LNBS: Aaron Murray will be our Nick Foles

[BossChief]

I think both guys waited a year too long to enter the draft.

If Nick Foles had come out after his junior year, he would have had a chance to be a first round pick. If Aaron Murray came out last year, he would have, too. Heck, Tony Dungy said on espn last year that he would take Aaron Murray first overall if he had come out.

I know some here have said the guy won't ever have a chance to start, but I really think the kid can do everything Alex Smith did last year and then some, if given the chance.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

The Chiefs save $1M against the cap to cut him this season, correct? If that's correct, there's almost zero reason to cut him this year.

Next year, which is completely irrelevant at this point, he's gone. Murray will likely be here. If he shows signs, he might be the #2. If he doesn't, he'll have one more year to develop behind a vet signed (I hope) on the cheap to be the primary backup.

Hell, the Chiefs will likely try to draft over the top of Murray next year, too, if he drinks from the dick sock Stanzi style.

I wonder if Stanzi will make the Jags roster

[Discuss Thrower]

Have you anything to say about the spreadsheet I linked early BC? Because I'd like to hear your take on it as it relates to Murray and the other recently drafted QBs.

[OldSchool]

The fact is this.

Dorsey is a guy who stays true to his board.

His board told him that Aaron Murray was the 163rd best player in this entire draft and a 5th round talent. Hell, 31 other teams in the league decided that Aaron Murray wasn't worth taking before the 163rd pick of the draft. If he thought that Murray was better than that or any more than a backup in this league, he would have taken him in the 3rd at the very latest. Good QBs are valued too high for teams to just allow them to slip in the draft and hope that they can get them later.

You guys keep comparing him to Drew Brees and Russel Wilson. With the success of those two in this league, do you really think that, with the amount of tape that he has, if teams honestly thought that Murray had that kind of upside, he would get passed up by every QB needy team in this league and by every team that has an aging starter?

It's a QB driven league; QBs are valued astronomically higher than most any other position and even if you already have a solid starter, a high quality back-up still has tremendous value as trade bait or an emergency starter.

It's no accident that Murray was available at the 23rd pick in the 5th round after no team sought fit to even spend a supplemental pick on him in the two rounds prior.

Let's try to temper our expectations for him.

[keg in kc]

I don't get where the noodle arm stuff with murray comes from. Not every NFL QB is going to have Jeff George's arm. If a guy can learn an offense that fits his skillset (and that of his teammates) intricately, can read defenses like a book, and has enough arm strength to lead receivers into small windows, he'll be okay.

"Adequate" is actually fine, in terms of arm strength, if the other tools are more than that. That's how Trent Green averaged nearly 4000 yards a season here for half a decade, and it's why Tom Brady and most likely Drew Brees will be going into the Hall of Fame. Hell, I'm not even sure the mental part isn't the most important facet of them all, for all the fascination we have with the physical attributes.

[BossChief]

It's a nice resource, and it's worth keeping an eye on his performance against the better defenses if he ever earns a chance to lead an NFL team.

If you want my personal opinion, I think that with quarterbacks, you look for growth in not only production but moreso with the capacity of what the player can understand, interpret and translate classroom football with what happens on the field the fastest and most efficiently.

I think these numbers are based on his career as a whole and if you weigh the averages with what he was able to do last year, you will see that growth.

He had really good games against LSU, Auburn and S Carolina last year.

I'm glad we drafted him.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

The fact is this.

Dorsey is a guy who stays true to his board.

His board told him that Aaron Murray was the 163rd best player in this entire draft and a 5th round talent.

Has Dorsey actually said that? That Murray was the 163rd best player on his board? He might've been the 125th rated player for all we know.

[BossChief]

If Nick Foles had hurt his acl in November of his senior year, he would have fallen to the area Aaron Murray did.

Same goes for Russel Wilson.

I'm not sure how much weight the comments Tony Dungy made about Murray hold, but he said he'd take Aaron Murray first overall before the 2013 draft.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

The fact is this.

Dorsey is a guy who stays true to his board.

His board told him that Aaron Murray was the 163rd best player in this entire draft and a 5th round talent. Hell, 31 other teams in the league decided that Aaron Murray wasn't worth taking before the 163rd pick of the draft. If he thought that Murray was better than that or any more than a backup in this league, he would have taken him in the 3rd at the very latest. Good QBs are valued too high for teams to just allow them to slip in the draft and hope that they can get them later.

You guys keep comparing him to Drew Brees and Russel Wilson. With the success of those two in this league, do you really think that, with the amount of tape that he has, if teams honestly thought that Murray had that kind of upside, he would get passed up by every QB needy team in this league and by every team that has an aging starter?

It's a QB driven league; QBs are valued astronomically higher than most any other position and even if you already have a solid starter, a high quality back-up still has tremendous value as trade bait or an emergency starter.

It's no accident that Murray was available at the 23rd pick in the 5th round after no team sought fit to even spend a supplemental pick on him in the two rounds prior.

Let's try to temper our expectations for him.

This is the part of the debate that turns everything to hell.

It's a complete logical fallacy to claim Murray can't be Brees or Wilson because he was selected at the 163rd pick in the draft. You're using as examples two QBs who were passed up by every single team at least once and saying a third QB can't be those guys BECAUSE teams passed him up repeatedly. Numerous counter-examples exist to poke a hole in your theory, but if any of the legit ones are mentioned (Tom Brady is the most popular) then people like me get accused of comparing Aaron Murray to Tom Brady, which is hardly the case.

If you're going to say a QB can't play in the NFL, talk about his traits, his experience, his shortcomings, and the stuff we can work with.

Again, we're not saying "**** stats." It's absolutely true that QBs picked in higher rounds do way better than QBs picked in the lower rounds. That's not in question, but nobody is challenging that notion. Just as nobody is challenging the notion that Murray has a tough road to climb to even be considered as a starting QB for a brief amount of time, much less be a great one.

There are ALWAYS exceptions, where QBs fall farther than they should into the middle rounds, a team picks a guy up, and he has a killer career. All people are doing is saying, "Aaron Murray has as good of a chance as any of the soon-to-be washed out late round QBs to make it past backup status." Which is true. Most NFL analysts, scouts, and draft gurus are saying that Murray has some intriguing things about him that can make him not just another Curtis Painter or Ricky Stanzi. That's it.

That's what this conversation is about.

[chiefs1111]

Originally Posted by SNR

I know you were. But the tweets and instagrams nevertheless revealed that Tyler Bray is too much of an airhead and a douchebag to ever put his arm talent to good use in the pros

Yup. Bray has a million dollar arm and a ten cent head

[Cannibal]

Originally Posted by SNR

He would also rather eat cake than stick his penis in a light socket.

It's true! Just ask him!

[R8RFAN]

[carcosa]

I wonder if Reid would pull a Pete Carroll and give the start to Murray if he truly outplayed Smith in camp.

I mean, that's proooobably not going to happen, but I guess my point is: even if Murray has potential to be our Nick Foles, will he get the chance to prove it without having to resort to Tonya Harding-ing Smith's knee?

[carcosa]

Originally Posted by Brainiac

And by the way, Brokie Croyle had a cannon. He never won an NFL game.

That's such a painful legacy. I wonder if he even admits that he played in the NFL? If I were him, I'd hole up in my mini-mansion and wait for my wife to get home from her professional dressage competitions or whatever fanciful thing Kelli Croyle probably does for a living.

[Valiant]

It is funny some on here use the term noodle arm on QBs that do not have it. I mean for ****s sake we saw it for years in Cassel. I figured most of us could tell the difference.

[Chiefnj2]

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...-qb-metrics-20

That is why he was a 5th rounder