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Old 07-06-2018, 01:17 PM  
eDave eDave is offline
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Soy farmers say they're getting hurt in Trump's trade war with China

"The math is simple. You tax soybean exports at 25 percent, and you have serious damage to U.S. farmers, said John Heisdorffer, a soybean grower from Keota, Iowa, and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), in a statement.

The growers' association said it had asked the administration to consider other ways of reducing the trade deficit and arranged for farmers and members meet with congressional lawmakers to get the administration to rethink the tariffs. This week, the ASA resorted "in a last-ditch social media effort" to posting pictures of individual soybean farmers and families on Twitter to appeal to the president and his advisers.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...-trade-n889346
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Old 02-23-2019, 03:46 PM   #106
IowaHawkeyeChief IowaHawkeyeChief is offline
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
We also exist in a global economy where when we lose advantage, someone else will scoop it up. We're trying to fight multiple trade wars at once instead of creating a unified front to confront China. And this is all being orchestrated by a man who doesn't understand trade deficits and is preaching to a choir that doesn't understand it either. He's not even listening to the economic advisors he appointed. He's going cowboy on this and seems to think that reducing the trade deficit is basically winning the war.

Now if he wins on IP and creates a great trade agreement to counter China, I'd support that. But again, the longer this war goes on the longer the list of casualties. The benefits of this trade war at this point better be astronomical. It seems like at this point he's selling bunt singles as grand slams.
This speaks for itself... You are delusional.
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:11 PM   #107
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Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
This is nave... Trade wars do hurt and outweigh the benefit, but mostly to the primary exporter. If you look at Trade Wars in US history, they were before we became the largest importer, and lost the title of worlds largest exporter. The current conflict is much different. We have a leader that wants free, but fair trade as an end result, a position long overdue. We have some short term pain, primarily with soybeans and some manufacturing, however, it is mild pain compared to the pain China has felt since we started applying pressure. China's pain will lead to a deal favorable to the US, as we are the importer, not the exporter as in previous trade wars. Your view is myopic to only focus on one of the few pain points for the US in negotiations where we hold most of the leverage.
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Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
Read my post above... Many have come full circle, understanding that this is much different than other trade wars involving the US. We now hold the leverage, with much less to lose as the worlds largest importer.
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:38 PM   #108
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Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
This speaks for itself... You are delusional.
Why? The costs at this point are very high. Short term and long term damage. We better be sold a big ****ing deal on a trade war outcome. More often than not these trade wars end up zero sum but usually with two losers. You can't just swear off the impact to the ag sector and every sector dependent on steel. There is a running list of companies that have reported major earnings losses and cost increases as a result of this.
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Old 02-23-2019, 11:45 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Why? The costs at this point are very high. Short term and long term damage. We better be sold a big ****ing deal on a trade war outcome. More often than not these trade wars end up zero sum but usually with two losers. You can't just swear off the impact to the ag sector and every sector dependent on steel. There is a running list of companies that have reported major earnings losses and cost increases as a result of this.


You overstate the impact on ag and steel. Thats the base error in your argument.

After that it's just endless arguments over the impact of trade disputes...a more accurate description than a trade war. Theory and political posturing. Terms like "major earnings losses" are more accurate stated as earnings that declined...far from the business being in the red. "Cost Increases" is accurate but don't reflect margin impact.
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Old 02-24-2019, 02:21 AM   #110
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Yup, then look at Russia increasing soy production by 8% and do the math on what's happening. If Brazil has good weather they'll capture a shitload more share too. It's why there are no winners in trade war. Even if the US "wins" a trade war, the market share will be permanently shifted as we opened the door for foreign countries to accelerate their production.

And farmers are getting double hit. It's not just the tariff restrictions. Heavy equipment is going to get hit really really hard with any price increase. And think we all know that many of these farms are working off razor thin margins so even a small negative change can be devastating.

It's not like anyone with any economic common sense, including tons of conservatives, didn't see this coming from 100 miles away.
China has more to lose when other countries attempt to take advantage of the the trade war. Manufacturing will move to countries where it is cheaper.
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Old 02-24-2019, 02:30 AM   #111
El Lobo Gordo El Lobo Gordo is offline
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Why? The costs at this point are very high. Short term and long term damage. We better be sold a big ****ing deal on a trade war outcome. More often than not these trade wars end up zero sum but usually with two losers. You can't just swear off the impact to the ag sector and every sector dependent on steel. There is a running list of companies that have reported major earnings losses and cost increases as a result of this.
There may be two "losers" but that doesn't mean there will not be winners. This is a cut throat game and there is an upside to hurting China at our own expense if it means helping China's other rivals.

I don't see a protracted trade war as being a disaster as long as it results in overall more free trade for us....which doesn't necessarily have to come from China.
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