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Old 10-23-2019, 07:44 PM  
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DVOA rankings, 2019

DVOA says we are a hell of a lot better than most of you.

Week 7

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...7-dvoa-ratings

Total DVOA

Quote:
3rd
Offensive DVOA

Quote:
2nd
Defensive DVOA

Quote:
13th
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Old 10-23-2019, 07:57 PM   #2
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Patriots schedule by DVOA: 17, 32, 30, 21, 29, 27, 30.

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Old 10-23-2019, 07:58 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Patriots schedule by DVOA: 17, 32, 30, 21, 29, 27, 30.

Curious, whats our look like?
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Old 10-23-2019, 07:59 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Patriots schedule by DVOA: 17, 32, 30, 21, 29, 27, 30.

Iím sure itíll look even worse if you just do their offenses.
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Old 10-23-2019, 08:02 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chiefforlife View Post
Curious, whats our look like?
#5

theirs is #32
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Old 10-23-2019, 08:14 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
DVOA says we are a hell of a lot better than most of you.

Week 7

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dv...7-dvoa-ratings

Total DVOA



Offensive DVOA



Defensive DVOA
Yep, pretty average defensive output overall so far
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Old 10-24-2019, 07:56 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Patriots schedule by DVOA: 17, 32, 30, 21, 29, 27, 30.


We all get it, but 1 passing TD and 3 TDs total allowed on offense versus 18 picks is kinda ridiculous.

Also ridiculous -- if the Patriots didn't score a single point on offense this year, their W-L record would be 3-3-1.
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:00 AM   #8
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That same metric says the Patriots have the best defense ever...
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:07 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
We all get it, but 1 passing TD and 3 TDs total allowed on offense versus 18 picks is kinda ridiculous.

Also ridiculous -- if the Patriots didn't score a single point on offense this year, their W-L record would be 3-3-1.
reminds me of the 2010 chiefs and their fake news record against a cupcake schedule
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:10 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -King- View Post
That same metric says the Patriots have the best defense ever...

The interesting thing is that the Patriots are playing a MUCH more high risk / high reward defense than they have historically. Alot of zero blitzes, which Belichick disfavors usually. The old "bend but don't break" is out the door, and now it's "break them, ****ing NOW".

With inexperienced and/or mediocre quarterbacks and not-great offenses, you can do that stuff. With Mahomes and Hill, a zero blitz probably results in lofting a ball deep for Hill with no safety help over the top. Not a plan I expect to see the Patriots employ.

Bottom line -- the Patriots are performing at a historically elite level and utterly crushing these offenses in a way that most defenses could never dream of doing, BUT how much of that will translate over against good to great offenses? Normally against a guy like Mahomes, the Patriots will want to make him grind it out. Very controlled pass rush lanes to keep him in the pocket, and force him to make good decisions, including taking check-downs etc. over and over and over in the hope that he screws up or gets frustrated or whatever.

Not sure what the plan will be in 2019, but no doubt the Patriots are employing a different look and to some degree different philosophy than most of the last 18 years.
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:12 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammock Parties View Post
reminds me of the 2010 chiefs and their fake news record against a cupcake schedule

So DVOA matters and is a worthwhile stat for the Chiefs, but a worthless stat for the Patriots? Ok.

See my prior post. The high risk/high reward approach the Pats have used so far have resulted in an absurdly successful defense, but is likely not sustainable against very good offenses.
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:24 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
The interesting thing is that the Patriots are playing a MUCH more high risk / high reward defense than they have historically. Alot of zero blitzes, which Belichick disfavors usually. The old "bend but don't break" is out the door, and now it's "break them, ****ing NOW".

With inexperienced and/or mediocre quarterbacks and not-great offenses, you can do that stuff. With Mahomes and Hill, a zero blitz probably results in lofting a ball deep for Hill with no safety help over the top. Not a plan I expect to see the Patriots employ.

Bottom line -- the Patriots are performing at a historically elite level and utterly crushing these offenses in a way that most defenses could never dream of doing, BUT how much of that will translate over against good to great offenses? Normally against a guy like Mahomes, the Patriots will want to make him grind it out. Very controlled pass rush lanes to keep him in the pocket, and force him to make good decisions, including taking check-downs etc. over and over and over in the hope that he screws up or gets frustrated or whatever.

Not sure what the plan will be in 2019, but no doubt the Patriots are employing a different look and to some degree different philosophy than most of the last 18 years.
Great post. Really good summary on what has happened and acknowledgment of who it's happened against.

Personally, I think BB is gonna mix it up more vs elite QB's and incorporate the blitzing they've been doing more than he has in the past. Will be interesting to see how well it works against better competition. I normally HATE watching Pats games but I'm looking forward to weeks 11-14 when they play Wentz, Dak, Watson, Mahomes to get a glimpse of how they handle a string of good-to-great QB's.
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Old 10-24-2019, 09:26 AM   #13
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week 7 against a lousy miserable wreck offense with a statue at QB...ranking of 3.

I suspect it will be a lot lower after GB and Rogers have their way with them.
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Old 10-24-2019, 09:47 AM   #14
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Must be nice to finish your season against 2 of 3 teams that are currently 0-13...and start with 7 of 8 games against ones that are 9-35....if played the next two weeks instead, that would be 9 games against 9-48 teams.

Historic defense, my ass...
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Old 10-24-2019, 10:14 AM   #15
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People act like what Belichik is doing this year with the heavy blitzes and man coverage is new. They started it last year towards the end of the season. They did it heavily against Rapistburger in the Pitt game and barely lost. Then they pounded San Diego with it in the divisional round and pounded the chiefs in the first half of AFCC. The 2nd half of that AFCC is a recipe how to counter it.

IMO it's moreso to make up for the pass rush deficiencies than it is anything else. In a base 4 man rush Belichik probably has bottom 5 pass rush personnel, and it's been that way most of the time since Chandler Jones left. But he messes with pressures and is consistently able to get rush production by creating free runs at the QB & matchups: DE against TE, LB against RB. The "amoeba" looks prevent the QB & Oline from getting clean reads & the secondary forces the QB to hold the ball. It's definitely a synergy where the sum is way way greater than the individual parts. Most of that front 7 are slapdick castoffs from other teams, and they were castoffs for a reason.
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