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Old 11-12-2012, 10:58 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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IEA says US soon to become world's biggest oil producer. Very soon.

To follow up on jiveturkey's thread, here's an expansion of the issue.

Now you can see why Romney ran on the platform of total energy independence during his administration. Had he won re-election and served as President through 2020, we would have become the greatest oil produceer on earth on his watch. As it stands now, we're set to do that by either the end of Obama's second term or the middle of Hillary Clinton's first term (c'mon, I had to say that.)

Combine this with Obama's investments in alternative energy, and both candidates' willingness to utilize natural gas, and I think it's very likely this country becomes energy independent by 2020.

Crazy to think about.

What are the odds this reduces oil prices? Anybody know? Donger?

http://www.latimes.com/business/mone...,6181922.story

U.S. to become world's largest oil producer before 2020, IEA says
By Tiffany Hsu
November 12, 2012, 9:20 a.m.

The U.S. will become the world’s top producer of oil within five years, a net exporter of the fuel around 2030 and nearly self-sufficient in energy by 2035, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

It’s a bold set of predictions for a nation that currently imports some 20% of its energy needs.

Recently, however, an “energy renaissance” in the U.S. has caused a boost in oil, shale gas and bio-energy production due to new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. Fuel efficiency has improved in the transportation sector. The clean energy industry has seen an influx of solar and wind efforts.

By 2015, U.S. oil production is expected to rise to 10 million barrels per day before increasing to 11.1 million bpd by 2020, overtaking second-place Russia and front-runner Saudi Arabia. The U.S. will export more oil than it brings into the country in 2030.

Around the same time, however, Saudi Arabia will be producing some 11.4 million bpd of oil, outpacing the 10.2 million from the U.S. In 2035, U.S. production will slip to 9.2 million bpd, far behind the Middle Eastern nation’s 12.3 million bpd. Iraq will exceed Russia to become the world’s second largest oil exporter.

At that point, real oil prices will reach $125 a barrel. By then, however, the U.S. won’t be relying much on foreign energy, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook.

Globally, the energy economy will undergo a “sea change,” according to the report, with nearly 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports redirecting toward Asia.

“No country is an energy ‘island,’ and the interactions between different fuels, markets and prices are intensifying,” according to the report.

And what of energy efficiency efforts?

Fossil fuels, which enjoyed a 30% jump in subsidies last year to $523 billion worldwide, will still surpass renewable energy sources, according to IEA. But so-called green power will become the world’s second-largest form of generation within three years and will threaten coal’s supremacy by 2035.

That progression, however, “hinges critically on continued subsidies” for wind, solar and bio-fuel technologies, which last year amounted to some $88 billion and needs to reach $4.8 trillion through 2035, according to IEA.

Even then, however, “the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path,” according to the report.

Global energy demand will boom by more than a third by 2035, rising to 99.7 million barrels a day from 87.4 million last year. China’s demand will rise 60% over the period; India’s will more than double. Demand in developed countries will increase just 3%, with the desire for oil and coal losing share in the overall energy mix.

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will creep up, causing a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 degrees Celsius, or 38.48 degrees Fahrenheit. Energy production will continue to suck at the world’s water resources – it already accounts for 15% of total water use.
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:02 AM   #2
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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From the report's executive summary:

Quote:
The tide turns for US energy flows

Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well
beyond North America – and the energy sector. The recent rebound in US oil and gas
production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale
gas resources, is spurring economic activity – with less expensive gas and electricity prices
giving industry a competitive edge – and steadily changing the role of North America in
global energy trade. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest
global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the
impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. The result is a continued fall in US oil
imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030. This
accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus
on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. The
United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all
but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy
importing countries.
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:34 AM   #3
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Were it not for high oil prices, they wouldn't be doing this. If oil prices went down to any significant degree, they'll cap those wells and let them sit, just like they did in the 80s and 90s.
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:36 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock View Post
Were it not for high oil prices, they wouldn't be doing this. If oil prices went down to any significant degree, they'll cap those wells and let them sit, just like they did in the 80s and 90s.
Are you against that?
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:10 PM   #5
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I give the lion's share of any credit due to the government to this man and his much maligned energy task force:

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Old 11-12-2012, 12:11 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
To follow up on jiveturkey's thread, here's an expansion of the issue.

Now you can see why Romney ran on the platform of total energy independence during his administration. Had he won re-election and served as President through 2020, we would have become the greatest oil produceer on earth on his watch. As it stands now, we're set to do that by either the end of Obama's second term or the middle of Hillary Clinton's first term (c'mon, I had to say that.)

Combine this with Obama's investments in alternative energy, and both candidates' willingness to utilize natural gas, and I think it's very likely this country becomes energy independent by 2020.

Crazy to think about.

What are the odds this reduces oil prices? Anybody know? Donger?
With or without a carbon tax established by the President and his party?
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:35 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
With or without a carbon tax established by the President and his party?
That is what Rumsfeld would call a known unknown.

I think we both know a carbon tax is unlikely.
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:57 PM   #8
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If ONLY there were a pipeline to transport any of this alleged exported crude to the gulf to be shipped to buyers.............
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:57 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
That is what Rumsfeld would call a known unknown.

I think we both know a carbon tax is unlikely.
Bold assumption. Why is it unlikely? Would you rule out gasoline or diesel having new taxes placed? Pressure on infrastructure costs seem to point to a new or increased tax level at both federal and state levels
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Old 11-12-2012, 01:07 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
If ONLY there were a pipeline to transport any of this alleged exported crude to the gulf to be shipped to buyers.............
And if we just had a way to refine it
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