Who's your guy in the 4th quarter when losing to an above .500 team: Alex or Aa

[Discuss Thrower]

I pulled this link off of Reddit thinking this would be a great source of friendly banter and enlightened discussion. Who's more clutch in a comeback against winning teams? You want Captain Checkdown II- Electric Boogaloo or you want the Discount Double Check guy?

Spoiler!

Here are the numbers:


http://http://www.coldhardfootballfa...chedule/18941/

DISCUS.

[Hammock Parties]

10 in 7 years?

Stud.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

10 in 7 years?

Stud.

Percentages.

[Hammock Parties]

Pretty sure some of his amazing "comebacks" feature his team scoring less than 20 points.

Basically his defense kept the game close and he finally put up a few points by the end of the game.

It's the old Jake Plummer fraud. Suck ass for 3 quarters, pull it out in the 4th, get lauded for your amazing comebacks!

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

Pretty sure some of his amazing "comebacks" feature his team scoring less than 20 points.

Basically his defense kept the game close and he finally put up a few points by the end of the game.

It's the old Jake Plummer fraud. Suck ass for 3 quarters, pull it out in the 4th, get lauded for your amazing comebacks!

Winning is winning C.E.

The guy set a 49'ers team record for 4th quarter comebacks in a season in 2011, and that team has had a couple of pretty decent QB's on their roster over the years.

Smith is better than people around here think and he'll finally get his chance with Reid here in Kansas City to prove that he's his own man. The poor bastard was saddled with some of the worst head coaches and offensive coordinators in recent NFL history and he showed he was a pretty capable QB when he finally experienced some stability and competency at the HC spot.

Both Reid and Smith are going to re-emerge here in KC. Both needed a change of scenery and they will be better for it in coming here. The coaching staff was well thought out and Dorsey seems to be a pretty good fit so far as GM. Pressure is off these guys as KC was the worst in the league last year, but there is talent on the team to exceed expectations.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a Kurt Warner at Arizona type of run out of Smith and Reid here over the next couple of years. They pieces are in place for such a situation IMO.

[Hammock Parties]

The idea he can bring a team from behind is really flawed. Just check out my sig.

[mdchiefsfan]

[Predarat]

As long as he is better the Elvis Grbac im OK.

[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

Pretty sure some of his amazing "comebacks" feature his team scoring less than 20 points.

Basically his defense kept the game close and he finally put up a few points by the end of the game.

It's the old Jake Plummer fraud. Suck ass for 3 quarters, pull it out in the 4th, get lauded for your amazing comebacks!

That same defense that allowed ~30 pts/game in the playoffs under Kaep....

You don't seem to understand that one of the reasons why the 49er defense was so good is because ASmith kept them off the field. Kaep is a homerun hitter; ASmith is a surgical striker.

[DanT]

Interesting topic heading post. Thanks for posting this, Discuss Thrower.

In data through Week 9 of 2012, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers had 25 opportunities for a 4th quarter comeback during their career. Smith was successful in 10 of those, while Rodgers was successful in 4.

For statistical significance testing of these data as presented, we would have to assume that the game results from the same QB are uncorrelated, which isn't quite right. But our results based on that assumption probably won't be too much different from what we would get if didn't have to make that assumption. In order to do the fancier analysis, we would need access to such information as how the QBs did in specific seasons (assuming that the probability of a given QB being successful varies from one season to the next as the QB matures and as each year's team gets better or worse).

Nevertheless, the Chi-square p-value for the difference in success proportions (computed by me, in Stata) is 0.059. This is not quite statistically significant at the conventional p < 0.050 threshold, so we wouldn't be able to claim that the differences we've seen so far in games reflect true differences in these QBs underlying probability of being successful. The plausible values for the true underlying difference (Smith minus Rodgers) in success probabilites that would be consistent with these data range from Rodgers being just barely better to Smith being a lot better (95% CI for difference in success proportion = -0.0001 to 0.49 ).

In the 17 opportunities against opponents with 0.500+ records that each QB coincidentally had, Smith was successful in 7 of those (41%), while Rodgers was never successful (0%).

[Mav]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith HATER

The idea he can bring a team from behind is really flawed. Just check out my sig.

No. What is flawed, is your refusal to consider all variables when babbling. How many of those were before harbaugh? That's all that really matters to be honest. Your very premise that Alex Smith sucks, is all pre harbaugh, and you want to act like his time with Harbaugh never happened.

[mcaj22]

must be easy to put on a 4th quarter drive knowing you have a defense that didnt surrender a 100 yard rusher or a rushing touchdown the whole ****ing year

you get a few mulligans knowing your defense can bail you out

[mdchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by DanT

Interesting topic heading post. Thanks for posting this, Discuss Thrower.

In data through Week 9 of 2012, both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers had 25 opportunities for a 4th quarter comeback during their career. Smith was successful in 10 of those, while Rodgers was successful in 4.

For statistical significance testing of these data as presented, we would have to assume that the game results from the same QB are uncorrelated, which isn't quite right. But our results based on that assumption probably won't be too much different from what we would get if didn't have to make that assumption. In order to do the fancier analysis, we would need access to such information as how the QBs did in specific seasons (assuming that the probability of a given QB being successful varies from one season to the next as the QB matures and as each year's team gets better or worse).

Nevertheless, the Chi-square p-value for the difference in success proportions (computed by me, in Stata) is 0.059. This is not quite statistically significant at the conventional p < 0.050 threshold, so we wouldn't be able to claim that the differences we've seen so far in games reflect true differences in these QBs underlying probability of being successful. The plausible values for the true underlying difference (Smith minus Rodgers) in success probabilites that would be consistent with these data range from Rodgers being just barely better to Smith being a lot better (95% CI for difference in success proportion = -0.0001 to 0.49 ).

In the 17 opportunities against opponents with 0.500+ records that each QB coincidentally had, Smith was successful in 7 of those (41%), while Rodgers was never successful (0%).

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

That same defense that allowed ~30 pts/game in the playoffs under Kaep....

You don't seem to understand that one of the reasons why the 49er defense was so good is because ASmith kept them off the field. Kaep is a homerun hitter; ASmith is a surgical striker.

I remember when Herm trotted out this stupid line of bullshit about the Chiefs defense in 2006.

"The offense scored too fast!! The defense was bad because the offense was good!!"

The offense scoring makes it easier on a defense because it makes the other team more predictable.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by mcaj22

must be easy to put on a 4th quarter drive knowing you have a defense that didnt surrender a 100 yard rusher or a rushing touchdown the whole ****ing year

you get a few mulligans knowing your defense can bail you out

Both of those are incorrect. They actually allowed 3 rushing touchdowns. One to the rams back up, back up qb, and lost their 100 yard rushing streak to Marshawn Lynch.

Which, also goes back to the way that Alex Smith, and the inept offense were able to control the clock, and the ball, and not turn it over, keeping the opposing team off the field. But hey, I just supply facts, you just continue on down your grumpy road to ass hole ville.