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Old 05-21-2018, 07:18 PM  
AMDChief AMDChief is offline
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Tax Cut Scam: Goldman Sachs: The fiscal outlook for the US 'is not good'

Goldman Sachs: The fiscal outlook for the US 'is not good'


  • Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, sees the deficit ballooning to $2.05 trillion (7 percent of GDP) by 2028.
  • "Lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn in light of the already substantial budget deficit," the economist said.
  • The Congressional Budget Office projects that debt could equal GDP within a decade, a level not seen since World War II.

The fiscal outlook for the United States "is not good," according to Goldman Sachs, and could pose a threat to the country's economic security during the next recession.

According to forecasts from the bank's chief economist, the federal deficit will increase from $825 billion (or 4.1 percent of gross domestic product) to $1.25 trillion (5.5 percent of GDP) by 2021. And by 2028, the bank expects the number to balloon to $2.05 trillion (7 percent of GDP).

"An expanding deficit and debt level is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates, expanding the deficit further," Jan Hatzius — Goldman's chief economist — wrote Sunday. "While we do not believe that the U.S. faces a risk to its ability to borrow or repay, the rising debt level could nevertheless have three consequences long before debt sustainability becomes a major obstacle."

Legislators passed a package of corporate and individual tax cuts in December, a two-year budget deal in February and a massive spending bill in March that boosted government expenditures on both domestic and military programs.

In light of the big spending and easier tax burden, the Congressional Budget Office – Capitol Hill's nonpartisan financial scorekeeper – in April projected that debt could equal GDP within a decade if Congress extends the tax cuts, a level not seen since World War II.



Economic growth should jump above 3 percent in 2018 thanks to the stimuli, the CBO said, but the acceleration will likely prove brief, and debt held by the public will soar to $28.7 trillion by the end of fiscal 2028.

That could create a precarious situation for Congress if the economy faces an economic downturn in the near term, Hatzius wrote, hampering legislators' ability provide additional fiscal stimulus.

"Lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn in light of the already substantial budget deficit," the economist said. "While we would expect some additional loosening of fiscal policy during the next downturn, there is a good chance in our view that it would be less aggressive than it was in the last few recessions."

But even if the debt and deficit levels don't prevent lawmakers from approving countercyclical fiscal stimulus during the next recession, a political desire to stabilize the debt level would likely arrest growth during the next recovery, the Goldman team explained.

"The current fiscal expansion ... must at some point give way not just to a neutral stance, which we expect by 2020, but to a tightening of fiscal policy that could restrict growth," Hatzius wrote.

Finally, the economist explained that regardless of how much longer the current expansion persists, increasing deficits and debts naturally put upward pressure on interest rates, expanding the deficit further.

According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, a 1 percentage point increase in the budget deficit raises the 10-year Treasury yield by roughly 20 basis points when the economy is at or beyond full employment, as it appears to be currently.

"Surprises are clearly possible in both directions, but we believe the risks are tilted in the direction of larger deficits than projected," Hatzius concluded. "While we expect Congress will eventually address the widening budget gap, it also seems quite likely to take longer than most market participants might expect."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/gold...-not-good.html
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:19 PM   #2
patteeu patteeu is offline
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We’d better get to work on those entitlements.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:20 PM   #3
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Im pretty confident AMD Idiot is spamming at this point. Time for a break.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:31 PM   #4
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Im pretty confident AMD Idiot is spamming at this point. Time for a break.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:31 PM   #5
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"Lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn in light of the already substantial budget deficit," the economist said.
This is a good thing as the historical result of the government trying fiscal stimulus is pretty much shit and prolonged down turns.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:35 PM   #6
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But then there is this: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...eviews-on-n-k/

Nearly 2 in 3 Americans think the nation's economy is in good shape, and most of them believe President's Trump's policies are at least somewhat responsible for that.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:43 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by digger View Post
But then there is this: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...eviews-on-n-k/

Nearly 2 in 3 Americans think the nation's economy is in good shape, and most of them believe President's Trump's policies are at least somewhat responsible for that.
Glad you posted that poll!

Quote:
Still, overall, a majority of Americans feel the president is looking out a lot for the wealthy and big business, and his own business interests -- more so than they feel he is looking out for them.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:45 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by AMDChief View Post
Goldman Sachs: The fiscal outlook for the US 'is not good'


  • Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, sees the deficit ballooning to $2.05 trillion (7 percent of GDP) by 2028.
  • "Lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn in light of the already substantial budget deficit," the economist said.
  • The Congressional Budget Office projects that debt could equal GDP within a decade, a level not seen since World War II.

The fiscal outlook for the United States "is not good," according to Goldman Sachs, and could pose a threat to the country's economic security during the next recession.

According to forecasts from the bank's chief economist, the federal deficit will increase from $825 billion (or 4.1 percent of gross domestic product) to $1.25 trillion (5.5 percent of GDP) by 2021. And by 2028, the bank expects the number to balloon to $2.05 trillion (7 percent of GDP).

"An expanding deficit and debt level is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates, expanding the deficit further," Jan Hatzius — Goldman's chief economist — wrote Sunday. "While we do not believe that the U.S. faces a risk to its ability to borrow or repay, the rising debt level could nevertheless have three consequences long before debt sustainability becomes a major obstacle."

Legislators passed a package of corporate and individual tax cuts in December, a two-year budget deal in February and a massive spending bill in March that boosted government expenditures on both domestic and military programs.

In light of the big spending and easier tax burden, the Congressional Budget Office – Capitol Hill's nonpartisan financial scorekeeper – in April projected that debt could equal GDP within a decade if Congress extends the tax cuts, a level not seen since World War II.



Economic growth should jump above 3 percent in 2018 thanks to the stimuli, the CBO said, but the acceleration will likely prove brief, and debt held by the public will soar to $28.7 trillion by the end of fiscal 2028.

That could create a precarious situation for Congress if the economy faces an economic downturn in the near term, Hatzius wrote, hampering legislators' ability provide additional fiscal stimulus.

"Lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn in light of the already substantial budget deficit," the economist said. "While we would expect some additional loosening of fiscal policy during the next downturn, there is a good chance in our view that it would be less aggressive than it was in the last few recessions."

But even if the debt and deficit levels don't prevent lawmakers from approving countercyclical fiscal stimulus during the next recession, a political desire to stabilize the debt level would likely arrest growth during the next recovery, the Goldman team explained.

"The current fiscal expansion ... must at some point give way not just to a neutral stance, which we expect by 2020, but to a tightening of fiscal policy that could restrict growth," Hatzius wrote.

Finally, the economist explained that regardless of how much longer the current expansion persists, increasing deficits and debts naturally put upward pressure on interest rates, expanding the deficit further.

According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, a 1 percentage point increase in the budget deficit raises the 10-year Treasury yield by roughly 20 basis points when the economy is at or beyond full employment, as it appears to be currently.

"Surprises are clearly possible in both directions, but we believe the risks are tilted in the direction of larger deficits than projected," Hatzius concluded. "While we expect Congress will eventually address the widening budget gap, it also seems quite likely to take longer than most market participants might expect."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/21/gold...-not-good.html
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:47 PM   #9
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Goldman-Sachs as a harbinger of doom. You just can't make this shut up.

HURRY! POST A GIF!!!
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:48 PM   #10
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Im pretty confident AMD Idiot is spamming at this point. Time for a break.
When has that not been the case? He is the epitome of desperation.
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All kinds of people vote. Not enough of those people think highly enough of Trump to make him President but all kinds of people vote.
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:50 PM   #11
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:51 PM   #12
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Goldman-Sachs as a harbinger of doom. You just can't make this shut up.

HURRY! POST A GIF!!!
You should get off your couch you - were fired some time ago....

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Old 05-21-2018, 07:51 PM   #13
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You just responded to a serious economic study by Goldman Sachs with an idiotic meme about Hillary "But her emails" Clinton.

Why am I not surprised?
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:52 PM   #14
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You should get off your couch you - were fired some time ago....

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Old 05-21-2018, 07:54 PM   #15
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We’d better get to work on those entitlements.
Agree. Looks like it started with the failed farm bill. Glad that didn't get out of the house. Tired of these rural leeches.

Next they should look at the private jet entitlements.
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