How Long Will America Lead the World?

[jAZ]

I guess this is a "Part 2" to this thread...

Intel's Andy Grove is more blunt. "America ... [is going] down the tubes," he says, "and the worst part is nobody knows it. They're all in denial, patting themselves on the back, as the Titanic heads for the iceberg full speed ahead."

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13123358/site/newsweek/

How Long Will America Lead the World?

The United States is still the dominant force in technology, innovation, productivity and profits. But Americans don't quite realize how fast the rest of the world is catching up.

By Fareed Zakaria
Newsweek

June 12, 2006 issue - Queen Victoria's Diamond Jubilee, held in London on June 22, 1897, was one of the grandest fetes the world has ever seen: 46,000 troops and 11 colonial prime ministers arrived from the four corners of the earth to pay homage to their sovereign. The event was as much a celebration of Victoria's 60 years on the throne as it was of Britain's superpower status. In 1897, Queen Victoria ruled over a quarter of the world's population and a fifth of its territory, all connected by the latest marvel of British technology, the telegraph, and patrolled by the Royal Navy, which was larger than the next two navies put together. "The world took note," says the historian Karl Meyer. The New York Times gushed: "We are a part ... of the Greater Britain which seems so plainly destined to dominate this planet'."

An 8-year-old boy, Arnold Toynbee, who became a great historian, watched the parade while sitting on his uncle's shoulders. "I remember the atmosphere," he later wrote. "It was: well, here we are on the top of the world, and we have arrived at this peak to stay there—forever! There is, of course, a thing called history, but history is something unpleasant that happens to other people."

Well, Americans have replaced Britons atop the world, and we are now worried that history is happening to us. History has arrived in the form of "Three Billion New Capitalists," as Clyde Prestowitz's recent book puts it, people from countries like China, India and the former Soviet Union, which all once scorned the global market economy but are now enthusiastic and increasingly sophisticated participants in it. They are poorer, hungrier and in some cases well trained, and will inevitably compete with Americans and America for a slice of the pie. A Goldman Sachs study concludes that by 2045, China will be the largest economy in the world, replacing the United States.

It is not just writers like Prestowitz who are sounding alarms. Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of GE, reflects on the growing competence and cost advantage of countries like China and even Mexico and says, "It's unclear how many manufacturers will choose to keep their businesses in the United States." Intel's Andy Grove is more blunt. "America ... [is going] down the tubes," he says, "and the worst part is nobody knows it. They're all in denial, patting themselves on the back, as the Titanic heads for the iceberg full speed ahead."

Much of the concern centers on the erosion of science and technology in the U.S., particularly in education. Eight months ago, the national academies of sciences, engineering and medicine came together to put out a report that argued that the "scientific and technical building blocks of our economic leadership are eroding at a time when many nations are gathering strength." President Bush has also jumped onto the competitiveness issue and recently proposed increases in funding certain science programs. (He has not, however, reversed a steady decline in funding for biomedical sciences.) Some speak of these new challenges with an air of fatalism. The national academies' report points out that China and India combined graduate 950,000 engineers every year, compared with 70,000 in America; that for the cost of one chemist or engineer in the U.S. a company could hire five chemists in China or 11 engineers in India; that of the 120 $1 billion-plus chemical plants being built around the world one is in the United States and 50 are in China.

There are some who see the decline of science and technology as part of a larger cultural decay. A country that once adhered to a Puritan ethic of delayed gratification has become one that revels in instant pleasures. We're losing interest in the basics—math, manufacturing, hard work, savings—and becoming a postindustrial society that specializes in consumption and leisure. "More people will graduate in the United States in 2006 with sports-exercise degrees than electrical-engineering degrees," says Immelt. "So, if we want to be the massage capital of the world, we're well on our way."


There is a puzzle in all this, however, which is that these trends and features have been around for a while, and they do not seem to have had an impact—so far at least—on the bottom line, which is GDP growth. Over the past 20 years, America's growth rate has averaged just over 3 percent, a full percentage point higher than that of Germany and France. (Japan averaged 2.3 percent over the same period.) Productivity growth, the elixir of modern economics, has been over 2.5 percent for a decade now, again a full percentage point higher than the European average. In 1980, the United States made up 22 percent of world output; today that has risen to 29 percent. The U.S. is currently ranked the second most competitive economy in the world (by the World Economic Forum), and is first in technology and innovation, first in technological readiness, first in company spending for research and technology and first in the quality of its research institutions. China does not come within 30 countries of the U.S. on any of these points, and India breaks the top 10 on only one count: the availability of scientists and engineers. In virtually every sector that advanced industrial countries participate in, U.S. firms lead the world in productivity and profits.

The situation with regard to higher education is even more dramatic. A new report, "The Future of European Universities," from the London-based Center for European Reform, points out that of the world's 20 top universities, 18 are American. The U.S. invests 2.6 percent of its GDP on higher education, compared with 1.2 percent in Europe and 1.1 percent in Japan. The situation in the sciences is particularly striking. A list of where the world's 1,000 best computer scientists were educated shows that the top 10 schools were all American. Our spending on R&D remains higher than Europe's, and our collaborations between business and educational institutions are unmatched anywhere in the world. America remains by far the most attractive destination for students, taking 30 percent of the total number of foreign students globally. These advantages will not be erased easily because the structure of European and Japanese universities—mostly state-run bureaucracies—is unlikely to change. And while China and India are creating new institutions, it is not that easy to create a world-class university out of whole cloth in a few decades.

(snip)

The best evidence of this lack of fear is that no one is willing to talk about any kind of serious solutions that impose any pain on society. Politicians talk a great deal about competitiveness and propose new programs and initiatives. But the proposals are small potatoes compared with, say, farm subsidies, and no one would ever suggest trimming the latter to dramatically increase spending on the sciences. The great competitive problems that the American economy faces would require strong and sometimes unpleasant medicine. Our entitlement programs are set to bankrupt the country, the health-care system is an expensive time bomb, our savings rate is zero, we are borrowing 80 percent of the world's savings and our national bill for litigation is now larger than for research and development. None of these problems is a deep-seated cultural mark of decay. They are products of government policy. Different policies could easily correct them. But taking such steps means doing something that is hard and unpopular.

The genius of America's success is that the United States is a rich country with many of the attributes of a scrappy, developing society. It is open, flexible and adventurous, often unmindful of history and tradition. Its people work hard, putting in longer hours than those in other rich countries. Much of this has do to with the history and culture of the society. A huge amount of it has to do with immigration, which keeps America constantly renewed by streams of hardworking people, desperate to succeed. Science laboratories in America are more than half filled with foreign students and immigrants. Without them, America's leadership position in the sciences would collapse. That is why America, alone among industrial nations, has been able to do the nearly impossible: renew its power and stay at the top of the game for a century now. We can expand our science programs—and we should—but we will never be able to compete with India and China in the production of engineers. No matter what we do, they will have more, and cheaper, labor. What we can do is take the best features of the America system—openness, innovation, immigration and flexibility—and enhance them, so that they can respond to new challenges by creating new industries, new technologies and new jobs, as we have in the past.

Our greatest danger is that when the American public does begin to get scared, they will try to shut down the very features of the country that have made it so successful. They will want to shut out foreign companies, be less welcoming to immigrants and close themselves off from competition and collaboration. Over the past year there have already been growing paranoia on all these fronts. If we go down this path, we will remain a rich country and a stable one. We will be less troubled by the jarring changes that the new world is pushing forward. But like Britain after Queen Victoria's reign, it will be a future of slow, steady national decline. History will happen to us after all.

(full article at the link above)

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by Psyko Tek

HOW we really beat communisum...

cable TV and rock music

the same will americaniaze china

our weapons now our video games and the internet.

China has put the clamps on google but they have good hackers and so do we...


can't stop the signal

Or capitalism. We could outspend the Ruskies, and very soon China will be able to outspend us as well as outnumber us.

I'm willing to bet America will have committed suicide long before the Chinese land in Cali...

[greg63]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Or capitalism. We could outspend the Ruskies, and very soon China will be able to outspend us as well as outnumber us.

I'm willing to bet America will have committed suicide long before the Chinese land in Cali...

Calling Dr. Jack...

[Bugeater]

Are we dead yet?

[J Diddy]

Fug this.

To say that we are doomed is to say that our children have no hope of success. I simply will not agree to this, or any lifetime, that 1 person can not change the world.


I have the solution, he's 4 and sleeping on my lap right now and he has the ability to do so.

[Psyko Tek]

Originally Posted by Rausch

Or capitalism. We could outspend the Ruskies, and very soon China will be able to outspend us as well as outnumber us.

I'm willing to bet America will have committed suicide long before the Chinese land in Cali...

only if we keep sending manufacturing .....


this country was great when we where making thunderbirds

[J Diddy]

Originally Posted by Psyko Tek

only if we keep sending manufacturing .....


this country was great when we where making thunderbirds

This country still is great.

[ChiefaRoo]

Originally Posted by DaFace

You're still talking short-term benefits here. I won't argue that we haven't seen the most benefit from the internet so far. However, to assume that just because we came up with it we will always have control over it is shortsighted at best and foolhardy at worst. All I can say is that if you are planning strategy for a company based on the assumption that we'll always be the best, you've got a rough ride coming.

P.S. I have no idea what Coors can silo you're referring to.

The silo beer can? - It's on 35 on the South side of the City as you come up from the South. I thinks it's an Emporia landmark.

I think we really agree. I've not said and don't think anyone should plan on things staying the same in the business world. Things change and that's why taking the next step in a given technology is important. But again, America's greatest strength is adapting and changing. We do it all the time in all parts of our culture and in the business world. More importantly we invent the future and the rest of the world follows whatever new reality that comes along. However, lets be clear you can't argue that since we invented the Internet it hasn't spawned incredible wealth for America. Therefore the real question is where is the next new business opportunities based of a tech. breakthroughs coming from? No country can touch our technology combined with our economy and backed by the rule of law.

Facts

1) The US economy is the largest in the world and is in no danger of being overtaken (Japan is second) It'll take the Chinese 40 years to catch us assuming they continue to develop and they won't unless they become a democracy with the rule of law as their foundation.

2) The US military is the strongest and most technologically advanced in the world (because of our technology lead in business) for those of you who think we can't build anything worth a shite (like cars, tv's etc) why is it we can build Stealth bombers, Space Vehichles, Intergrated Battle Nets, UAV's, UCAVS, excellent commercial airplances etc? This is technology at it's highest level. The reason we don't build TV, cars, steel production etc. as well has to do with the legacy structure of those businesses.

3)We live in a fantastic part of the world with abundant resources, available land and stable neighbors

4)Way of life - Our constitutional Republic and rule of law is as good of a way of living as their is in the world. In fact our constitution and the three branches of Govt. structure is the most evolved form of Govt. on the planet. NOTE: Even though we are not the oldest country in the world we are the oldest democracy in the world.

The USA is not a perfect country but in the end we are the greatest country that has EVER existed on this planet.

Who's with me?

[ChiefaRoo]

Originally Posted by J Diddy

Fug this.

To say that we are doomed is to say that our children have no hope of success. I simply will not agree to this, or any lifetime, that 1 person can not change the world.


I have the solution, he's 4 and sleeping on my lap right now and he has the ability to do so.

RIGHT!

[ChiefaRoo]

Originally Posted by Psyko Tek

only if we keep sending manufacturing .....


this country was great when we where making thunderbirds

Ok so now we make software (Microsoft) and distribute consumer goods (Wal-Mart) all over the world.

FYI - Wal-Mart is the largest company in the World and was started by a good ole' boy living in the hills of Arkansas. Wal-Mart's annual revenue is greater than many countries .

Thunderbirds are obsolete. You sound like the guy who lamented the passing of the buggy because it put the buggy whip companies out of business.

[StcChief]

Originally Posted by Psyko Tek

making thunderbirds

Bob Segar... whoops wrong thread