Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 397

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

-King- · 06-17-2013, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

If they want Ventura, they can stick it where it counts.

I'd have no problem with it. He's hitting 335 this year with 8 homers. At this point in the season, I'd rather have a player who can help immediately than a prospect who may or may not pan out. We're in win now mode.

Chiefspants · 06-17-2013, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

I'd have no problem with it. He's hitting 335 this year with 8 homers. At this point in the season, I'd rather have a player who can help immediately than a prospect who may or may not pan out. We're in win now mode.

I suppose I could come around to the deal. It would be hard, with Kendrick's contract (4/35, I believe) we would need him to continue performing at a high level (.285/.345/.470 would be nice).

What worries me is that his production will suffer from the moment he reaches Kauffman Stadium. 4/35 is a big commitment for the Royals, and that contract could send us back a long way if Kendrick performs as he did last year (.287/.325/.400 with 8 HR's).

I know we've been burned by prospects in the past, but with Santana's inevitable departure, it would be nice to keep our options open for the rotation next year.

duncan_idaho · 06-17-2013, 02:44 PM

Situation 1:

Royals trade Kyle Smith, Orlando Calixte, Will Smith and Jason Adam for 0.5 seasons of Chase Utley

Pros:
Utley is very good when healthy
Utley is a winner who has experienced the highest levels of success
Utley is the best bat/defense combo available
Relatively low prospect price paid

Cons:
Utley is old
Utley is injury prone
Utley walks after this year

Situation 2:

Royals trade Yordano Ventura and Orlando Calixte for 2.5 years of Howie Kendrick at $9 million and change/year.

Pros:
Kendrick is in his prime
Kendrick is controlled for 2 more years after 2013
Kendrick is above-average with both bat and glove at 2B
Kendrick offers some RH pop, which the team sorely misses

Cons:
Salary (contract is a bit high for KC)
Likely a .290/.330/.430 player, and salary restricts budget
Complementary, not leading, player
Higher prospect price paid

In a vacuum, I would rather have Kendrick through 2015, but his contract probably prohibits KC from chasing rotation reinforcements in FA (even mid-level guys would probably be available for that price range) or pursuing a second-tier OF to play RF. And in trading Ventura, you've traded your best internal option for a quick-impact, high-level starter.

The combo of lower cost/more flexibility from Utley is more appealing to me.

Utley now + Ventura and a FA SP (AJ Burnett?) or FA RF (Mike Morse? Jason Kubel?) is a little more appealing to me than just Kendrick by himself.

It helps more now, IMO, and allows them to fill critical holes more capably moving forward.

**Saul Good** · 06-17-2013, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Situation 1:

Royals trade Kyle Smith, Orlando Calixte, Will Smith and Jason Adam for 0.5 seasons of Chase Utley

Pros:
Utley is very good when healthy
Utley is a winner who has experienced the highest levels of success
Utley is the best bat/defense combo available
Relatively low prospect price paid

Cons:
Utley is old
Utley is injury prone
Utley walks after this year

Situation 2:

Royals trade Yordano Ventura and Orlando Calixte for 2.5 years of Howie Kendrick at $9 million and change/year.

Pros:
Kendrick is in his prime
Kendrick is controlled for 2 more years after 2013
Kendrick is above-average with both bat and glove at 2B
Kendrick offers some RH pop, which the team sorely misses

Cons:
Salary (contract is a bit high for KC)
Likely a .290/.330/.430 player, and salary restricts budget
Complementary, not leading, player

In a vacuum, I would rather have Kendrick through 2015, but his contract probably prohibits KC from chasing rotation reinforcements in FA (even mid-level guys would probably be available for that price range) or pursuing a second-tier OF to play RF.

The combo of lower cost/more flexibility from Utley is more appealing to me.

Utley now + Ventura and a FA SP (AJ Burnett?) or FA RF (Mike Morse? Jason Kubel?) is a little more appealing to me than just Kendrick by himself.

It helps more now, IMO, and allows them to fill critical holes more capably moving forward.

Why would we need to chase rotation reinforcements in FA?

Chiefspants · 06-17-2013, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Why would we need to chase rotation reinforcements in FA?

Kendrick's deal essentially gives us no breathing room when it comes to the rotation. If Kendrick reverts to his career output (.290/.330/.430 with around 10 HRs) and Paulino is injured again and/or Guthrie regresses, the situation for 2014 begins to look pretty dire.

If we aren't obligated to Kendrick, we would at least have the space to sign a bat with more power, make an effort to extend Shields or sign another starter. We also would still possess the luxury to test out Ventura's ability in the rotation, of course.

duncan_idaho · 06-17-2013, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Why would we need to chase rotation reinforcements in FA?

Well, if you let Santana walk and you trade Ventura, you're looking at:

1) Shields
2) ______
3) Guthrie
4) Davis/Mendoza
5) Duffy/Paulino

We haven't seen how Duffy and Paulino react to being back in the show. In all likelihood, they're just fine. But it's also possible that one or both struggle to re-acclimate to the majors.

Also, neither has pitched at the level of a good No. 2 starter over a full season, something Santana is doing this season and has done multiple times in the past.

If you're trying to win in 2014, I think you have to enter the season with a better option as your No. 2 starter than Jeremy Guthrie/or hoping for Paulino and Duffy to be that.

Prison Bitch · 06-17-2013, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Kendrick is hot right now, but when he evens out he generally hits around .285/.330/.410 with around 10-15 HR's a year (numbers that will likely go down once he arrives at Kauffman.)

From a pure value standpoint, I would want a little more in return for the best prospect we currently have in the minors.

Awful.

duncan_idaho · 06-17-2013, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chiefspants

Kendrick's deal essentially gives us no breathing room when it comes to the rotation. If Kendrick reverts to his career output (.290/.330/.430 with <10 HRs) and Paulino is injured again and/or Guthrie regresses, the situation for 2014 begins to look pretty dire.

If we aren't obligated to Kendrick, we would at least have the space to sign a bat with more power or make an effort to extend Shields/Start Ventura/Go after another starter.

This!

Right now, the Royals will have enough payroll flex to pursue solid, second-level FAs. Probably two of them, if they keep payroll where it is. That could mean adding a bat like Mike Morse or Jason Kubel in the OF and a solid SP to strengthen the rotation spots behind Shields.

CaliforniaChief · 06-17-2013, 05:04 PM

Shields and Santana are short-term solutions at SP, and Guthrie probably isn't much better.

So what appears as a glut of starting pitchers now could quickly become a dearth.

So if we trade Ventura because of durability concerns, we'd better get something really nice in return.

Sure-Oz · 06-17-2013, 05:26 PM

I'd deal Ventura for a power bat only

sedated · 06-17-2013, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

pursuing a second-tier OF to play RF. And in trading Ventura, you've traded your best internal option for a quick-impact, high-level starter.

So Im assuming you dont see Lough as much of a long-term option at RF?

BigCatDaddy · 06-17-2013, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated

So Im assuming you dont see Lough as much of a long-term option at RF?

On this team you need to get some power from the RF position. 20-30 HR a year type of guy.

Pitt Gorilla · 06-17-2013, 10:19 PM

Man, I wish we could have acquired Scherzer. He was outstanding at Mizzou and is dealing now.

-King- · 06-17-2013, 10:48 PM

You guys don't think that if we get into playoff contention or even make the playoffs, that David Glass will open up the purse strings $5-$10 mil more next year? It would be kind of hard justifying not doing it because of the money he'll make off attendance if we're in the playoff race late in the season.

duncan_idaho · 06-17-2013, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedated

So Im assuming you dont see Lough as much of a long-term option at RF?

Better than Jeff Fracoeur but really best as a 4th OF type. Really need someone who is at least a 15 HR/40 2B threat out there.

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1780308	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 21,077

06-17-2013, 02:44 PM	#5943
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1780308	Situation 1: Royals trade Kyle Smith, Orlando Calixte, Will Smith and Jason Adam for 0.5 seasons of Chase Utley Pros: Utley is very good when healthy Utley is a winner who has experienced the highest levels of success Utley is the best bat/defense combo available Relatively low prospect price paid Cons: Utley is old Utley is injury prone Utley walks after this year Situation 2: Royals trade Yordano Ventura and Orlando Calixte for 2.5 years of Howie Kendrick at $9 million and change/year. Pros: Kendrick is in his prime Kendrick is controlled for 2 more years after 2013 Kendrick is above-average with both bat and glove at 2B Kendrick offers some RH pop, which the team sorely misses Cons: Salary (contract is a bit high for KC) Likely a .290/.330/.430 player, and salary restricts budget Complementary, not leading, player Higher prospect price paid In a vacuum, I would rather have Kendrick through 2015, but his contract probably prohibits KC from chasing rotation reinforcements in FA (even mid-level guys would probably be available for that price range) or pursuing a second-tier OF to play RF. And in trading Ventura, you've traded your best internal option for a quick-impact, high-level starter. The combo of lower cost/more flexibility from Utley is more appealing to me. Utley now + Ventura and a FA SP (AJ Burnett?) or FA RF (Mike Morse? Jason Kubel?) is a little more appealing to me than just Kendrick by himself. It helps more now, IMO, and allows them to fill critical holes more capably moving forward. __________________ "You gotta love livin', cause dying is a pain in the ass." ---- Sinatra
Posts: 21,077

06-17-2013, 05:04 PM	#5949
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $12422899	Shields and Santana are short-term solutions at SP, and Guthrie probably isn't much better. So what appears as a glut of starting pitchers now could quickly become a dearth. So if we trade Ventura because of durability concerns, we'd better get something really nice in return.
Posts: 17,319

06-17-2013, 10:19 PM	#5953
Pitt Gorilla Banned! Join Date: Sep 2000 Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201 Casino cash: $2980194	Man, I wish we could have acquired Scherzer. He was outstanding at Mizzou and is dealing now. __________________ Your son is a bench warmer because of your weak genetics not because of the coach Norlin Mommsen is disgusting.
Posts: 46,007

06-17-2013, 10:48 PM	#5954
-King- ▓▓▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▒▓▓ Join Date: Jan 2009 Casino cash: $2515743	You guys don't think that if we get into playoff contention or even make the playoffs, that David Glass will open up the purse strings $5-$10 mil more next year? It would be kind of hard justifying not doing it because of the money he'll make off attendance if we're in the playoff race late in the season. __________________ 🏁
Posts: 63,872