Grading the Royals at the Halfway Mark

[gblowfish]

I was thinking about this after last night's game. The Royals are about where I figured they would be, under .500 but slightly improved from last year. Here's my mid term grades on the players and manager, feel free to flame away:

Position Players:

Hosmer C-: Horrible opening stretch, didn't start to hit at all until Brett got ahold of him. Defense is a little above average, but lack of power is a major problem. Still tends to have a big looping swing and strikes out way too much.

Johnson D+: Only hits against Tampa Bay. Too bad we only play them one more time this year. Good baserunner, adequate defensively. OK as a utility guy, too weak on offense to be a legit starter.

Escobar C-: Offense has regressed this year. Very streaky hitter. Will hit in clutch sometimes, but has trouble moving runners when in the #2 spot. Has had defensive lapses, makes a hard play then boots an easy one. May be he needs more days off, grind may be getting to him.

Moose F: Except for Francoeur, biggest liability in the lineup in first half. Mind numbing how bad this guy has been on offense. King of stranding runners. Sultan of swish, Prince of the Pop Up. Once we start the fire sale, send his ass to Omaha and let him think about it. Needs to come to camp in better condition. He looks doughy, and it's hurt his defense this year. Not getting to balls that he used to reach, slow on the bases, when he manages to get on. All in all a horrific season from a guy GMDM was counting on.

Gordon: A-: Great start, has tailed off over the last month. I would say Alex is the best defensive left fielder in baseball. He is really that good. Offensively, he has not been the kind of all star go to guy that he should be. He has his moments, like the grand slam in Detroit, and he has his moments, like striking out on a slider in the dirt with the tying runs on in the eighth and nobody out. He is one of the few starters we have that you can say is a legitimate big time major league player, and he's still growing and maturing. All in all, he's had a good first half.

Cain C: He has stayed healthy. That's good. He strikes out a lot. A really lot. That's bad. He is a very streaky hitter. He can go weeks doing nothing, then he can tear the cover off the ball for a couple days. Outfield defense has been pretty good, except for the ball he booted in the last Oakland series that cost us the game. If he can walk more, cut down on the strikeouts, he'll be a good reliable center fielder.

Lough B: Should have broke camp as our starting RF if it wasn't for GMDM's boner for Frenchy. Very good defensive player, good contact guy, doesn't strike out a lot. Hustles. Needs work on his base running skills. For a late call up, he has played very well and improved our outfield.

Dyson B-: Before he got hurt, he was leading the team in slugging. Great base runner, when he can get on. Bit of a defensive liability, less than average arm and takes weird routes to the ball. Has trouble in pressure situations moving runners or making contact. Stood and looked at strike three Friday night to end the Cleveland game. Ankle injury slowed his progress. Good fourth outfielder, and a premier pinch runner for Fat Boy.

Perez A-: Salvy would get an "A" as our first All-Star Catcher in ions except for a couple of things. One, he has not hit for as much power as we should get from a guy his size. Second, he lollygagged when grandma kicked off. Thought he took way too much time away, and while he was gone, the team floundered. He calls a great game, has one of the best throwing arms in baseball, and is a great quarterback for the pitching staff. You can tell the pitchers love his blocking ability behind the plate. Dude should be an all star for years to come if he can stay healthy. Ned may need to give him some days off during the dog days. Very well deserved All Star pick.

Butler B-: A down year compared to last year in power and average. Butler needs to get in better condition. He looks out of shape, worse than Moose. Slower than he should be, he's bordering on Harmon Killibrew at age 40 slow. Walks a lot, but has been pressing here over the past couple weeks and has had some killing oh fer days. He also needs to cut down on the K's, and work in the off season to drop about 15 lbs and muscle up. He could be a young Jim Thome if he really worked at it.

Reserves:

Tejada B: Has played very well for a 39 year old. Has given the Royals everything they expected and then some. Flexible, can play second and third, and never looks confused at the plate. Wish he was ten years younger.

Getz D-: Played pretty well in April, actually hit a home run in Atlanta, then did his typical swirl down the toilet bowl, and finished by not executing bunts before being sent down for Gio. We should probably trade him out of the organization, because he's never going to get any better. Move on to the next contestant.

Gio D+: I want to like this guy, I really do. He hustles, reminds me of a young Chuck Knoblach. But every time he rips in up in Omaha, we call him up, and he just shits the bed. He killed it his first day up in Minnesota, and has gone oh for every game since. When you get your chance you have to make something out of it (see David Lough). If he doesn't come around in the second half, I say get him out of the organization and look elsewhere.

Kottaras C-: The good stuff: He walks a lot and will hit you a homer every once in awhile. Very calm at the plate, hard to rattle. Bad Stuff: Can't hit over .200, weaker defense than Salvy -that would be true for whoever Salvy's back up was- and tends to allow pass balls or wild pitches at very inopportune times. Still, he's better than Bryan Pena. If he could just add about 40 points to his average….

Frenchy F: Seven Million Dollars down the dumper. Guy has a great smile, should be popular with the fellahs in San Francisco.

Starting Pitching:

Shields B+: Guy has been everything advertised. Not his fault we don't score any runs for him. Sometimes starts slow and gets behind early, but he is a battler. Reminds me of Dennis Leonard in his heyday. Dude hates to lose, wish we could transfuse his character into the rest of the ball club.

Santana B: Innings eater, still gets bit by the long ball. Over the past couple weeks seems to have lost his focus, maybe because of all the trade talk. Has been great at times, certainly better than anybody else behind him in this list of starters. Wouldn't be surprised to see him traded to the National League by the deadline.

Guthrie B: Has been a reliable decent starter, last night grooved a meatball for a cheap grand salami, but usually does a good job pitching out of trouble. Has been more good than bad, and with better offense, could have three or four more wins. He's our only opening season rotation starter with a winning record.

Davis C: Started out pretty well, but this guy is a long reliever posing as a starter. He's a lot like Chen or Mendoza, not consistent enough to be a reliable starter, but pitches good enough to hang around on the roster, as his ERA is now pushing six. Hopefully his spot in the rotation will be taken by Duffy soon.

Mendoza C-: I think he's tired. He pitched in the World Competition before spring training, so he hasn't had a long rest for awhile. When he's on, he's very good. When he's off he gets his ass handed to him in a hurry. A month rest in the bullpen might be exactly what the doc ordered.

Chen C: Goes to show you if you're left handed, you can hang around in the bigs for a long time. Pitched well against Cleveland on Friday, but was lucky he didn't get pounded. You can't throw letter high middle in 85 mph fastballs for long and survive in the bigs. He's getting near the end of his run, we should probably trade him before the deadline. Can't see him in next years plans.

Relief:

Crow C: This guy is under achieving for where he was picked. We're paying him a shitload of money for 1/3rd of an inning in the seventh. Too unpredictable, has the stuff to win, but can't seem to harness his control.

Hoch C-: Same thing as Crow, way under achieving for where he was picked. This guy soils himself at the first sign of pressure. Pitches great if you're ahead or behind by four runs. But bring him in when you need a stop or a hold, and you're ****ed. I'd try to trade him by the deadline, he's never going to be anything but what he is now, which is a big chuck of chicken shit and dead payroll.

Collins C-: Good start, but the midget has been getting pounded lately. Same drill as last year. Sometimes he looks great, sometimes he can't get anybody out. Tends to overthrow and walk guys at critical junctures. Needs to focus and command his stuff. He's got great attitude for a reliever, he just can't back up the attitude often enough to be reliable.

Gutierrez D+: When he comes in, Ned has raised the white flag. Looks like CC Sebathia's little brother, except he can be hit with ease. He's just a warm body holding down a spot.

Coleman C+: Should have broke camp, but Herrera took his spot. Has pitched well when given the opportunity, but last year got rocked in the second half. We'll see how he does in August.

Herrera D: Guy has the stuff to be a big time closer. Can throw the ball through a brick wall. But when a major league hitter times his fastball, it tends to leave the park. Often. He's still young, needs to harness his control and pitch smarter. He'll be OK, just needs more time to mature.

Joseph and Smith Incomplete: Not enough time up yet to evaluate fairly.

Holland A: Should have made the All Star Team. Had a couple of rocky outings in April, but has been lights out since. Everything you could ask for in a closer. Number of K's is outstanding, one of the best hard sliders in the American League. Give this guy a raise.

Manager:

Ned C-: Well, Ned has personally cost us about four or five games this year with stupid managing, but all managers have a few clunkers. He has kept us within the tail lights of Detroit up till now, but we'll probably fade to double digits after the break. Ned is pretty much Buddy Bell. He's not going to ever be a top drawer manager. DMGM will probably give him one more year, because DMGM has one more year on his contract. They'll either both survive together or jump off the cliff together, depending on what happens in the second half.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Ned Yost makes me happier than a nun in a cucumber field.

[Deberg_1990]

37-47 at the break last year.
43-48 as of today.


They didn't win their 43rd game last year until August 1st.

Progress I reckon....
Posted via Mobile Device

[gblowfish]

The way we've been hitting lately, we may not win our 44th until August 1st.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Jeremy Guthrie has been the second worst starting pitcher in baseball this year.

[gblowfish]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Jeremy Guthrie has been the second worst starting pitcher in baseball this year.

OK, and your argument for that is.....

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

OK, and your argument for that is.....

5.70 xFIP -0.5 WAR

Luck and run support doesn't equal good.

[DeezNutz]

Overall, really nice OP and great idea for a thread.

Guthrie and Davis deserve some rethinking, in my view. The former gives up the gopher ball far, far, far too often, and Royals fans are going to hate his contract when the smoke clears. Regarding the latter, he's on an historically bad pace, and thus you misspelled his name: Davies.

[Demonpenz]

Thank you for the write up. Looks like you are up on people more than I am.
Hosmer C
Moose F
Billy C
Dyson D
Cain D
Lough B
Gordon B+
Salvy B
Shields B
Santana B
Guthrie B
Davis F
Herarra F
Elliot Johnson D
Gio D
Escobar D
Kotterous C
Ned Yost D
Dayton Moore D
Slugger D
Toby Cook C
Denny Matthews B
Rex Hudler C
Steve Phisoic C
Ryan Leveber A
Jeff Blauser A

[gblowfish]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

5.70 xFIP -0.5 WAR

Luck and run support doesn't equal good.

I'm not geeked into a lot of the new metric measurements. What is an xFIP?

[gblowfish]

Demonpenz: You have to give Slugrrr an "A" for his love of lap dances. And Toby Cook (Royals PR) gets an F for two things: One, letting Fred Bird, the Cardinals mascot, run around OUR STADIUM during the Cardinals series. and two, ESPECIALLY for "Salute The A's" weekend. He should be shot for that promotion alone.

[Demonpenz]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Demonpenz: You have to give Slugrrr an "A" for his love of lap dances....

I didn't see a hole cut in his crotch so he could get some goop on him.

[gblowfish]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Overall, really nice OP and great idea for a thread.

Guthrie and Davis deserve some rethinking, in my view. The former gives up the gopher ball far, far, far too often, and Royals fans are going to hate his contract when the smoke clears. Regarding the latter, he's on an historically bad pace, and thus you misspelled his name: Davies.

Calling him "Wade Davies" is the finest in Royals Gallows Humor.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

I'm not geeked into a lot of the new metric measurements. What is an xFIP?

Fielding Independent Pitching is a measurement of what a pitcher would do if you removed luck and defense from the equation, giving him league average luck on balls in play. It's an attempt to normalize for the pitchers who have good defense behind them, and who are riding good/bad streaks of luck in order to truly evaluate their worth.

xFIP adds in the league average HR/FB ratio to better normalize the measurement.

It works extremely well. If a pitcher has an xFIP higher than their ERA they are getting lucky. Lower and they are unlucky.


Further explanation:

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.


A walk is not as harmful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. FIP accounts for these kinds of differences, presenting the results on the same scale as ERA. It has been shown to be more effective than ERA in terms of predicting future performance and has become a mainstay in sabermetric analysis.

[Demonpenz]

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Demonpenz: You have to give Slugrrr an "A" for his love of lap dances. And Toby Cook (Royals PR) gets an F for two things: One, letting Fred Bird, the Cardinals mascot, run around OUR STADIUM during the Cardinals series. and two, ESPECIALLY for "Salute The A's" weekend. He should be shot for that promotion alone.

I loved the A's tribute.