Math does not respect the Chiefs

[cdcox]

Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com

[Tombstone RJ]

Originally Posted by TEX

Absolutely agree with this. Anyone who thinks negatively about this season has issues...
But Obama did get elected twice so there are some dumb ****s out there...

yes, I'd say kc has had a great season if you all make it to the post season...

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

I think they can beat anyone at home.

I think there are very few they can beat on the road.

Unless the offense suddenly finds a groove and begins scoring 23+ per game, they'll need home field to advance in the playoffs, IMO.

THIS !!

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by cdcox

If the Ravens were to only lose 2 more games this year they would be 8-8 and have at best a 20% chance of making the playoffs.

They still have to play Detroit and the Bengals on the road and the Steelers, Jets, and Patriots at home.

They have like a 3% chance of making it.

This is why math is wrong. You have to play the games.

[007]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

You refer in that thread to a "league-wide curse" which it is not.

Since the advent of free agency, ~90% of NFC teams that finish 13-3 make it to the Super Bowl. ~80% of AFC teams that finish 13-3 lose in the 1st round of the playoffs, at home.

That was my point. It isn't a curse.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

This is why math is wrong.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Why? Giving them a 1% chance in October was crazy. Ravens do it every year go on a hot run near the end of season.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

This is why math is wrong. You have to play the games.

I never said that there was no need to play the games.

Their odds are up to 18%.

But they still have games against Detroit (away), New England (home), and Cincinnati (away), all of which are tougher opponents than the Steelers, against whom they eked out a 2 point victory.

Definitely need to play the games but the Raven's haven't exactly clinched a playoff spot yet.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Originally Posted by cdcox

I never said that there was no need to play the games.

Their odds are up to 18%.

But they still have games against Detroit (away), New England (home), and Cincinnati (away), all of which are tougher opponents than the Steelers, against whom they eked out a 2 point victory.

Definitely need to play the games but the Raven's haven't exactly clinched a playoff spot yet.

It's cool I got a feeling week 17 game Balt @ Cin is gonna be for North.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Why? Giving them a 1% chance in October was crazy. Ravens do it every year go on a hot run near the end of season.

In 2012, they never dropped below a 62% chance of making the playoffs.

In 2011, they were never below a 70% chance.

In 2010, they started off around 40% and it steadily increased throughout the season.

This team isn't playing as well as any of those teams. They might make it, but to do so they probably need to beat the Vikings and 2 out of three out of Detroit, New England, and Cincinnati. It's not a done deal, especially given the way they've been playing.