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Old 02-19-2013, 07:53 AM  
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Peter King: You have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl.../?sct=uk_wr_a1





You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders.

That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile?

The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round."

Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks.


But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position.

Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine.

Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated.

Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months.

Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round.

Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel.

No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o.

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player.

3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round?



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Old 02-20-2013, 01:34 PM   #301
MagicHef MagicHef is offline
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Here are some first round draft numbers:

Over the past 20 years, 45 QBs have been drafted in the first round. 29 of them (64%) had a better better win percentage during their time with the team that drafted them than that team had during the 3 years prior to their draft. That is to say, 64% of them improved their teams. That does not include Eli or Rivers, neither of whom played at all for the team that drafted them.

Here are the percentage of first rounders by position that improved their teams:

QB: 64% (Improved their team by an average of 0.58 wins/season)
RB: 57% (0.48)
DT: 55% (0.12)
WR: 54% (0.27)
S: 54% (0.42)
DE: 51% (-0.08)
OT: 51% (0.14)
LB 51% (0.54)
OG 45% (-0.05)
TE 45% (-0.07)
CB 45% (-0.31)
OC 27% (-0.77)
K 0% (-0.36)

So. Draft a QB.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:35 PM   #302
O.city O.city is offline
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
You have an internal logic fail here.

If Rodgers isn't arguable, but there was a huge faction of the draft folks that thought Smith was better than Rodgers coming out of college, then isn't Smith also not arguable?

The same logic can be applied to Rivers/Eli.

Brees fell to the 2nd and wasn't Brees for 3 years.

It's an odd question, really. BUt I think a fair statement is that many of those names could have been considered better than Geno coming out of college, but the only truly 'inarguable' example is Peyton Manning. Otherwise you have to put yourself in the position of claiming that Alex Smith was also better than Geno coming out. You wanna hitch yourself to that wagon?
Then I accomplished somewhat what I hoped to with that.

It's pretty much impossible to look at something like that with no hindsight glasses on, because we know the end game. We can take the scouting report they had as a prospect, hold it up to what they are now, and see what matches up.

IMO, you can't effectively analyze and/or compare prospects accross time, because you can't take that element out of it. Which is why the whole Luck/RGIII stuff is somewhat overblown, just as the "he's no DT etc."
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:36 PM   #303
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
Coming out of college?

He's superior as a prospect to Brees, period. Brees was coming out of the spread before the spread was en vogue, plus Brees is a midget.

I think it's arguable whether or not he's a better prospect that Big Ben. Ben had some serious question marks coming out and he too came from a spread offense.

Out of the guys on that list, the ones that were DEFINITIVELY better prospects than Geno, without the benefit of hindsight, are:

McNabb
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning

And that's about it.
He didn't say "Better Prospects". He said "Better QB's".

HUGE difference.

Tom Brady won put a team on his shoulders and won a Super Bowl in Year Two. Kaepernick led his team to a Super Bowl in Year Two. Collins led the Panthers to the NFC Championship in Year Two. Etc. and so on.

Just because scouts missed on guys doesn't mean that the players weren't ready to lead a team.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:37 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
All but Hasselbeck, Grossman and Warner.

If Smith takes his team to a championship game or Super Bowl by the end of his second season, the debate could be re-opened, depending on how that team was led.

But at this point in time, before the Combines, before the Draft, before training camp, etc. it's just damn silly to make these comparisons.
I don't know about that, but like I said, it's really impossible to do.


We know for a fact what those others DID as a pro. We have no idea what Smith will become.

It's just not a real good road to head down, IMO.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:37 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
So. Draft a QB.
Over-drafting a QB in the first round doesn't make him worthy of being a first round QB.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:38 PM   #306
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
All but Hasselbeck, Grossman and Warner.

If Smith takes his team to a championship game or Super Bowl by the end of his second season, the debate could be re-opened, depending on how that team was led.

But at this point in time, before the Combines, before the Draft, before training camp, etc. it's just damn silly to make these comparisons.
You're right Dane, we should probably just shut the board down for maintenance until after the draft.

Forgive me for listing the quarterbacks that have been to the recent superbowls and asking "what skills do these guys have that Geno doesn't and which were better PROSPECTS coming out of college.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:39 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Over-drafting a QB in the first round doesn't make him worthy of being a first round QB.
Actually, from what I've read and seen at this point, I think Smith and Barkley are both first round prospects. Where in the first round is what the next month or two will determine.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:41 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
You're right Dane, we should probably just shut the board down for maintenance until after the draft.

Forgive me for listing the quarterbacks that have been to the recent superbowls and asking "what skills do these guys have that Geno doesn't and which were better PROSPECTS coming out of college.
What's ****ing RIDICULOUS is that you're asking a question that CANNOT BE ANSWERED.

YOU have no idea how Eugene Smith will play in the NFL. None. Not ONE iota. Because you WANT him to be drafted by the Chiefs and WANT him to play well, you're PROJECTING when in reality, you have absolutely no idea where he'll land or how he will perform.

If you're going to ask that question of Smith, why not ask it of Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, Dysert and Manuel? And even if you did, it would be an empty response made up of pure CONJECTURE, not fact.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:43 PM   #309
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Actually, from what I've read and seen at this point, I think Smith and Barkley are both first round prospects. Where in the first round is what the next month or two will determine.
Reading ten million mock drafts provides absolutely no clarity and it's just ridiculous to believe that anyone has any idea of where these players will land, especially before the Combines and personal visits begin.

It's conjecture: Guys sit around and try to match players with needs. That's it. And they all read each other's mock drafts and influence each because they want to be seen as "right" at the end of the day.

It's a pointless exercise, especially this early in the process.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:44 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
He didn't say "Better Prospects". He said "Better QB's".

HUGE difference.

Tom Brady won put a team on his shoulders and won a Super Bowl in Year Two. Kaepernick led his team to a Super Bowl in Year Two. Collins led the Panthers to the NFC Championship in Year Two. Etc. and so on.

Just because scouts missed on guys doesn't mean that the players weren't ready to lead a team.
I didn't say that at all.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:47 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
What's ****ing RIDICULOUS is that you're asking a question that CANNOT BE ANSWERED.

YOU have no idea how Eugene Smith will play in the NFL. None. Not ONE iota. Because you WANT him to be drafted by the Chiefs and WANT him to play well, you're PROJECTING when in reality, you have absolutely no idea where he'll land or how he will perform.

If you're going to ask that question of Smith, why not ask it of Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, Dysert and Manuel? And even if you did, it would be an empty response made up of pure CONJECTURE, not fact.
You're being obtuse and not paying attention.

I CLEARLY asked for everyone to look at the players that made it to the superbowl and then trying to look back at them WHEN THEY WERE COMING OUT OF COLLEGE and seeing how Geno stacks up to them at that point.

If you don't think that can be looked at objectively, I guess I can't help you because all YOU ever saw were 2 ****ing games that Geno Smith has EVER played. His worst two games of his career, to boot.

If someone else would have done that at any point in the last few years, you would clown them.

Some of us have watched nearly every game of his from the last two years.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:50 PM   #312
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Reading ten million mock drafts provides absolutely no clarity and it's just ridiculous to believe that anyone has any idea of where these players will land, especially before the Combines and personal visits begin.

It's conjecture: Guys sit around and try to match players with needs. That's it. And they all read each other's mock drafts and influence each because they want to be seen as "right" at the end of the day.

It's a pointless exercise, especially this early in the process.
Wasn't really talking about that, more what kiper and mayock are saying
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:53 PM   #313
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I didn't say that at all.
No where does your post say "Prospects".

You asked who was better coming out of college. First off, that can't be answered because Smith hasn't played in the NFL yet but I think it's safe to say that many of those players, especially Brady, were missed by scouts.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:56 PM   #314
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Chill out Dane, that's what he meant.

As a prospect, Geno is superior to guys who are 6 feet tall, and superior to almost every guy who only had one year of decent production...like Tannehill.
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Old 02-20-2013, 01:58 PM   #315
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Some of us have watched nearly every game of his from the last two years.
I'll be completely honest: I don't give a ****. I don't give a **** how many games you've watched or GoChiefs or Milkman. It doesn't matter.

What matter is the GM of the Kansas City Chiefs said that there is NO QB in this draft worthy of a first round grade. Period. End of story.

That's the SAME EXACT THING that's been said by reporters and scouts during the 2012 college season and the 2013 offseason.

Now, due to need, a QB or two might be chosen in the first round but that doesn't mean that they're true first round talent. Some teams will just "roll the dice".

All this blather and bluster about "I've watched "film" is ridiculous nonsense, especially BEFORE THE COMBINES.

And JFC, the guy didn't show up at the Senior Bowl and those that did, sucked ass. So all this "Oh, the draft class is no weaker than in year's past" is absolute garbage.

Especially considering not one of these guys has played a down in the NFL.
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