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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:02 PM   #7051
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I'd rather go for a total rebuild than tread water for a few years with nothing to show for it. We couldn't even make a wild card with Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Esky, Vargy, etc. on the roster. What's the point in signing someone like Hosmer when the other pieces are not in place and the minors have nobody ready to contribute? Beyond trying to remain competitive to look better for the new tv contract, the long term outlook would look better with a plethora of picks in the draft this year. Of course, I don't trust Dayton Moore to make the right picks.
That last sentence...it's as if you fell asleep for the last 10 years.

Why are you set on re-building? Re-building carries no guarantees either. We re-build the bullpen, sign Hosmer and get younger and more athletic everywhere else and this team can be better than last year's team. Say all you want about the lack of prospects, but both Merrifield and Bonifacio were on nobody's top 100 prospect list. If Mondi emerges in the next 2-3 years offensively, he and Cuthbert can easily replace Moose/Escobar's output. Keep key players(Perez, Hoz, Duffy)...let role players and the occasional surprise come out of the minors and go to free agency to fill in the gaps.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:13 AM   #7052
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The minors is full of guys that are on the cusp of being mlb ready.
Dozier, Almonte, Staumont, Mondesi, O'Hearn, Selman and Lovelady could all contribute in 2018.
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Old 10-12-2017, 07:08 AM   #7053
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The minors is full of guys that are on the cusp of being mlb ready.
Dozier, Almonte, Staumont, Mondesi, O'Hearn, Selman and Lovelady could all contribute in 2018.
To me there's a clear difference between being MLB ready and being a star. Does anyone really think we'll have the horses over the next 3 years to compete with Cleveland? They are better than us in just about every position.
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Old 10-12-2017, 07:16 AM   #7054
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To me there's a clear difference between being MLB ready and being a star. Does anyone really think we'll have the horses over the next 3 years to compete with Cleveland? They are better than us in just about every position.
Do you know how many people thought the same about the Mets? You never know.

We aren't set up too bad. Mondesi has star potential. Whit was a top 5 2nd baseman last year. Salvy is one the best in the game at his position. Sign Hoz and you have 4 top shelf pieces to work with.
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Old 10-12-2017, 07:51 AM   #7055
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We have some nice pieces, but also huge holes. Our outfield offensive production looks awful. But pitching is still our big weakness imo. Duffy is a solid #3, Junis has some upside, Vargy is a 4/5 to me at this point and then nothing. Hammel averages 5 1/2 innings per start with a 5.3 ERA and 1.43 whip. Then Kennedy who averages 5 innings per start with a 5.4 ERA.

Our starters have to go deeper into games to keep our above average pen from flaming out in August again.

Obviously the hope is that Mondesi gives us better defense and some moar run production at SS. Whit doesn’t drop off, Boni takes a step forward and Soler provides a bunch of help.
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Old 10-12-2017, 07:56 AM   #7056
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To me there's a clear difference between being MLB ready and being a star. Does anyone really think we'll have the horses over the next 3 years to compete with Cleveland? They are better than us in just about every position.
Last night will be a hangover for the Indians. Starting pitching - their bread and butter - is fickle from year to year. While their bullpen is a strength, it's never been tested against over-use via a starting pitching staff that consistently flames out after the 5th or 6th innings. We'll see.
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:14 AM   #7057
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Look at photos of Kauffman Stadium field, which is undergoing ‘massive overhaul’
This kind of stuff is really cool.




I think it'd actually be kind of fun to play a ballgame on the field as it exists now. The right fielder might tell me to GFY, though...
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:23 AM   #7058
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I want Moose to stick around more than Hos.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:25 AM   #7059
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While the minor league system of the Royals does not rank highly, it does feature a few players who are no longer prospects but have high upside.

Mondesi, if he still qualified as a prospect, would be top 20 and possibly top 10 on the back of his season at Omaha. He finally untapped his tools at the plate and really performed at a high level.

Solar was also excellent at Omaha. Neither qualify as a prospect any longer, but in them you have a potential superstar SS and a potential superstar power hitter. No one in baseball would be surprised by either outcome.

If either of them can live up to that potential over the next few years, that changes the outlook of the team tremendously.

Mondesi offers the ability to hit for good average, with 20+ HR power, 30 steals, and excellent defense at SS. The team comments about him being a potential 3 hitter are sensible.

As for 2018 and beyond, I can see a path forward to improvement and contention and understand why the Royals aren't willing to blow it up.

If they keep Hosmer, you're looking for complementary pieces to the offense, hoping Gordon's September was not a mirage, and that one of those aforementioned young players does hit his potential at the plate.

There are reasons to think a bounce back is possible from the rotation, and if you reinforce the bullpen a bit, that it returns to being a weapon.

It all hinges on Hosmer, though.


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Old 10-12-2017, 11:45 AM   #7060
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I want Moose to stick around more than Hos.
I would rather sign the younger, healthy more productive player who plays a position that is easier on the body when you age.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:47 AM   #7061
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I want Moose to stick around more than Hos.
Hos offers you a lot more than Moose. Hos was 2nd in the AL in Hits right behind MVP Altuve. He hits for average and power. Can go to any part of the field. One of the best defensive first baseman. Never misses a pick. And has speed for a first baseman. You sign Hos you can start building his statue immediately
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:50 AM   #7062
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I'm STILL trying to figure out what Moore saw in Kennedy that warranted 1. That contract, and 2. the draft pick.
It wasn't a bad move for Kennedy. It's not Dayton Moore's fault the MLB juiced the ball. He would have been a perfect pitcher in the pre 2015 environment.
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:04 PM   #7063
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Screwing with the baseballs changes so much. I wonder if they will go back to the real deals next year or stick with these super balls.
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:05 PM   #7064
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
While the minor league system of the Royals does not rank highly, it does feature a few players who are no longer prospects but have high upside.

Mondesi, if he still qualified as a prospect, would be top 20 and possibly top 10 on the back of his season at Omaha. He finally untapped his tools at the plate and really performed at a high level.

Solar was also excellent at Omaha. Neither qualify as a prospect any longer, but in them you have a potential superstar SS and a potential superstar power hitter. No one in baseball would be surprised by either outcome.

If either of them can live up to that potential over the next few years, that changes the outlook of the team tremendously.

Mondesi offers the ability to hit for good average, with 20+ HR power, 30 steals, and excellent defense at SS. The team comments about him being a potential 3 hitter are sensible.

As for 2018 and beyond, I can see a path forward to improvement and contention and understand why the Royals aren't willing to blow it up.

If they keep Hosmer, you're looking for complementary pieces to the offense, hoping Gordon's September was not a mirage, and that one of those aforementioned young players does hit his potential at the plate.

There are reasons to think a bounce back is possible from the rotation, and if you reinforce the bullpen a bit, that it returns to being a weapon.

It all hinges on Hosmer, though.


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How about Soler and Mondesi both just become stars.
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:06 PM   #7065
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Kennedy's big problem this year, other than the injury, was he gave up too many walks. His home run ratio was about the same as normal if I recall. Just gave up more walks, then as a fly ball pitcher equals bad news.
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