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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%
Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:15 PM   #1411
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:16 PM   #1412
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NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:16 PM   #1413
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So he called 50 out of 51 in 2008.

He'll be somewhere between 49/51 to 51/51 in 2012.

This suggest that the uncertainties that he assigns to each state race are too large at least in the final days of the race. Given the odds of each race, he should have missed more of them if the odds were correct.

In other words, when he says 20% chance of rain, it really rains only about 5% of the time.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:18 PM   #1414
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NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out
It's just arithmetic
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:27 PM   #1415
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:28 PM   #1416
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:29 PM   #1417
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Interesting, this website no longer exists.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:53 PM   #1418
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:54 PM   #1419
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:54 PM   #1420
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Sorry, Dude. Keep your head up.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:54 PM   #1421
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:02 AM   #1422
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Romney has to have Florida and Virgina.
Prophetic words....eat it, GOP-ers.

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yeah, that silver guy don't know shit...

romney won...

That's the BEST part of this....douche-bag ideologues who think they can out-smart intellectuals who stick to the facts. Heh.

Eat it, RWNJs....

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Hoover is a good guy. He just let his partisan views cloud his judgment on the Iowa turnout. We all get like that at times.

Agreed.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:03 AM   #1423
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So he called 50 out of 51 in 2008.

He'll be somewhere between 49/51 to 51/51 in 2012.

This suggest that the uncertainties that he assigns to each state race are too large at least in the final days of the race. Given the odds of each race, he should have missed more of them if the odds were correct.

In other words, when he says 20% chance of rain, it really rains only about 5% of the time.
yeah, if there's a flaw in the model, it might be that he is too modest. I do respect his desire to reflect the possibility of a systematic bias, but now with the 2012 results we have a lot more data points arguing that systematic bias is less likely.
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:22 AM   #1424
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:22 AM   #1425
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