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Old 11-09-2018, 08:29 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The decision on Steven Nelson is getting harder.

I have been very comfortable with the idea of pretty much dumping out our entire CB personnel this coming offseason and reloading through free agency splashes (Ronald Darby, anyone?) and multiple draft picks.

But listening to Locked On Chiefs this morning, Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick are in the entire league's top ten for "passer rating against."

Now, the decision on Scandrick isn't that hard. You float a one year contract to him, he's old, if he takes it that's fine, if not he's old you let him walk etc.

Nelson, however, is peaking right now. I don't know if he's who I want as a Bob Sutton starter on the outside, which seems to require more length and elite talent, but he's a slam dunk elite #3. But he probably knows he's a starter in the NFL for at least 10 teams in this league, so he could be demanding starter money.

And if you let him walk, you better be prepared to spend more for a starting outside corner, and Nelson is the most "known" a quantity as you're going to get.

What do we do about Steven Nelson this coming offseason?
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Old 11-12-2018, 09:03 PM   #31
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Iíd offer Ford a contract thatís structured like Watkins. Yeah itís expensive but itís really only for 3-4 years.
Gotta keep an eye on that rollover unless you're really just saying "**** it, win it while hes under his rookie deal..."

Maybe I'm being too cautious and not aggressive enough, but I really want this to be a 6-8 year wide open window and the only way to do that is with a lean cap and some rollover when your young guys approach their second contracts.

So with that in mind, total amount likely to be paid means way more to me than structure. Every dollar I save in year 1 is a dollar I can add to the next season cap as a credit.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:30 AM   #32
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So I've got a crazy idea on how we could get a corner. It's gonna take some imagination so hear me out. ….

The Jags are imploding from within. Like, Hindenburg just explosion of that locker room. Fighting, crazy shit.

Their star CB is making twitter posts about how they'll miss him when he's gone etc etc. DUde is obviously a bit nuts but he can play. You know, Jalen ramsey?

So, the Chiefs first rounder is probably gonna be at the later part of the first. We've seen what it takes to get a disgruntled CB on a rookie deal with Peters. I'll sweeten the pot and say, "How about my first this year and my 3rd next year to get rid of that headcase and fix your locker room"?

Boom.
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Old 11-13-2018, 11:23 AM   #33
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Just be aware that dude is going to want to be PAID. And can he co-exist in a locker room that’s got Mahomes as the leader?
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Old 11-13-2018, 11:36 AM   #34
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Just be aware that dude is going to want to be PAID. And can he co-exist in a locker room thatís got Mahomes as the leader?
Sure, but you're not gonna keep him the long haul anyway. Similar to what the Rams are doing with Peters.

In my scenario, you'd have him for his 4th and 5th year option, you could franchise him a year then when it's time to pay Pat, you let him walk.

Win.
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Old 11-13-2018, 01:17 PM   #35
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Sure, but you're not gonna keep him the long haul anyway. Similar to what the Rams are doing with Peters.

In my scenario, you'd have him for his 4th and 5th year option, you could franchise him a year then when it's time to pay Pat, you let him walk.

Win.
I'm becoming of the mind that lockdown corners are overpaid luxury items. Team defense and pass rush is the way to go.

If you have 11 above average players on your defense - sure, go nuts and splurge on a better CB. But if you have 9 above average players and 2 sub-standard ones, NFL OC's are going to find those 2 and pick them apart. Go ahead and add Ramsey but if you're still rolling guys like Parker out there or when it inevitably costs you draft capital and salary space and weakens other parts of the defense, they're just gonna find those holes. Rasmey's 5th year option as a top 10 pick is gonna be in the $13 million range so let's not act like he's not gonna be plenty expensive even on the 5th year tag.

I just don't see a sufficient ROI w/ these big money CBs.
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Old 11-13-2018, 01:41 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I'm becoming of the mind that lockdown corners are overpaid luxury items. Team defense and pass rush is the way to go.

If you have 11 above average players on your defense - sure, go nuts and splurge on a better CB. But if you have 9 above average players and 2 sub-standard ones, NFL OC's are going to find those 2 and pick them apart. Go ahead and add Ramsey but if you're still rolling guys like Parker out there or when it inevitably costs you draft capital and salary space and weakens other parts of the defense, they're just gonna find those holes. Rasmey's 5th year option as a top 10 pick is gonna be in the $13 million range so let's not act like he's not gonna be plenty expensive even on the 5th year tag.

I just don't see a sufficient ROI w/ these big money CBs.
Sure, but he's essentially your mercenary CB for 2 years.

I understand your concern, but I still think that you have to have stars on D. I also think a reason we feel these lockdown corners are overpaid luxury items is that we don't have very many that are truly lockdown.

Ramsey really is when his head is on straight.
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Old 11-13-2018, 05:25 PM   #37
RunKC RunKC is offline
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QB
Pass rusher
OT


That’s the top of your list for the first rd. I agree that corners are a luxury, especially if you have a good pass rush. I want a pass rush like we have this year as often as we can.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:41 PM   #38
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I still would like us to draft in the lower rounds fast tall wr who cant catch and turn into cbs. With todays wr there needs to be a switch of philosphy.
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Old 11-14-2018, 12:28 AM   #39
Buehler445 Buehler445 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I'm becoming of the mind that lockdown corners are overpaid luxury items. Team defense and pass rush is the way to go.

If you have 11 above average players on your defense - sure, go nuts and splurge on a better CB. But if you have 9 above average players and 2 sub-standard ones, NFL OC's are going to find those 2 and pick them apart. Go ahead and add Ramsey but if you're still rolling guys like Parker out there or when it inevitably costs you draft capital and salary space and weakens other parts of the defense, they're just gonna find those holes. Rasmey's 5th year option as a top 10 pick is gonna be in the $13 million range so let's not act like he's not gonna be plenty expensive even on the 5th year tag.

I just don't see a sufficient ROI w/ these big money CBs.
Agreed. I would extend that assessment to virtually all positions save QB. I would field arguments for tackles and passrush, but passrush can get bent at these prices.

Fact is, nobody at any position except QB affects a material amount of plays to pay for top line talent (or at least top line salary).

It comes back to production per unit salary cap and I just don't see paying market leading dollars at the positions that aren't QB. Not to say I want all rookies and vet minimum contracts out here, but if you look at the top 5 or so at each position there are very few of them that you could objectively say are worth it.
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Old 11-14-2018, 09:30 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Buehler445 View Post
Agreed. I would extend that assessment to virtually all positions save QB. I would field arguments for tackles and passrush, but passrush can get bent at these prices.

Fact is, nobody at any position except QB affects a material amount of plays to pay for top line talent (or at least top line salary).

It comes back to production per unit salary cap and I just don't see paying market leading dollars at the positions that aren't QB. Not to say I want all rookies and vet minimum contracts out here, but if you look at the top 5 or so at each position there are very few of them that you could objectively say are worth it.
Your OTs are worth paying as well.

Look at what the Cardinals strafing Fisher and Schwartz did to our offense in the 2nd half.

If pass rushers are worth paying, then the guys that slow them down are worth paying as well.

QB
LT
RT
Edge
WR

Obviously a generational talent at other positions like Donald at DT or even someone like Keuchly at MLB could be worth it as well, but Andy's 'shell' concept has never been more accurate than it is today.
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Old 11-14-2018, 10:02 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Your OTs are worth paying as well.

Look at what the Cardinals strafing Fisher and Schwartz did to our offense in the 2nd half.

If pass rushers are worth paying, then the guys that slow them down are worth paying as well.

QB
LT
RT
Edge
WR

Obviously a generational talent at other positions like Donald at DT or even someone like Keuchly at MLB could be worth it as well, but Andy's 'shell' concept has never been more accurate than it is today.
Define shell concept
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Old 11-15-2018, 01:44 PM   #42
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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So here's a theory.

Steven Nelson is about to hit free agency in 2019. Chiefs are on the phone, and they're offering 3 years at 8m/year or whatever. Nelson's agent tells him a couple teams will offer him 11m/year.

Nelson is a supremely confident guy but he can't ignore the Marcus Peters situation, can he? Peters' lack of system fit and worse coaching than what he had in Kansas City has probably now cost him tens of millions of dollars on his next contract.

Any chance Nelson looks at that and thinks to himself he could make more money long term by staying a Chief?

Sure he loses about $9m total, comparing a 3 year/$8m per year deal to a 3 year/$11m per year deal another team might offer him.

But!

He'd almost certainly have a shot at a real money contract in 2022, whereas if his play fell off on another team with worse coaching, his big money contract days may be over.

Anybody else think that's a real possibility? I need BossChief in here; this feels like a very BossChief theory.
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:24 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
So here's a theory.

Steven Nelson is about to hit free agency in 2019. Chiefs are on the phone, and they're offering 3 years at 8m/year or whatever. Nelson's agent tells him a couple teams will offer him 11m/year.

Nelson is a supremely confident guy but he can't ignore the Marcus Peters situation, can he? Peters' lack of system fit and worse coaching than what he had in Kansas City has probably now cost him tens of millions of dollars on his next contract.

Any chance Nelson looks at that and thinks to himself he could make more money long term by staying a Chief?

Sure he loses about $9m total, comparing a 3 year/$8m per year deal to a 3 year/$11m per year deal another team might offer him.

But!

He'd almost certainly have a shot at a real money contract in 2022, whereas if his play fell off on another team with worse coaching, his big money contract days may be over.

Anybody else think that's a real possibility? I need BossChief in here; this feels like a very BossChief theory.
You're overthinking shit. If he has a chance to make 3 million per more over the next 3 seasons then he'd be an idiot not to do so. This isn't a situation like you or I could get ourselves into. If you make $40k per year now and your boss walks into your office tomorrow and tells you he'd offer you $55k per over the next 3 years on a grant job but you don't have any guarantee to get your current job back and even make $40k per year, you'd still have an idea of your relative worth on the open market given your skill set, you'd still have an idea of the job market health in your area, and you're unlikely to physically deteriorate or get severely injured in a copier accident in that time span. The NFL doesn't offer those luxuries. You know your worth now and you don't even know if you'll be able to play in 3 years, much less the type of performance you'll put out there that will determine your worth. We can't say that Nelson is going to be an 8 per corner and play like an 8 per corner for the next 6 years if he stays in KC. That's different than if I could project you being an office employee capable of producing me $40,000 worth of TPS reports over the next 6 years. There's a difference between a hometown discount and not looking out for yourself.
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Old 11-17-2018, 12:05 PM   #44
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I think you have to choose between him and Fuller and Iíd MUCH rather extend Fuller.

Draft or sign some corners for cheap. Youíve got Smith and Ward developing on the 53 already.
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Old 11-26-2018, 12:37 PM   #45
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I'm pretty sure Fuller will be resigned but not Nelson.

Nelson has definitly been good this year but he will cost too much for a guy you don't know if he will always give you great play.

Fuller is a guy I trust to be consistently good, not Nelson.
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