2014 Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

25-man RosterAvailable HERE

AL Central Standings:

Link

Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects

Spoiler!

1) 3B Hunter Dozier ETA: 2015
Dozier started slowly at A+ Wilmington but caught fire in May and June, earning a mid-season promotion to AA Northwest Arkansas. Big, strong kid with good plate discipline skills and solid power who projects to be an above-average glove at 3B with solid power.

2) SS Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi ETA: 2017
Mondesis is the opposite of Dozier…. Started red-hot at Wilmington before back spasms derailed him for a few weeks and hasn’t gotten it going since coming back. Scouting reports have been great – defense and speed both improved over the offseason. Still a chance to be an elite SS, with 40 SB speed, plus glove, .300 average and some pop.

3) LHP Sean Manaea | ETA: 2015
Scouting reports outperform the stat line so far. Missing a ton of bats at A+ but not preventing runs like you’d expect to see. Needs to work deeper into games (gradually working about an inning deeper/month so far this year) and improve control. Walks are biggest concern right now, but could be elevated due to work on extra off-speed offerings. Still has No. 2 starter potential, could be higher if the great control he exhibited before his hip surgery eventually comes back.

4) RHP Kyle Zimmer| ETA: 2015
Should be NO. 1 on the list and is probably the Royals most VALUABLE current prospect, but he hasn’t thrown a ball in 4-5 weeks and had only been throwing for 2-3 weeks when he was shut down then.

5) LHP Brandon Finnegan| ETA: 2015
Top 2014 draft choice is an undersized lefty who will start at A+ Wilmington after anchoring CWS run for TCU. Good fastball, better slider, change that needs work to stick as a starter, but if he sticks, No. 2/No. 3 starter upside. Likely a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he doesn’t miss 1 start in the middle of the college season as a precautionary move.

6) RHP Miguel Almonte| ETA: 2016
Have heard some say Almonte is more advanced as a pitcher at A+ than Yordano Ventura was (comparison because both were cheap signs out of Latin America). Really advanced changeup and a curve that is working out well (where the ‘more advanced’ comment comes from). Fastball velo is good but not great – 92-94. Like Manaea, working on his second-best offspeed pitch and leaning less on his bread-and butter (changeup), which has hurt his numbers a bit.

7) RHP Christian Binford 2017
Reverse case of “don’t just scout stat lines.” Based on his stats at A+, you’d think he was an elite prospect, but there are questions about Binford’s stuff playing up at higher levels. Tall righty with great command of fastball, slider and a good and still developing changeup. None of those pitches profiles as better than average, though, limiting his likely upside to back-end rotation guy.

8) SS Orlando Calixte| ETA: 2016
I still like him more than many. Good combination of SS/MI skills and power. Started hot at NWA but in a slump at moment.

9)LHP Foster Griffin | ETA: 2019
Tall, projectable lefty taken in 2014 draft. Viewed as a great value in the sandwich round and probably would have been KC’s pick at No. 17 if Finnegan hadn’t fallen. High school arm who is going to take a while to develop.

10) RF Jorge Bonifacio| ETA: 2016
Hasn’t hit as well as expected in his second go-round at AA NWA. Power still sapped, and average skills have dipped. Once looked like he might be an option in RF at some point in 2015, now looks like 2016 is optimistic. Still young for his level.

11) 3B/2B Cheslor Cuthbert| ETA: 2016
Cuthbert has had better luck at NWA than Boni and is also extremely young for level. HE’s been moved to 2B since Dozier was promoted, which could put a new spin on Cuthbert’s prospects. If he sticks at 2B, bat plays up much better. Good OBP/plate discipline and solid power, but needs to continue improving contact skills

12) C Chase Vallot| ETA: 2020
Young (just 17) C with tremendous power. One of the top prep bats and a great value for KC where it got him. If he sticks at C, expect him to move slowly, but the bat may force the issue (or force him to another position).

13) C Zane Evans| ETA: 2017
GA Tech product has handled Wilmington better than most RH bats and probably is in line for a promotion to NWA sometime soon. Decent pop, decent skills behind the plate. Could be a nice reserve catcher.

14) RHP Scott Blewett| ETA: 2020
Tall, projectable righty with a fresh arm but some injury concerns on his shoulder that slipped him out of Round 1 of MLB draft. Big time potential.

15) CF Bubba Starling | ETA:
Bubba Starling has great tools. Bubba Starling (still) can’t hit. That’s all I have to say about that.

16) 1B Samir Duenez| ETA:
I still like him, even though the attempt to run him through full season ball at 17 did not go well.

17)LF/RF Elier Hernandez| ETA:
Hernandez still pops up in scouting reports but still is very raw and toolsy.

18) RHP Pedro Fernandez| ETA:
Pop-up player on the same track as Ventura and Almonte. Similar signing, similar profile. One to watch over next few years.

19) SS Marten Gasparini| ETA:
Royals’ most expensive international signing likely moves to CF eventually, but his speed and athleticism are intriguing abilities. Early reports from complex ball are very positive on him.

20) RHP Niklas Stephenson| ETA:
Interesting pop-up candidate who found 10 more MPH on his fastball by using a weighted ball during workouts over the winter. Now sits mid-90s with fastball and is dominating at rookie ball (after having an ERA over 8 there a year ago). Likely promoted to a higher challenge soon.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

[Nightfyre]

Nice. You just took this campaign to the next level.

[alnorth]

Originally Posted by Simplicity

Just curious... After looking at the FA's left... Am I missing something or why are we not thinking about Garza or Ubaldo? We'd have a sick rotation.

Our 2014 payroll is now going to be over $94MM. Both of those guys want big 4-5 year deals.

[DJ's left nut]

Because Garza isn't very good and Ubaldo's a huge wild card.

Seriously, I just don't understand the Matt Garza thing. He's a 2-pitch pitcher with a pretty straight fastball (with velocity that's been heading steadily downhill the last several years). He's not terribly durable. He's not a staff leader kind of personality. He was acquired to help the Rangers get over the hump and he largely spit the bit.

He's probably a 4.00 ERA guy. The Royals could get that down a little by virtue of their defense, but if you're going to have to give him 4 years and $55-60 million, you'd be far better served going dumpster diving and using your defense to help out a much smaller ticket item (this is what Dave Duncan did with Cardinals pitchers for much of the early/mid 2000s).

Garza's just not a smart signing for a team that has to worry about a budget. There's nothing but downside in the deal, IMO.

[alnorth]

Apparently the Yankees plan to blow through the $2-2.5MM limit on bonuses for international players (mostly 15-16 year olds), and spend somewhere around $15MM on them next offseason, because it won't impact their goal to get under $189MM on payroll, and the penalties for blowing through the cap on draft bonuses are too steep.

If they do that, they will pay a 100% tax on those international bonuses, and they will be prohibited from giving any international player more than a $300k bonus for 2 years, so they'd really need to make it count. (If MLB chooses to go to an international draft in 2015, then the penalty will change to forfeiting their 1st round pick for 2 years)

[Nightfyre]

I wish we would have signed Sano. There were only two teams in on him and he went for like 3.2 mil. Where are our DR scouts GMDM?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

I wish we would have signed Sano. There were only two teams in on him and he went for like 3.2 mil. Where are our DR scouts GMDM?

Hindsight at play.

There were a lot of questions about Sano when he was a FA. His age was widely called into question. He wanted record international money to sign (initially). Some questioned his ability to hit for average - his power was always evident.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Hindsight at play.

There were a lot of questions about Sano when he was a FA. His age was widely called into question. He wanted record international money to sign (initially). Some questioned his ability to hit for average - his power was always evident.

Eh. I recently watched a documentary on the subject, can't recall the name. The documentary made it pretty clear that he was not fabricating his age, but that information was being buried by an MLB inspector who was involved with the Pirates scout down there.

[cabletech94]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Eh. I recently watched a documentary on the subject, can't recall the name. The documentary made it pretty clear that he was not fabricating his age, but that information was being buried by an MLB inspector who was involved with the Pirates scout down there.

not being sarcastic here, but can you elaborate on the "an MLB inspector who was involved with the Pirates scout down there".

is there something more to that, or did i read that statement wrong?

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by cabletech94

not being sarcastic here, but can you elaborate on the "an MLB inspector who was involved with the Pirates scout down there".

is there something more to that, or did i read that statement wrong?

The MLB inspector in the DR who was investigating Sano's age was basically telling Sano to sign with the Pirates and he would make the whole investigation go away. At least, that was the documentary's assertion.

Despite the fact that the MLB had bonescans, DNA tests, appropriate birth documentation, and schooling documentation, the MLB investigator did not confirm Sano's age. It appeared to be totally underhanded and unethical.

[Nightfyre]

The documentary is available on netflix and was definitely worth watching.

Ballplayer: Pelotero

[alnorth]

Anyone want to put up their super-early predictions? We all can reserve the right to change our minds up to the end of spring training.

Last year I said they were roughly an 85-86 win team and would barely miss the 2nd wild card. I do not believe the Royals over or underachieved (though they were unusually healthy), a few players did well and a few did poorly but overall it was pretty much as expected. (Though if you want to be glass half-full, throw away May and look how good the record is then)

I believe that on paper, if there are no other significant moves, then the Royals have improved by about 3 games even with the Loss of Santana. Replacing our 2B black hole with a credible hitter makes an enormous difference, and we also won't have to watch a few months of Frenchy. Vargas probably helps mitigate some of the loss in the rotation. Those moves are probably worth about 4 wins, and I knock one win back off by assuming we won't be as lucky with the DL this season; someone important will miss some time.

So, 88-89 wins. I also think the Tigers got worse on paper, but it won't be quite enough. (though this season we won't need to be quite as lucky to catch them as we needed in 2013) The division race will not be lost until September, the Royals will grab the last wild card and play for the right to face whoever the best team in the AL ends up being in the ALDS, probably Texas.

[duncan_idaho]

Prediction for next year:

Offense makes strong improvements due to following factors...

• Gordon and Butler rebound
• Hosmer continues to hit for the entire season the way he did from June 1 on
• Better production out of leadoff spot (Gordon produced just a .320 OBP in that spot)
• Fewer holes in the lineup

This offsets a small step back in the starting pitching from the No. 2 spot (2013 Santana vs. 2014 Vargas). Vargas performs at slightly better than his career averages, pitching in KC and with that defense behind him, to post a 3.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Both numbers trump Santana, who has a fall-back year for the team that signs him. Shields and Guthrie are themselves.

The starting pitching also is improved at the 4 and 5 spots, with one of the young pitchers (Duffy, Ventura or Zimmer) providing a major upgrade over what was received out of those spots in 2013.

Overall: I'll call 91-71. It's aggressive, but I think the offense has improved more than many think and I think the starting pitching takes a smaller step back than many think.

[Saul Good]

I want to know how much production we get from 3b, SS, and 2b. It has to get better, right? Right?

[bsp4444]

Two positive predictions from two of my favorite Royals posters. I, too, think the offense will rebound and the pitching will not suffer too badly. I wonder how much better the Indians will be, though...