New Apple Tablet

[dirk digler]

Cool stuff. On Engadget live right now

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/l...est&refresh=30

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

So why is Netflix kicking their ass, then?



I don't think it is more wishful thinking than you making an assertion than Android will take over the tablet market. People have been predicting that iPods would be taken over... Didn't happen. Same with the demise of the iPhone.

We don't know what will happen in the future, but it is entirely possible. I will readily admit that I hope it happens, though.

Netflix is beating Blockbuster because Blockbuster came into the online and direct by mail game WAY WAY too late. That doesn't mean that their product is inferior NOW. Either way, this argument is silly, I don't really care for either and Netflix is about to be offered on Android.. so it's not something that affects the overall argument.

My tablet predicitions are based on current trends and logic not just wishful thinking...

I never predicting anything regarding ipod... but quite a few of us did make a prediction regarding Android vs iPhone and guess what, it came true.. Android is 29% of the smartphone market and growing at a substantially faster rate of market share than iPhone.

The iOS will not get completely marginalized like MACs (5-10%) but it will be somewhere in the 10-15% range. (20% if they get lucky) Most likely by 2014.

[Silock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Me and hundred of analysts... are making these predictions...

I never predicting anything regarding ipod... but quite a few of us did make a prediction regarding Android vs iPhone and guess what, it came true.. Android is 29% of the smartphone market and growing at a substantially faster rate of market share than iPhone.

The iPhone and iPad will not get completely marginalized like MACs (5-10%) but it will be somewhere in the 10-15% range. Most likely by 2015.

We will see if it can sustain that growth, though. And just because its marketshare is growing faster doesn't mean that it will necessarily completely take over. I wonder if it will hit some kind of market saturation barrier.

On a side note, this article compares Netflix and BB. I can't find more up to date info on a comparison... Is there outdated info about BB in this article, or is it still true? Because it seems very limited by comparison.

http://www.fastcompany.com/1685179/a...vs-blockbuster

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

We will see if it can sustain that growth, though. And just because its marketshare is growing faster doesn't mean that it will necessarily completely take over. I wonder if it will hit some kind of market saturation barrier.

I don't see any reason it would hit a market saturation barrier any more than Windows vs Mac... yes there will probably be a 10-15% market share that sticks with iOS either because they are Apple fanboys or because they are easily confused by better hardware and OS at a cheaper cost...

Here is my view of the future in this space...

iPods will fade away (except maybe the tiny workout models) as everyone moves to smartphones.

For smartphones, Android will get up to around 50% market share with RIM at 15%(or RIM's highly customized version of Android.. something they may move to) and Windows at 15% with iOS at 15%.. 5% for a MISC category.. (like WebOS)

For tablets it will basically be the same as above except swap WebOS and RIM. The only way I see this being WAY off is if Windows finally gets its shit together... so again, not likely.

These are numbers I just pulled out of my ass, so I reserve the right to adjust these down the road... but you get the general idea of where I see the market heading.

[Fish]

For all the iPad shortcomings listed somewhere in the 1000+ posts here... Apple still rules the tablet market at close to 80%. Android is climbing, and that's a good thing. But with Apple's present market domination, it's going to roll over into considerable iPad2 sales. Familiarity will be a buying factor. I think most people will overlook the hardware differences. Most people have no clue about differences in Adroid OS versions and telling them that Honeycomb is going to be better won't mean shit to the average tablet buyer. iPad has been marketed down our throats. Xoom's Android tablet OS hasn't really been sold to the people at all.

But right now, Apple will sell plenty of iPad2 tablets for reasons listed above, while Android devices struggle to keep up. Thinner, prettier design and consistent user interface will outweigh hardware differences for enough people to sell millions of units..

Yeah for diversity, but Apple's marketing will ensure sales of iPad2 to market capacity. Android devices will slowly catch up and drive prices down while doing so. Which is good for both.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

For all the iPad shortcomings listed somewhere in the 1000+ posts here... Apple still rules the tablet market at close to 80%. Android is climbing, and that's a good thing. But with Apple's present market domination, it's going to roll over into considerable iPad2 sales. Familiarity will be a buying factor. I think most people will overlook the hardware differences. Most people have no clue about differences in Adroid OS versions and telling them that Honeycomb is going to be better won't mean shit to the average tablet buyer. iPad has been marketed down our throats. Xoom's Android tablet OS hasn't really been sold to the people at all.

But right now, Apple will sell plenty of iPad2 tablets for reasons listed above, while Android devices struggle to keep up. Thinner, prettier design and consistent user interface will outweigh hardware differences for enough people to sell millions of units..

Yeah for diversity, but Apple's marketing will ensure sales of iPad2 to market capacity. Android devices will slowly catch up and drive prices down while doing so. Which is good for both.

Android hasn't had a usable tablet OS on the market until last week. So, yes, of course the iPad 2 will sell well. The Xoom is overpriced and even when the $530 version comes out in April... it still won't be enough to change the market drastically overnight... but the change will come.

Let's look at the iPhone vs Android phones... the first "real" Android OS came out in April 2009.. that's less than 2 years ago... The iPhone had almost a full 2 year head start. Android has now passed iOS and is on the road to dominance.

The same will happen with tablets and probably even faster... Since Android's first tablet OS is only a week old.. I imagine that it will take a full year to 18 months to catch up in terms of market share.

THAT SAID, Android Tablets will be the far better product starting about two months from now... as old iPads wear out and get outdated... you'll see a number of users switching over, but the significant gains will be in new users to the tablet space... especially ones who are waiting for more affordable options.

In summary, yes iPad has a head start and will maintain a lead in overall market share for awhile... but starting around Christmas I expect NEW tablets sales to shift in favor of Android based units... then it's just a matter of time.

P.S. Apple has an even higher share than 80% if you are talking "true" tablets and not bastard netvertible tablets like mine.

[Silock]

Android also came out on just about every carrier, as opposed to one for the iPhone.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

Android also came out on just about every carrier, as opposed to one for the iPhone.

And the same will happen regarding tablet manufacturers and 3G/4G carriers...

Look at BestBuy and the amount of floorspace for different PC manufacturers vs the tiny corner with Macs... expect the same for tablets.

[Silock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

And the same will happen regarding tablet manufacturers and 3G/4G carriers...

Look at BestBuy and the amount of floorspace for different PC manufacturers vs the tiny corner with Macs... expect the same for tablets.

Mmm, perhaps. I see a few differences, though.

For one, more people are shopping online now, so I'm not sure how important retail floor space is.

Second, many, many people still associate tablets with the iPad, sort of like all tissues are Kleenex.

Finally, Android tablets aren't marketed with 5% of the skill that Apple markets its products.

[AustinChief]

Not to get too far off topic.. but THIS is the next big thing in tablets/cell phones...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality

Gonna be some cool stuff coming out in a few years

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

Mmm, perhaps. I see a few differences, though.

For one, more people are shopping online now, so I'm not sure how important retail floor space is.

Second, many, many people still associate tablets with the iPad, sort of like all tissues are Kleenex.

Finally, Android tablets aren't marketed with 5% of the skill that Apple markets its products.

The floor space was just to show that more hardware choices makes a difference.

Yes, for NOW tablets are associated with the iPad.. that will change... it's already starting to.

Apple will need that marketing expertise to stay viable AT ALL.. which they will (to the tune of 10-15% share)

Lastly, better products at cheaper prices will win out... and Apple will not fit that bill... hell, they had a massive head start and yet Android already has a better OS that will only get better. But REALLY its the prices that will determine the market. The first wave of QUALITY $300 tablets will mark the major shift...I seriously doubt those will come from Apple.

[Silock]

I think you and Apple have different definitions of "viable." They probably consider "viable" as making a shitload of money, regardless of actual marketshare.

I hope iOS5 brings something great, because otherwise, I might have to seriously consider moving to an Android tablet. But I disagree with the better products at cheaper prices winning out. That was never true with better and cheaper MP3 players, so I don't know if it will hold true for other areas where Apple has since entered the arena.

[CrazyPhuD]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Not to get too far off topic.. but THIS is the next big thing in tablets/cell phones...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality

Gonna be some cool stuff coming out in a few years

Nah not really. See that's out and has been out so everyone knows about it. The next BIG thing will likely be something you no idea about right now. That's the nature of how these things work.

[eazyb81]

Originally Posted by Silock

Android also came out on just about every carrier, as opposed to one for the iPhone.

This is a key point and he generally disregards it.

Apple will sell 9-10M incremental Verizon iPhones in 2011, surpassing Android market share within the Verizon smartphone segment. However, Verizon will still not surpass 15% of the global smartphone segment by the end of 2011 even with the addition of iPhone (+50% YOY).

Austin's iPhone vs. Android argument is not on an apples to apples basis simply because Apple's lucrative exclusive contracts with AT&T and now Verizon somewhat limits full market saturation.

[The Rick]

A very well done editorial. I think it highlights the very debate we see in this thread and beyond.

In this thread, we see the Xoom guys talking about CPU speed, RAM, 4G, etc., while the Apple guys don't really seem to care. The point is, Apple has simply moved on from that debate. They've left the room. Right or wrong, in their eyes, it's about user experience and not about flashy specs. Up to this point, they've been 100% right.

Editorial: It's Apple's 'post-PC' world -- we're all just living in it
By Joshua Topolsky
posted Mar 3rd 2011 7:56PM

On Wednesday, Apple introduced the world to the iPad 2. A beautiful device, to be sure. Feature packed? You bet. Soon to be selling like hotcakes? Absolutely. But the introduction of an iteration on an already existing product wasn't the most notable piece of the event, nor was the surprise appearance of Steve Jobs. No, Wednesday's event was significant because it introduced the world to Apple's real vision for the foreseeable future, a theme the company has hinted at but never fully expressed. This week, Apple showed everyone where it was headed, challenged competitors on that direction, and made it clear that the company not only has staked a claim in that space, but is defining it.

This week, Apple stepped into the "post-PC" era of computing -- and there's no looking back, at least not for the folks in Cupertino.

By joining the company's ongoing vision of a "different" kind of computing with a soundbite friendly piece of marketing-speak, Apple has changed the rules of the game, and made the competition's efforts not just an uphill battle, but -- at least in the eyes of Steve Jobs and co. -- essentially moot. But what exactly is the "post-PC" world? And why is it significant? Let me explain.

In this new world, Apple no longer has to compete on specs and features, nor does it want to. There is no Mac vs. PC here -- only "the future" versus "the past." It won't be a debate about displays, memory, wireless options -- it will be a debate about the quality of the experience. Apple is not just eschewing the spec conversation in favor of a different conversation -- it's rendering those former conversations useless. It would be like trying to compare a race car to a deeply satisfying book. In a post-PC world, the experience of the product is central and significant above all else. It's not the RAM or CPU speed, screen resolution or number of ports which dictate whether a product is valuable; it becomes purely about the experience of using the device. What that means is that while Motorola and Verizon will spend millions of dollars advertising the Xoom's 4G upgrade options, CPU speed, and high-resolution cameras, Apple need only delight consumers and tell them that specs and and speed are the domain of a dinosaur called the PC. Apple isn't claiming victory in the Space Race -- it's ceding space to the competition.

But guess who gets Earth all to itself? Apple's not saying that it beats other tablets on the market. It's saying "we do one thing, and these guys do something else altogether." They're not competition -- they're not even playing the same game!

That's not to say Apple has given up on PCs, and in fact, the company's laptop sales are consistently exceeding expectations. But take a look at what's creeping around the corner. There's Lion, with its iOS-like interface, its simplified experience. If Apple has its way, and if the sales of its mobile devices carry on in the manner they have up until now, a post-PC outlook will even fit devices that look alarmingly like... PCs.

But right now -- in the tablet space at least -- the problem for Motorola, Samsung, HP, RIM, and anyone else who is challenging Apple becomes infinitely more difficult. Almost any company could put together a more powerful or spec-heavy tablet, but all the horsepower in the world can't help you if you don't find a way to delight the average consumer. Those other tablet makers may have superior hardware (and in the case of the Xoom, some superior software as well), but without that key component of sheer delight, the road for them is long and hard. HP is getting close by touting features like Touch-to-Share, but against experiences like the new GarageBand for iOS and the 65,000 apps (and counting) that currently exist, it's hard to see a clear path to sizable competition. That goes for Google and RIM as well.

What Apple has done by introducing its "post-PC" language into the vernacular is almost more a game of semantics. Now when Motorola boasts the brain-crushing, bone-splitting power of the Xoom, the company could easily come off like the guy who buys the red Ferrari because he has something to prove.

Apple isn't just challenging perceptions of the PC -- they're saying that the age of the PC is over (at least for most people). The company is forcing consumers to ask if they even still want or need something called a PC (while of course making sure to point out that the competition is playing the same old game). And really, that's all part of the plan. Apple is in the process of making the iPad the de-facto standard for what the next stage of computing looks like, from the look and feel to the kind of software and experiences you have on the device. Apple doesn't just want to own the market -- it wants to own the idea of the market. We've seen this act before, and we know how it ends.

There was a time before the iPod too, when companies like HP, Samsung, and even Microsoft fought against Apple for the hearts and minds of the consumer -- but I'll be damned if anyone can remember it.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/03/e...l-just-living/

[Saulbadguy]

It also has quite a bit to do with branding.