either beat you deep or shit his pants. 90% of the time....he's shitting his pants.

Alex Smith cost Kareem Hunt the Rookie of the Year award.

[carcosa]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

The running game is failing BECAUSE of Smith. Teams don't respect him and won't respect him until he proves otherwise. Load the box and wait for Smith to either beat you deep or shit his pants. 90% of the time....he's shitting his pants.

Alex Smith cost Kareem Hunt the Rookie of the Year award.

Thanks for this post. I agree with it.

[ptlyon]

Originally Posted by CoMoChief

To me the running game and in particular yards gained on 1st down is the biggest concern.

Alex Smith's game can work, but it requires a strong running game, and really the screen game is an extension to that. Chiefs just arent doing well in those areas. Kareem Hunt isnt getting shit on 1st down. Chiefs are always 2nd/3rd and long

This. This is the ****ing problem. Chiefs run on first down almost every ****ing time.

First offensive play yesterday I called it. Yep. Up the middle for what, two?

Part of the problem is Smith not going downfield. The other is even I can call a defense against Andy ****ing Reid.

[Tribal Warfare]

Originally Posted by ptlyon

This. This is the ****ing problem. Chiefs run on first down almost every ****ing time.

First offensive play yesterday I called it. Yep. Up the middle for what, two?

Part of the problem is Smith not going downfield. The other is even I can call a defense against Andy ****ing Reid.

The problem is Alex unable executing passing plays under center to loosen up the rush and run defense.

The Chiefs telegraph when they run the ball due to Alex's limitations. Thus the opposition is
is keying on and collapsing running lanes with 8 man fronts