Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs GM John Dorsey explains plan for No. 1 pick - Page 7

ShowtimeSBMVP · 04-04-2013, 12:53 PM

By Albert Breer
Reporter, NFL.com and NFL Network
Published: April 4, 2013 at 02:28 p.m.
Updated: April 4, 2013 at 02:42 p.m.
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KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Relaxed and easygoing as he might be on this day, Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey had to know the question was coming, particularly since West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith's flight into town was already airborne.
Mock draft central

In his first year on the job, Dorsey has the draft's first pick. His move will set the table for everyone else, and his job is to get the most value out of that commodity. The best way to do that, of course, is to generate a market for the pick by manufacturing the impression that the Chiefs, in fact, like everyone.

And as I floated that well-worn idea to Dorsey, his back straightened and he stopped me.

"It's not creating a belief, it's the truth," Dorsey sharply responded. "We've said all along it's a process, and that process will not be finalized, that board will not be set, until four days before the draft. That's the way that whole process works itself out. There are different phases that you go through. I mean, right now, I just walked downstairs and we're in a different phase right now. We're going back as a group and assessing all the different positions."

Still, there's very little question that the focus in Kansas City is squarely on the first pick -- the Chiefs' aren't scheduled to pick again until No. 63 overall -- and that focus is now narrowing.

It wouldn't make much sense for Dorsey and the Chiefs to tip their hand now on exactly who they're targeting, since, again, that might limit the value of the pick itself. But internally, there has been a process of elimination and an identification of "finalists" with the draft three weeks away.

"True contenders?" Dorsey quizzically uttered, before pausing and counting them in his head. "We've gotten it down to four."

*****

There's a shell game to this final phase of it, too.

Yes, the Chiefs brought in Smith, but they already gave up two high picks, including the 34th overall selection in this draft, to acquire Alex Smith from the San Francisco 49ers. That trade, plus the split opinion league-wide on Smith's ability, cast plenty of doubt on the possibility of Kansas City taking the plunge on the West Virginia star -- doubt that Dorsey does his best to dispel.

"There always can be a quarterback," he said. "We're gonna take the best player. I stand by that. And what I use as an example is that we were lucky enough to get Aaron Rodgers (in Green Bay). We were questioned about that, but we stood patiently for three years with him. We can stand patiently another three if we have to. At the end of the day, you want to do what's best for your organization, present and future. And if it happens to be the quarterback, we'll take the quarterback."

On the topic of Smith, Dorsey added: "Physically, he was very impressive at the combine, and we watched his pro day three times. When he threw, it was very impressive."

But if it's not the quarterback? That's where it gets interesting, because the guys who seem like better Chiefs fits aren't exactly being courted in the same manner Geno has been in K.C.

With left tackle Branden Albert's future uncertain, Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel and Central Michigan's Eric Fisher both would seem to be firmly in the mix. Neither is slated to visit. The Chiefs also spent considerable time kicking the tires on Oregon's Dion Jordan and Florida's Sharrif Floyd after the NFL Scouting Combine. Yet, those two aren't scheduled either, at least at this point, to go to Kansas City and meet the brass.

This could all be part of the club gaming the system, and other teams.

Internally, obviously, there are answers to all these questions. Every day, Dorsey sits down with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid at 6:30 in the morning, again at lunch and a final time at night to talk things over. In the final 10 days, the GM says, Reid will become more involved in draft meetings, as the scouts trickle in with their field work complete. The hope is, by then, Dorsey has been sold on one of the four.

"In a second, that could happen," Dorsey explained. "Sitting down and overwhelming somebody with their depth of knowledge of the offensive scheme and how quick they can put it up, and combine that with the on-the-field skills, and you go, 'Holy s---, he's got it.' It could be an interview at the combine, it could be his pro day at the school. There are different variables, and all of a sudden the light goes on and you're going, 'That's the guy!' It happens in a multitude of ways."

Whether that moment of clarity comes or not, Dorsey continued, there needs to "come a point after you sit here and listen to all the scouts, you sit and listen to the coaches, you sit and talk with the medical staff, and then you sit and talk with the head coach, and then you say, 'This is the guy, and here's why.' And everyone says, 'OK.' Then you know that's the guy."

*****

Win a chance to announce a pick live at the 2013 NFL Draft. Enter now!

And if your head isn't spinning quite enough yet, there's also a chance that the Chiefs a) aren't sold on any of the guys there or b) simply believe there's better value drafting eighth or 10th or 12th. In either case, they might test the trade waters.

For now, Dorsey is willing to admit he's open to entertaining the idea.

"Yeah," Dorsey said. "I'm open to what's best for this organization. I know I have the option to take the best player there. But if somebody calls me up and says, 'We're willing to move up, here's what we have to offer,' I see it, weigh it, listen to compensation and make a decision on what's best."

The new GM spent the last 22 seasons working his way up through the Packers' personnel department. The average draft slot for Green Bay during that span? No. 20. Not only has Dorsey not worked for a team picking first before, but he's only been a part of the process with four top-10 picks in his entire scouting career: CB Terrell Buckley (No. 5 overall in 1992), Jamal Reynolds (10, 2001), A.J. Hawk (5, 2006) and B.J. Raji (9, 2009).

That makes these waters a bit uncharted for him. He knows there are different dynamics with it. He mentioned Rodgers again as a model of a player who handled the kind of pressure the first pick will be under (though he wasn't the first pick, he was replacing a legend), and said, "I think any one of the four guys that we're targeting right now can handle that."

He's also aware that, as a first-time GM, his actions on this pick will loom large when his prowess as a decision-maker is assessed.

At least outwardly, though, he's trying to look at the top pick like any other selection.

"A personnel guy always wants to get his pick right," Dorsey said. "We live that every year. We want to make sure the pick is right. This one happens to be the first pick in the draft. We're gonna try to make it right. You guys can put the pressure on us -- 'Holy crap, it's the No. 1 pick!' It's the No. 1 pick. We're gonna do the best we can."

And as the process typically proves, getting the most out of a top pick often goes far beyond simply identifying a top player

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 1m

Nugget from my KC/Dorsey story -- Geno visited Chiefs. But Joeckel, Fisher, Floyd, Jordan aren't slated to. #Poker http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap

**SAUTO** · 04-04-2013, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dtchiefs4life

"In a second, that could happen," Dorsey explained. "Sitting down and overwhelming somebody with their depth of knowledge of the offensive scheme and how quick they can put it up, and combine that with the on-the-field skills, and you go, 'Holy s---, he's got it.' It could be an interview at the combine, it could be his pro day at the school. There are different variables, and all of a sudden the light goes on and you're going, 'That's the guy!' It happens in a multitude of ways."

This is it, thanks my phone wouldn't edit that long assed post. Lol.

wonder if he said this to make other teams think qb?

It sure made me think qb
Posted via Mobile Device

penbrook · 04-04-2013, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dtchiefs4life

I thought Dorsey said it's down to 4 players?

Ok name me 1 more offensive player we would consider.

AlexSmithDynasty · 04-04-2013, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by penbook

Kiper did say Joeckel would be a mid first round to late first round pick in a normal draft.

You're cherry picking to try and prove your point, when asked about what Kiper said about Geno you said he has him going #4 to the Eagles which is true. But that's Kiper's prediction for where he goes not his opinion of where he should go. Kiper said before he doesn't think Geno should go in the first round. Then you said Kiper has Joeckel as a mid first round talent, but where does he have a prediction for Joeckel to go? He has him going #1 overall to the Chiefs. By the logic your applying to try and prove Geno's talent that logic would have Joeckel as best player available because Kiper has him mocked #1 to the Chiefs.

Mother****erJones · 04-04-2013, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

This is it, thanks my phone wouldn't edit that long assed post. Lol.

wonder if he said this to make other teams think qb?

It sure made me think qb
Posted via Mobile Device

Ya its a bitch to try and quote on a phone. Ya it did. This is the month of lies. Hard to believe anything they say. If their lips are moving, they are lying.

AdumbGuy · 04-04-2013, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dtchiefs4life

"In a second, that could happen," Dorsey explained. "Sitting down and overwhelming somebody with their depth of knowledge of the offensive scheme and how quick they can put it up, and combine that with the on-the-field skills, and you go, 'Holy s---, he's got it.' It could be an interview at the combine, it could be his pro day at the school. There are different variables, and all of a sudden the light goes on and you're going, 'That's the guy!' It happens in a multitude of ways."

This paragraph more than anything else gives me renewed Geno hope. How often is a LT expected to know complex offensive schemes. A center, perhaps, but a LT?

Nightfyre · 04-04-2013, 05:46 PM

If the Chiefs really like the long-term outlook on Geno, they should draft him. The fact of the matter is that a team will ultimately only go as far as their QB takes them. At some point in the playoffs, a QB will have to pick up his entire goddamn team and drag them across the goal-line. Alex Smith is not that guy.

penbrook · 04-04-2013, 05:48 PM

B14ckmon wont like this quote.

ShowtimeSBMVP · 04-04-2013, 05:50 PM

After free-agency shakeout, Geno a lock to be picked in top five
April 3, 2013 10:40 PM ET

104 | Comments

Geno Smith will be a top-five draft pick. There isn't any doubt about it.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go in the top three. Specifically, to Jacksonville second overall.

There might finally be some real intrigue about which player goes first overall -- I would be stunned if the Chiefs don't take a left tackle assuming they can't trade the pick -- and it is one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory in that regard. But this idea that no quarterback gets drafted high, now, with so many quarterbacks changing teams and clubs trading for, or signing veterans, is misguided.
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Too many teams have too much legitimate interest in Smith, the standout from West Virginia. In reality, with the quarterback dust essentially settled now in terms of free agency and trades, Smith's stock will only rise the rest of this month. He has certain undeniable traits working in his favor, there remain a ton of teams that still are anything but settled on a quarterback on a long-term basis, and these top draft picks are just so damn cheap these days that it will continue to entice teams to try to trade into the top five.

So anyone pretending that because Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn now have new teams that somehow Geno Smith has been devalued just don't get it. Anyone who thinks that the Cardinals, with the seventh overall pick, are now deeply committed to Palmer as their future at quarterback, and the Raiders, picking third, are now married to Flynn, and Kevin Kolb is the solution for the Bills, etc., etc., either haven't taken a real look at those contracts or simply do not understand the difference between taking a flier on a guy to be a bridge quarterback and finding a new face of the franchise.

Let's keep the following in mind:

Smith is, without a doubt, the top quarterback prospect in this draft. Period. No debate. Nothing he has done between his final college game and his pro day has changed that. He is the only sure-fire quarterback prospect in the top half of the first round. Even his harshest, most simplistic critic -- you know, the kind of guy who would lob the same shoddy jabs at Smith this week that he lobbed a few years back at Cam Newton -- would have to admit that unlike most of the past few years, there is no 1B to Smith's 1A. He is it at the top of the first round. (And, for the record, teams that have done their work on Smith have no concerns about character or work ethic. It's rather ludicrous in this situation.)

That will do nothing but continue to push up his value.

Once he's selected, it's a total crapshoot at this position, and when you consider that a good quarter of the league would still love to upgrade at quarterback if they could, that, too, works in Smith's favor. And we need only look back and see how quarterbacks with some glaring warts, like Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, have been pushed up the draft board recently to see just how far teams are willing to reach if they need a passer.

Then, consider how smart the Panthers (Newton), Seahawks (Russell Wilson), 49ers (Colin Kaepernick), Bengals (Andy Dalton), Redskins (Robert Griffin III) and others look for finding quarterbacks under this new CBA at a drastically reduced rate, freeing them to pump cap space and assets en masse into other positions.

It's basically bust insurance for teams. So when you consider how cheap the player is, and how relatively cheap it can be to move up into the top 10 or top five to get there ... again, these are factors that will continue to pump Smith up. And, keep in mind how many teams in the top 10, and five, are willing to move down, and Smith remains a riser.

Furthermore, this might be the weakest class in 20 years in terms of top-five talent. In fact, many scouts would tell you it's a three-player draft in that range -- the two left tackles (Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher) and Smith. It's not loaded with once-in-a-generation talent or the next Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden or Adrian Peterson. So there will be demand to get one of these three players, and there are plenty of needy teams, and say what you want about the knocks on these three prospects, but there is even more uncertainty and bigger question marks about whoever is worthy of going fourth, or fifth or sixth.

Sure, the Chiefs won't take Smith (not after overpaying the 49ers to acquire Alex Smith), and I know some are saying all of the attention the Jaguars have spent with him is a bit of a smokescreen. But then again, the Jags' new brass has no ties to Gabbert, they just watched him get two coaches fired in two years, more or less, and yet they opted to stay out of the hunt for Flynn (who has ties to their head coach), and Kolb, whom they loved coming out of college, and Smith (whose quarterback coach in San Fran, Greg Roman, is very good friends with Jags GM Dave Caldwell), and Palmer and others. That's very telling. (And don't give me any of this crap about backup Chad Henne -- he's just a guy).

In fact, everything I have heard leads me to believe the real smoke screen is the idea that there has been a rallying behind Gabbert. To the contrary, his sense of entitlement, lack of production/development, attitude, and struggles in the face of the pass rush are just some of the reasons why he might never see the fourth year of his rookie contract in Jacksonville. So the Jags are very much in the hunt for their next quarterback, they won't do any better than Smith in this draft, they're likely to be the first quarterback-needy team with the chance to take him, and passing on him could prove to be a huge mistake.

So I believe the Jags are spending all of this time, energy and resources on him for a reason beyond hoping to drum up interest in the second overall pick. How could a small-market team like this, desperate for an identity and someone for fans to gravitate to, not be interested in the best amateur quarterback in the country? How could they not look at a fellow small market team like the Panthers, with Newton, and not think what if? (And by no means am I saying that Smith will do anything close to what Newton has, but the continued success of athletic rookie quarterbacks is not going unnoticed.)

And the Raiders are in the same situation. Flynn is a guy for now, and possibly for tomorrow, but any quarterback you can nab essentially for a fifth-round pick can't be a given. I'm not ruling them out. Do I think the Eagles take him? My gut says no, but they're not doing all of this due diligence on him as a favor, either. Michael Vick is a year-to-year proposition, Nick Foles is a developmental guy most likely, and if Smith looks like the best fit to be Chip Kelly's long-term guy, then it could happen.

The Browns (6), Cardinals (7), Bills (8) and Jets (9) are both dealing with band-aid quarterbacks but don't have a long-term commitment to any passer. I'm sorry, people, that looks like a ton of demand and the most limited of supply -- one quarterback worthy of being taken in the top 10. Bluff or not, that's more than enough of a backdrop to make at least one team feel like it might have to trade up to guarantee it gets Smith.

How silly will all of these teams look if they pass on a chance to take him? It's just not happening.

So to posit that this kid someone now is a question mark to go in the top 15 is beyond ridiculous. No way that many teams are passing on him, and in the end, a few names might be called before his at Radio City Music Hall, but trust me, it will only be a few.

Mother****erJones · 04-04-2013, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdumbGuy

This paragraph more than anything else gives me renewed Geno hope. How often is a LT expected to know complex offensive schemes. A center, perhaps, but a LT?

"In a second, that could happen," Dorsey explained. "Sitting down and overwhelming somebody with their depth of knowledge of the offensive scheme and how quick they can put it up, and combine that with the on-the-field skills, and you go, 'Holy s---, he's got it.' It could be an interview at the combine, it could be his pro day at the school. There are different variables, and all of a sudden the light goes on and you're going, 'That's the guy!' It happens in a multitude of ways."

The bolded part is what really stuck out to me. How quickly they can put it up. Meaning the white board where plays are drawn up.

Gravedigger · 04-04-2013, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexSmithDynasty

You're cherry picking to try and prove your point, when asked about what Kiper said about Geno you said he has him going #4 to the Eagles which is true. But that's Kiper's prediction for where he goes not his opinion of where he should go. Kiper said before he doesn't think Geno should go in the first round. Then you said Kiper has Joeckel as a mid first round talent, but where does he have a prediction for Joeckel to go? He has him going #1 overall to the Chiefs. By the logic your applying to try and prove Geno's talent that logic would have Joeckel as best player available because Kiper has him mocked #1 to the Chiefs.

Door swings both ways. Hypocrisy is fun.

Mother****erJones · 04-04-2013, 05:55 PM

I totally understand the thinking of taking a top young LT when Albert is on the franchise tag and missed 4 games last year due to a back injury. I would still take the QB at 1. The reward is much higher than the LT though. Would you rather have Matt Ryan or Jake Long? Im not saying Geno is rated like Matt Ryan. Just using the QB v LT comparison to a few years ago.

OrtonsPiercedTaint · 04-04-2013, 05:56 PM

Try as you might. Making this draft interesting is going to take something nasty.

Mother****erJones · 04-04-2013, 05:58 PM

Not surprising by the Geno to Jax rumors. They want all the picks they can get and want a DL in this draft.

UberSparky · 04-04-2013, 06:03 PM

It's going to be Geno!!!!! ......or somebody else.

AlexSmithDynasty · 04-04-2013, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gravedigger

Door swings both ways. Hypocrisy is fun.

Please point to specific instances where I use unrelated measures to mislead and prove my point through deception.

04-04-2013, 12:53 PM
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $3686009	Kansas City Chiefs GM John Dorsey explains plan for No. 1 pick By Albert Breer Reporter, NFL.com and NFL Network Published: April 4, 2013 at 02:28 p.m. Updated: April 4, 2013 at 02:42 p.m. 0 Likes \| 0 Comments KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Relaxed and easygoing as he might be on this day, Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey had to know the question was coming, particularly since West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith's flight into town was already airborne. Mock draft central In his first year on the job, Dorsey has the draft's first pick. His move will set the table for everyone else, and his job is to get the most value out of that commodity. The best way to do that, of course, is to generate a market for the pick by manufacturing the impression that the Chiefs, in fact, like everyone. And as I floated that well-worn idea to Dorsey, his back straightened and he stopped me. "It's not creating a belief, it's the truth," Dorsey sharply responded. "We've said all along it's a process, and that process will not be finalized, that board will not be set, until four days before the draft. That's the way that whole process works itself out. There are different phases that you go through. I mean, right now, I just walked downstairs and we're in a different phase right now. We're going back as a group and assessing all the different positions." Still, there's very little question that the focus in Kansas City is squarely on the first pick -- the Chiefs' aren't scheduled to pick again until No. 63 overall -- and that focus is now narrowing. It wouldn't make much sense for Dorsey and the Chiefs to tip their hand now on exactly who they're targeting, since, again, that might limit the value of the pick itself. But internally, there has been a process of elimination and an identification of "finalists" with the draft three weeks away. "True contenders?" Dorsey quizzically uttered, before pausing and counting them in his head. "We've gotten it down to four." *** There's a shell game to this final phase of it, too. Yes, the Chiefs brought in Smith, but they already gave up two high picks, including the 34th overall selection in this draft, to acquire Alex Smith from the San Francisco 49ers. That trade, plus the split opinion league-wide on Smith's ability, cast plenty of doubt on the possibility of Kansas City taking the plunge on the West Virginia star -- doubt that Dorsey does his best to dispel. "There always can be a quarterback," he said. "We're gonna take the best player. I stand by that. And what I use as an example is that we were lucky enough to get Aaron Rodgers (in Green Bay). We were questioned about that, but we stood patiently for three years with him. We can stand patiently another three if we have to. At the end of the day, you want to do what's best for your organization, present and future. And if it happens to be the quarterback, we'll take the quarterback." On the topic of Smith, Dorsey added: "Physically, he was very impressive at the combine, and we watched his pro day three times. When he threw, it was very impressive." But if it's not the quarterback? That's where it gets interesting, because the guys who seem like better Chiefs fits aren't exactly being courted in the same manner Geno has been in K.C. With left tackle Branden Albert's future uncertain, Texas A&M's Luke Joeckel and Central Michigan's Eric Fisher both would seem to be firmly in the mix. Neither is slated to visit. The Chiefs also spent considerable time kicking the tires on Oregon's Dion Jordan and Florida's Sharrif Floyd after the NFL Scouting Combine. Yet, those two aren't scheduled either, at least at this point, to go to Kansas City and meet the brass. This could all be part of the club gaming the system, and other teams. Internally, obviously, there are answers to all these questions. Every day, Dorsey sits down with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid at 6:30 in the morning, again at lunch and a final time at night to talk things over. In the final 10 days, the GM says, Reid will become more involved in draft meetings, as the scouts trickle in with their field work complete. The hope is, by then, Dorsey has been sold on one of the four. "In a second, that could happen," Dorsey explained. "Sitting down and overwhelming somebody with their depth of knowledge of the offensive scheme and how quick they can put it up, and combine that with the on-the-field skills, and you go, 'Holy s---, he's got it.' It could be an interview at the combine, it could be his pro day at the school. There are different variables, and all of a sudden the light goes on and you're going, 'That's the guy!' It happens in a multitude of ways." Whether that moment of clarity comes or not, Dorsey continued, there needs to "come a point after you sit here and listen to all the scouts, you sit and listen to the coaches, you sit and talk with the medical staff, and then you sit and talk with the head coach, and then you say, 'This is the guy, and here's why.' And everyone says, 'OK.' Then you know that's the guy." *** Win a chance to announce a pick live at the 2013 NFL Draft. Enter now! And if your head isn't spinning quite enough yet, there's also a chance that the Chiefs a) aren't sold on any of the guys there or b) simply believe there's better value drafting eighth or 10th or 12th. In either case, they might test the trade waters. For now, Dorsey is willing to admit he's open to entertaining the idea. "Yeah," Dorsey said. "I'm open to what's best for this organization. I know I have the option to take the best player there. But if somebody calls me up and says, 'We're willing to move up, here's what we have to offer,' I see it, weigh it, listen to compensation and make a decision on what's best." The new GM spent the last 22 seasons working his way up through the Packers' personnel department. The average draft slot for Green Bay during that span? No. 20. Not only has Dorsey not worked for a team picking first before, but he's only been a part of the process with four top-10 picks in his entire scouting career: CB Terrell Buckley (No. 5 overall in 1992), Jamal Reynolds (10, 2001), A.J. Hawk (5, 2006) and B.J. Raji (9, 2009). That makes these waters a bit uncharted for him. He knows there are different dynamics with it. He mentioned Rodgers again as a model of a player who handled the kind of pressure the first pick will be under (though he wasn't the first pick, he was replacing a legend), and said, "I think any one of the four guys that we're targeting right now can handle that." He's also aware that, as a first-time GM, his actions on this pick will loom large when his prowess as a decision-maker is assessed. At least outwardly, though, he's trying to look at the top pick like any other selection. "A personnel guy always wants to get his pick right," Dorsey said. "We live that every year. We want to make sure the pick is right. This one happens to be the first pick in the draft. We're gonna try to make it right. You guys can put the pressure on us -- 'Holy crap, it's the No. 1 pick!' It's the No. 1 pick. We're gonna do the best we can." And as the process typically proves, getting the most out of a top pick often goes far beyond simply identifying a top player Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer 1m Nugget from my KC/Dorsey story -- Geno visited Chiefs. But Joeckel, Fisher, Floyd, Jordan aren't slated to. #Poker http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap
Posts: 23,752

04-04-2013, 05:46 PM	#96
Nightfyre MVP Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Helena, MT Casino cash: $3668849	If the Chiefs really like the long-term outlook on Geno, they should draft him. The fact of the matter is that a team will ultimately only go as far as their QB takes them. At some point in the playoffs, a QB will have to pick up his entire goddamn team and drag them across the goal-line. Alex Smith is not that guy.
Posts: 18,541

04-04-2013, 05:48 PM	#97
penbrook LEGEND! Join Date: Feb 2013 Casino cash: $10033840	B14ckmon wont like this quote.
Posts: 16,409

04-04-2013, 05:50 PM	#98
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $3686009	After free-agency shakeout, Geno a lock to be picked in top five April 3, 2013 10:40 PM ET 104 \| Comments Geno Smith will be a top-five draft pick. There isn't any doubt about it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go in the top three. Specifically, to Jacksonville second overall. There might finally be some real intrigue about which player goes first overall -- I would be stunned if the Chiefs don't take a left tackle assuming they can't trade the pick -- and it is one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory in that regard. But this idea that no quarterback gets drafted high, now, with so many quarterbacks changing teams and clubs trading for, or signing veterans, is misguided. More on NFL Columns Pat Kirwan Chiefs might have tabbed top choice, but still negotiating with others Pete Prisco Geno has potential but not overall game to be a top-10 pick 2013 NFL Draft Team spotlights Mock drafts Big Board Subscribe to newsletter Too many teams have too much legitimate interest in Smith, the standout from West Virginia. In reality, with the quarterback dust essentially settled now in terms of free agency and trades, Smith's stock will only rise the rest of this month. He has certain undeniable traits working in his favor, there remain a ton of teams that still are anything but settled on a quarterback on a long-term basis, and these top draft picks are just so damn cheap these days that it will continue to entice teams to try to trade into the top five. So anyone pretending that because Carson Palmer and Matt Flynn now have new teams that somehow Geno Smith has been devalued just don't get it. Anyone who thinks that the Cardinals, with the seventh overall pick, are now deeply committed to Palmer as their future at quarterback, and the Raiders, picking third, are now married to Flynn, and Kevin Kolb is the solution for the Bills, etc., etc., either haven't taken a real look at those contracts or simply do not understand the difference between taking a flier on a guy to be a bridge quarterback and finding a new face of the franchise. Let's keep the following in mind: Smith is, without a doubt, the top quarterback prospect in this draft. Period. No debate. Nothing he has done between his final college game and his pro day has changed that. He is the only sure-fire quarterback prospect in the top half of the first round. Even his harshest, most simplistic critic -- you know, the kind of guy who would lob the same shoddy jabs at Smith this week that he lobbed a few years back at Cam Newton -- would have to admit that unlike most of the past few years, there is no 1B to Smith's 1A. He is it at the top of the first round. (And, for the record, teams that have done their work on Smith have no concerns about character or work ethic. It's rather ludicrous in this situation.) That will do nothing but continue to push up his value. Once he's selected, it's a total crapshoot at this position, and when you consider that a good quarter of the league would still love to upgrade at quarterback if they could, that, too, works in Smith's favor. And we need only look back and see how quarterbacks with some glaring warts, like Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert, have been pushed up the draft board recently to see just how far teams are willing to reach if they need a passer. Then, consider how smart the Panthers (Newton), Seahawks (Russell Wilson), 49ers (Colin Kaepernick), Bengals (Andy Dalton), Redskins (Robert Griffin III) and others look for finding quarterbacks under this new CBA at a drastically reduced rate, freeing them to pump cap space and assets en masse into other positions. It's basically bust insurance for teams. So when you consider how cheap the player is, and how relatively cheap it can be to move up into the top 10 or top five to get there ... again, these are factors that will continue to pump Smith up. And, keep in mind how many teams in the top 10, and five, are willing to move down, and Smith remains a riser. Furthermore, this might be the weakest class in 20 years in terms of top-five talent. In fact, many scouts would tell you it's a three-player draft in that range -- the two left tackles (Luke Joeckel and Eric Fisher) and Smith. It's not loaded with once-in-a-generation talent or the next Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden or Adrian Peterson. So there will be demand to get one of these three players, and there are plenty of needy teams, and say what you want about the knocks on these three prospects, but there is even more uncertainty and bigger question marks about whoever is worthy of going fourth, or fifth or sixth. Sure, the Chiefs won't take Smith (not after overpaying the 49ers to acquire Alex Smith), and I know some are saying all of the attention the Jaguars have spent with him is a bit of a smokescreen. But then again, the Jags' new brass has no ties to Gabbert, they just watched him get two coaches fired in two years, more or less, and yet they opted to stay out of the hunt for Flynn (who has ties to their head coach), and Kolb, whom they loved coming out of college, and Smith (whose quarterback coach in San Fran, Greg Roman, is very good friends with Jags GM Dave Caldwell), and Palmer and others. That's very telling. (And don't give me any of this crap about backup Chad Henne -- he's just a guy). In fact, everything I have heard leads me to believe the real smoke screen is the idea that there has been a rallying behind Gabbert. To the contrary, his sense of entitlement, lack of production/development, attitude, and struggles in the face of the pass rush are just some of the reasons why he might never see the fourth year of his rookie contract in Jacksonville. So the Jags are very much in the hunt for their next quarterback, they won't do any better than Smith in this draft, they're likely to be the first quarterback-needy team with the chance to take him, and passing on him could prove to be a huge mistake. So I believe the Jags are spending all of this time, energy and resources on him for a reason beyond hoping to drum up interest in the second overall pick. How could a small-market team like this, desperate for an identity and someone for fans to gravitate to, not be interested in the best amateur quarterback in the country? How could they not look at a fellow small market team like the Panthers, with Newton, and not think what if? (And by no means am I saying that Smith will do anything close to what Newton has, but the continued success of athletic rookie quarterbacks is not going unnoticed.) And the Raiders are in the same situation. Flynn is a guy for now, and possibly for tomorrow, but any quarterback you can nab essentially for a fifth-round pick can't be a given. I'm not ruling them out. Do I think the Eagles take him? My gut says no, but they're not doing all of this due diligence on him as a favor, either. Michael Vick is a year-to-year proposition, Nick Foles is a developmental guy most likely, and if Smith looks like the best fit to be Chip Kelly's long-term guy, then it could happen. The Browns (6), Cardinals (7), Bills (8) and Jets (9) are both dealing with band-aid quarterbacks but don't have a long-term commitment to any passer. I'm sorry, people, that looks like a ton of demand and the most limited of supply -- one quarterback worthy of being taken in the top 10. Bluff or not, that's more than enough of a backdrop to make at least one team feel like it might have to trade up to guarantee it gets Smith. How silly will all of these teams look if they pass on a chance to take him? It's just not happening. So to posit that this kid someone now is a question mark to go in the top 15 is beyond ridiculous. No way that many teams are passing on him, and in the end, a few names might be called before his at Radio City Music Hall, but trust me, it will only be a few.
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04-04-2013, 05:56 PM	#102
OrtonsPiercedTaint MVP Join Date: Dec 2012 Casino cash: $10004980	Try as you might. Making this draft interesting is going to take something nasty.
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04-04-2013, 06:03 PM	#104
UberSparky Starter Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Valley "freaking" Falls Casino cash: $10004900	It's going to be Geno!!!!! ......or somebody else.
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