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Old 02-28-2013, 06:51 PM  
Frankie Frankie is offline
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A reliable predictor of future quarterback success would revolutionize the NFL.

But look who it has picked?

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-dra...on-predictions

"Enter 2013 Lewin Career Forecast, courtesy of Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders and Dave Lewin, who gets credited for inventing the system a number of years ago. The LCF passes the sniff test a little better than the Rule of 26-27-60. It is also exceedingly more complicated. Here's Schatz to explain the rules:

There are seven variables involved in the Lewin Career Forecast:

Career college games started
Career completion rate. Because of recent rises in completion rate across college football, this is a logarithmic variable, so that as a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.
Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."
For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)
A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.
Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.
Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season."
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