Royals (New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository - Page 116

duncan_idaho · 08-15-2013, 08:13 AM

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

duncan_idaho · 10-01-2013, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HemiEd

I hope like heck that they can get Santana signed. It would mean a lot and further signify their commitment to get away from the Wal-Mart approach.

If they're going to be playing in that financial stratosphere on a FA pitcher, I'd almost rather see them chase Garza.

He and Santana will likely get similar deals on the open market, but I'd honestly feel more confident about 4 years/$60 million for Garza than 4/$50 for Santana.

Santana is just so up-and-down... I know what the perception would be in KC, but there are good baseball reasons to be leery of having him a lucrative 4-5 year deal.

KevB · 10-01-2013, 01:57 PM

Assuming we all agree that we need to replace Santana's innings as well as upgrade the offense, here's the question : Are we more likely to fix the pitching or the hitting with internal solutions? We have finite resources, and my guess is that we aren't going to invest materially in both.

I think we're more likely to replace Santana with an internal option than to improve our hitting. So my vote is that we go find an upgrade offensively out on the market, and rely on our young pitching to bridge the Santana gap.

**alnorth** · 10-01-2013, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HemiEd

I hope like heck that they can get Santana signed. It would mean a lot and further signify their commitment to get away from the Wal-Mart approach.

He's not just a run of the mill good FA pitcher. Because there are no extremely good high-end pitchers available this time like Greinke, Ervin Santana will probably be the premier free agent pitcher of the offseason. At worst, he might be #2.

The lack of supply is going to drive the demand on him up crazy, he's probably going to be offered a lot more than he's really worth.

**alnorth** · 10-01-2013, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KevB

Assuming we all agree that we need to replace Santana's innings as well as upgrade the offense, here's the question : Are we more likely to fix the pitching or the hitting with internal solutions? We have finite resources, and my guess is that we aren't going to invest materially in both.

I think we're more likely to replace Santana with an internal option than to improve our hitting. So my vote is that we go find an upgrade offensively out on the market, and rely on our young pitching to bridge the Santana gap.

This is where I'm at, too. We should probably sign somebody in case our internal pitching options don't work, but the bulk of our available resources needs to be spent on a bat.

**gblowfish** · 10-01-2013, 02:02 PM

Santana seems like a "contract year" performer. You only get his best when he's got a new contract pending. Danny Tartabull was the exact same way in his career.

**alnorth** · 10-01-2013, 02:10 PM

If anyone wants to hope for a return of Santana, we're obviously going to make him a qualifying offer, and that is going to depress his value a bit. Some team out there might say "screw it" and give him $16-17MM AAV anyway over 4 or 5 years, but if people are leery of losing a draft pick, his value could come down to the point where we re-sign him.

**Saul Good** · 10-01-2013, 02:16 PM

Find another extreme fly ball pitcher who gave up a fluke amount of HRs in a bandbox, and sign him.

duncan_idaho · 10-01-2013, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alnorth

If anyone wants to hope for a return of Santana, we're obviously going to make him a qualifying offer, and that is going to depress his value a bit. Some team out there might say "screw it" and give him $16-17MM AAV anyway over 4 or 5 years, but if people are leery of losing a draft pick, his value could come down to the point where we re-sign him.

He also might accept the qualifying offer, if the market is not looking great for him, and put off the big FA push for one more year (like what Edwin Jackson did before 2012).

I would be fine with him accepting that. It's a one-year commitment at a lot of money, but at least it's not a long-term risk. If he can't repeat, it hurts for 2014 but not for years to come.

I have been told Moore said they don't expect the budget to increase for 2014? Anyone else heard/seen that?

duncan_idaho · 10-01-2013, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Find another extreme fly ball pitcher who gave up a fluke amount of HRs in a bandbox, and sign him.

cough, cough...

eazyb81 · 10-01-2013, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Find another extreme fly ball pitcher who gave up a fluke amount of HRs in a bandbox, and sign him.

Exactly.

It is hilarious reading about how great Santana is now, when people were saying the complete opposite when we acquired him.

CaliforniaChief · 10-01-2013, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He also might accept the qualifying offer, if the market is not looking great for him, and put off the big FA push for one more year (like what Edwin Jackson did before 2012).

I would be fine with him accepting that. It's a one-year commitment at a lot of money, but at least it's not a long-term risk. If he can't repeat, it hurts for 2014 but not for years to come.

I have been told Moore said they don't expect the budget to increase for 2014? Anyone else heard/seen that?

Yeah, he said it. But there was stuff like that out last year, and it increased. I won't get upset until it doesn't happen.

Pasta Little Brioni · 10-01-2013, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -King-

Best record in 2.5 decades and best 2nd half record in the league this year. He should be fired.
Posted via Mobile Device

Typical baseball fans

**SAUTO** · 10-01-2013, 04:22 PM

Isn't josh Johnson needing surgery?
Posted via Mobile Device

duncan_idaho · 10-01-2013, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

Isn't josh Johnson needing surgery?
Posted via Mobile Device

He had surgery this week to clean up bone spurs in his elbow. Pretty routine, though anything with that guy of late is cause for concern.

I don't want to try to sign the guy long-term or anything... but it would be a smart risk to get a guy on a short-term deal, IMO.

He gets to try to rehab his profile in a great pitcher's park with a great defense behind him and a great catcher calling games for him.

Royals get him at a much-reduced price and maybe get a year (or two, if there's an option) of a guy whose upside is that of a borderline staff ace.

KevB · 10-01-2013, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

He gets to try to rehab his profile in a great pitcher's park with a great defense behind him and a great catcher calling games for him.

This is a key point if we end up out in the market attempting to sign a free agent pitcher. In year's past, we'd be at the very bottom of the list of teams that free agents would have interest. We actually have something to sell now, and that wasn't the case even this time last year.

08-15-2013, 08:13 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1780308	(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository New thread, this time with more burst. Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?
Posts: 21,077

10-01-2013, 01:57 PM	#1727
KevB Agree to Disagree Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: The State of Euphoria Casino cash: $10026612	Assuming we all agree that we need to replace Santana's innings as well as upgrade the offense, here's the question : Are we more likely to fix the pitching or the hitting with internal solutions? We have finite resources, and my guess is that we aren't going to invest materially in both. I think we're more likely to replace Santana with an internal option than to improve our hitting. So my vote is that we go find an upgrade offensively out on the market, and rely on our young pitching to bridge the Santana gap.
Posts: 14,446

10-01-2013, 02:02 PM	#1730
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $17686178 VARSITY	Santana seems like a "contract year" performer. You only get his best when he's got a new contract pending. Danny Tartabull was the exact same way in his career.
Posts: 40,830

10-01-2013, 02:10 PM	#1731
alnorth . Join Date: Dec 2002 Casino cash: $57176239	If anyone wants to hope for a return of Santana, we're obviously going to make him a qualifying offer, and that is going to depress his value a bit. Some team out there might say "screw it" and give him $16-17MM AAV anyway over 4 or 5 years, but if people are leery of losing a draft pick, his value could come down to the point where we re-sign him. __________________ how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb? HOW MANY?! none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 36,130

10-01-2013, 02:16 PM	#1732
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	Find another extreme fly ball pitcher who gave up a fluke amount of HRs in a bandbox, and sign him. __________________ Today is not a good day to be a pussy.
Posts: 41,870

10-01-2013, 04:22 PM	#1738
SAUTO Shit Join Date: Jun 2008 Casino cash: $10039067	Isn't josh Johnson needing surgery? Posted via Mobile Device
Posts: 55,715