538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I shouldn't generalize about all Tea Partiers I was more specifically talking about certain candidates like Sharron Angle, Christinie ODonnell, Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin etc etc.

Don't forget Joe Walsh, the poster child for the dipshits.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)

Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)

That's funny, but we don't want your cherrypicked list--where are the ones supporting the notion that Romney is going to get 330 EVs?

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by Swanman

Don't forget Joe Walsh, the poster child for the dipshits.

I'll call your Walsh with a Reid and raise you a Pelosi and a Boxer.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Swanman

Don't forget Joe Walsh, the poster child for the dipshits.

And Steve King.

You know I will be happy if Obama wins but I will be extremely happy if King, Bachmann, Walsh and West all lose. That would be like one of the greatest days ever.

[Swanman]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

And Steve King.

You know I will be happy if Obama wins but I will be extremely happy if King, Bachmann, Walsh and West all lose. That would be like one of the greatest days ever.

Walsh will likely be curbstomped by Duckworth.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Depends on how many GOP show up and how many DEM show up.

My wife and son went to vote today. The county clerk said that the Dem's had 70% and R's 20% of the early vote. Not really a reflection of the final total vote, but still interesting since the county is 60% R to 40% D.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Of course turnout but at some point the GOP will need to wake up and quit nominating people who are extreme or far right. I am not talking about Romney but some of these senate seats the Republicans could have won in 2010 and now 2012.

no shit. They would have control of the senate and the presidency but they decided to go goldwater right and run the Republican Kerry for President when the Presidency was theres for the taking. And now with the Latino vote threatening Texas, Florida and Arizona. The EC math is going to get worse.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

We can all thank Sarah Palin for that

just the thought that we almost has someone that stupid a heartbeat away from the Presidency still blows my mind.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Almost every poll in the last week has shown Obama tied or with a small lead in Florida. 2-3 weeks ago Romney was up 5-6 points in all the polls. Obama, Biden, Clinton have all been in my city this week.

If romney loses Florida that is checkmate no matter if he takes all the other battleground states.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

I don't think there's any sign of an anti-intellectual movement in this thread.

Not in this thread but in the Republican party and defintely in the Tea Party branch.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

I'll call your Walsh with a Reid and raise you a Pelosi and a Boxer.

the Dems are just partisan assholes. The walsh's are not only partisan assholes, they seems like uneducated hypocrites that don't value anything outside their own little world.

[Calcountry]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

just the thought that we almost has someone that stupid a heartbeat away from the Presidency still blows my mind.

Yeah, no shit.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by Calcountry

Yeah, no shit.

Biden is a gaffe machine but he not anywhere as stupid as Palin. Not even in the ballpark. This aint no ballpark.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

My wife and son went to vote today. The county clerk said that the Dem's had 70% and R's 20% of the early vote. Not really a reflection of the final total vote, but still interesting since the county is 60% R to 40% D.

Waiting in line with another voter story.

Asked who they were voting for and they said as of yesterday it was Romney Was undecided until last week. But last night when she saw the video of Obama hugging and comforting the women who had lost everything and was crying etc she said it reminded her that Obama probably cared more about her and knew more about her struggles than Romney, so she is giving Obama another chance.

[whoman69]

New daily numbers are in. 538 gives Obama an 81.4% chance of victory. Colorado and Virginia are both above 65% to Obama while Florida has fallen to 55.7% to Romney. Iowa and New Hampshire are approaching 80% to Obama. Nevada is better than 87% to Obama. Wisconsin is nearing sure thing for Obama at 93.5%.