Home Mail Chat Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $31869
Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 38,471
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:13 PM   #346
Infidel Goat Infidel Goat is offline
Beer Sherpa
 
Infidel Goat's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: shackled in a cellar
Casino cash: $12593
In sportsspeak, it's 110%...
Posts: 1,580
Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.Infidel Goat must have mowed badgirl's lawn.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:17 PM   #347
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $31869
70% chance of #1 with guaranteed top 3 spot.
Posts: 38,471
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:17 PM   #348
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $29212
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
PERCENTAGE! NOW!!!
My guess: 65% for #1 pick... something like 95% that we get top 2 pick.
Posts: 18,394
AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:19 PM   #349
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $29212
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
70% chance of #1 with guaranteed top 3 spot.
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
Posts: 18,394
AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.AustinChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:21 PM   #350
UberSparky UberSparky is offline
Starter
 
UberSparky's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Valley "freaking" Falls
Casino cash: $5000
Update now game is over!
Posts: 87
UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.UberSparky has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:22 PM   #351
kcpasco kcpasco is offline
MVP
 

Join Date: Sep 2007
Casino cash: $13563
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
I think Denver will be playing for a bye
Posts: 10,507
kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.kcpasco is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:23 PM   #352
Chiefs Pantalones Chiefs Pantalones is offline
GO CHIEFS!!!!!!
 
Chiefs Pantalones's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Arrowhead
Casino cash: $18817
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
They're gonna be playing for seeding right?
__________________
Don't be fooled by my username, I'm white.
Posts: 26,262
Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Chiefs Pantalones 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:24 PM   #353
tk13 tk13 is offline
...
 
tk13's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $42600
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcpasco View Post
I think Denver will be playing for a bye
Depends on what happens tonight. If NE wins they move back into the 2 spot. If they win out they could possibly clinch the 2 seed during their 1PM game week 17. The Chiefs and Broncos don't play until 4, so we might already know by then.

That's probably the most likely scenario. Houston's not out of the woods yet either though. Denver got whipped by both Houston and NE though, so they aren't going to be winning any tiebreakers.
Posts: 47,909
tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:25 PM   #354
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
PermaBanned
 
DeezNutz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jouissance
Casino cash: $11670
IND needs to win, so this is great news for Chiefs fans.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgirl View Post
If you met me in person and didn't know who I was you would never guess it was me.
Posts: 47,519
DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.DeezNutz is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:25 PM   #355
ILChief ILChief is offline
MVP
 
ILChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Casino cash: $24931
So we need the 49ers to win?
Posts: 10,388
ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:25 PM   #356
007 007 is offline
Shaken. Not stirred.
 
007's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: London
Casino cash: $35326
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13 View Post
Depends on what happens tonight. If NE wins they move back into the 2 spot. If they win out they could possibly clinch the 2 seed during their 1PM game at the end of the season. The Chiefs and Broncos don't play until 4, so we might already know by then.
who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh
__________________
Tell me, what lunatic asylum did they let you out of?
Posts: 60,400
007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.007 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:26 PM   #357
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $31869
As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.
Posts: 38,471
cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.cdcox is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:28 PM   #358
ILChief ILChief is offline
MVP
 
ILChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Casino cash: $24931
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guru View Post
who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh
Miami
Posts: 10,388
ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.ILChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:28 PM   #359
tk13 tk13 is offline
...
 
tk13's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2001
Casino cash: $42600
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guru View Post
who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh
They're at home against Miami.

Next week they are at Jacksonville... so if they can win tonight the odds are in their favor I'd say.

Houston is at home against Minnesota and then @Indy. They'd have to lose both though to fall behind Denver.
Posts: 47,909
tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.tk13 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-16-2012, 06:29 PM   #360
The Bad Guy The Bad Guy is offline
Scott Pioli
 
The Bad Guy's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: The Copacobana
Casino cash: $13745
Even if that Denver game means nothing to them, do you really think that this offense could score on Denver's 2nd string?

They just got shutout by the Raiders. One of the worst D's in the league.

This team is an epic shitpile.
__________________
Posts: 23,004
The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.The Bad Guy has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:15 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.