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Old 05-12-2017, 09:46 PM  
Easy 6 Easy 6 is offline
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All alex all the time

Quote:
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
I'd like to get those two really rolling together like Atlanta uses Freeman and Coleman. Just a couple of well balanced runners who run hard as hell and can catch the ball.

This team is going to need a top notch run game to make an AFC Championship under Alex Smith in 2017, along with a top notch defense. Now, if Mahomes becomes as good as many including myself think he could be, it's a whole new level for the Chiefs. The offense could become something it hasn't been in nearly 15 years.
I honestly dont see our guys being quite as dynamic as Atlantas duo

But what our guys lack in explosiveness, they should be be able to make up for with with a grinding, wear you down, kill the clock style... provided Ehingers return is the cure for what ailed us last year

What Alex Smith brings this year, I have no clue... tempted to expect the same old shit because thats how he has mostly played for his entire career

But maybe, just maybe, the writing on the wall spurs him to reach outside of himself and he tries to MAKE plays for once... 'good' Smiff can approach dynamic, we'll see

The pressure will either make him wilt, or make him show off

If he decides to grab his balls, we could have a great year
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:23 AM   #16
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
A lot of the financial decisions all come back to what happens at QB. If they feel like they can move on from Smith, they could cut him, Hali, Jah Reid, and Demetrius Harris and have $21.6M in cap space (according to OTC). If you add DJ into that, the number jumps to almost $30M, and you'd still have Maclin and Bailey on the roster. That would be enough cap room to make whatever moves/extensions they might want.
Those figures don't represent the in the Dead Cap Space.

Projected Cuts for 2018:

Maclin: $8.6m in Cap Space, $4.8 in Dead Money = net savings of $3.8 million
Bailey: $6m in CS, $2 in DM = net savings of $4 m
Hali: $7m in CS, $1.54 in DM = net savings of $5.4 m
Reid: $3.2m in Cap Space, $775k DM = net savings of $2.425 m
Harris: $2m in Cap Space, $1.8m in DM = net savings of $1.8 m
DJ: $8m in Cap Space, $2.25 in DM = net savings of $5.75 m

That's a total savings of $17,441,666, all for players that are at the end of their careers or fairly easy to replace.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
On the flip side, if they feel like they have to keep Alex for 2018, I would hope they can get him to take somewhat of a pay cut. Assuming he would make what he is scheduled to make, and cutting Maclin, Bailey, DJ, Hali, Reid, and Harris would put them at around $27M in cap room. Either scenario presents a lot of veterans being released, but the first one is more likely IMO as they have their biggest investment waiting in the wings behind Smith.
Once again, the numbers are incorrect. Also, cutting Alex Smith nets only a $13.4 million in cap savings. If he starts the first half of the season or if Mahomes is injured as a starter and/or struggles in 2018, do you really believe that Clark Hunt, Andy Reid and John Dorsey are going to turn their team over to Tyler Bray or Joel Stave?

And if they wanted a "cheap" backup that knows the system, why didn't they just hang on to Nick Foles or sign Chase Daniel after the Eagles cut him loose?

I just don't see any scenario in which Smith isn't a Chief in 2018, unless he's injured in 2017 and Mahomes plays like Dak Prescott. While that would be the "ideal" scenario, I don't think it's very likely.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
JMO, but I think Maclin bounces back this year. Not necessarily a 1000 yards, as that will be tough to get with Kelce and Hill around and Alex at QB, but I think he will be a threat.
Agree to disagree about Maclin but I can't see the Chiefs paying a 30 year old WR on the downside of his career $13.4 million in 2018. That just doesn't make any sense.
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:23 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Your expectations are unrealistic, IMO.

Mahomes is just 21 years old. He's a true junior. He has so much to learn that it would be shock if he's on the field before mid-2018 at the earliest. 2019 is the target.

The Chiefs are, rightfully so, looking at the next 10 years plus, not 2017 or 2018. 2018 will be a rebuilding year of sorts as is, with DJ, Hali, Maclin and Bailey unlikely to return. The absence of a first round pick won't help the process, either.

Alex Smith will most likely fulfill his contract. Does anyone want Travis Kelce as the veteran leader of the offense?
I just disagree, dude... based on the widely reported intelligence and drive this kid has, he can reach a workable level of proficiency in the year and half he has IMO

Like RunKC says, thats two full offseasons and two full camps plus preseason play

Then theres the cap savings that Pugs mentions, between Smith and a few others contracts we could have plenty of dough to go sign some premier free agents

I could be wrong, its all up in the air right now... but I'm sticking with the idea that St Patrick starts in 2018
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:26 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by RunKC View Post
Agreed.

Ideally I'd like to cut Alex, restructure Maclin, tell Tamba to restructure or cut him, cut Reid and cut Bailey if needed.

Easily enough to give Ford and Logan Big new deals along with another good player or two.
The Chiefs drafted Chris Jones and Tanoh to start at DE. I can't see them paying Allen Bailey $8 million in 2018.

Reid and Harris are probably "Bubble" players this year. Hali is done but if they cut him this year, the Dead Money is too much to take against the cap.

And once again, if the Chiefs cut Alex Smith in 2018, who's the backup? Who's the failsafe? Tyler Bray? Joel Stave? A shitty street free agent?
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:29 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Easy 6 View Post
I just disagree, dude... based on the widely reported intelligence and drive this kid has, he can reach a workable level of proficiency in the year and half he has IMO
Agree to disagree.

The Chiefs have gone 12-5 the past two season while suffering massive injuries to their defensive line (34 games lost last year alone), linebacker corp (39 games lost last year), their best WR in the 2015 playoffs along with their top 3 running backs, injuries to their starting left guard and top 2 running backs in 2016.

The front office is in absolutely no hurry to rush Mahomes into duty until he's absolutely ready to not lose a step in victories. I don't think that gaining $13.4 million in cap space for 2018 is going to be a determining factor in cutting Alex Smith.
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Old 05-13-2017, 11:35 AM   #20
pugsnotdrugs19 pugsnotdrugs19 is offline
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Alex's 2018 cap number is $20.6M and cutting him leaves $3.6M in dead money. It's $17M savings toward the cap.

All the OTC numbers are right as far as those go.
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:04 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Agree to disagree.

The Chiefs have gone 12-5 the past two season while suffering massive injuries to their defensive line (34 games lost last year alone), linebacker corp (39 games lost last year), their best WR in the 2015 playoffs along with their top 3 running backs, injuries to their starting left guard and top 2 running backs in 2016.

The front office is in absolutely no hurry to rush Mahomes into duty until he's absolutely ready to not lose a step in victories. I don't think that gaining $13.4 million in cap space for 2018 is going to be a determining factor in cutting Alex Smith.
Your hypothesis makes some big assumptions.

The first, being Alex was the reason for all the victories, which is highly debatable.

Second, that PM2 could not deliver the same mediocre stats of 200 yards a game and 15 TD's / 8 Ints as Alex put up last year.

Third- the Chiefs still want to be status quo average, just to keep the seats filled, only to end in another playoff defeat to a better QB.

Fourth, that Alex even stays healthy. He has been hurt and is far from Iron Man Favre. He also played very timidly at times most of the year and it showed in his running stats, which were almost non-existent.

Five, the fans will be willing to watch Alex putt around out there for two years. Playing without much passion, just to squeak by with some regular season wins while literally being bored to death watching him dink and dunk and run out of bounds on third downs. Fans at Arrowhead will be chanting PM2 the first bad game he has- I guarantee it!!

Lastly- that saved cap money is not pocket change. It is the icing on the cake to move on to the future and is More than enough to bring in a free agent backup, if Bray continues to be a bust, plus fill any holes left by all the expected departures.

PM2 will be the starter in 2018. Count on it. He will quickly make us forget about all the ultra boring play of his predecessor.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:01 PM   #22
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Your hypothesis makes some big assumptions.

The first, being Alex was the reason for all the victories, which is highly debatable.

Second, that PM2 could not deliver the same mediocre stats of 200 yards a game and 15 TD's / 8 Ints as Alex put up last year.

Third- the Chiefs still want to be status quo average, just to keep the seats filled, only to end in another playoff defeat to a better QB.

Fourth, that Alex even stays healthy. He has been hurt and is far from Iron Man Favre. He also played very timidly at times most of the year and it showed in his running stats, which were almost non-existent.

Five, the fans will be willing to watch Alex putt around out there for two years. Playing without much passion, just to squeak by with some regular season wins while literally being bored to death watching him dink and dunk and run out of bounds on third downs. Fans at Arrowhead will be chanting PM2 the first bad game he has- I guarantee it!!

Lastly- that saved cap money is not pocket change. It is the icing on the cake to move on to the future and is More than enough to bring in a free agent backup, if Bray continues to be a bust, plus fill any holes left by all the expected departures.

PM2 will be the starter in 2018. Count on it. He will quickly make us forget about all the ultra boring play of his predecessor.
And you're assuming that a 22 year old kid can run the most complicated offense in the NFL after one season of running the scout team.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:11 PM   #23
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Bailey-4
Alex-13.4
Tamba-5.42
Reid-2.42

I don't expect any of these 4 to be here next season. That's a little over $25 million next year alone and that's not counting Maclin.

The Chiefs actually are slotted to be $7.5 million in the negative in 2018, so I imagine we will see a big purge of older high dollar players either restructuring or coming off the books in 2018.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:12 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
And you're assuming that a 22 year old kid can run the most complicated offense in the NFL after one season of running the scout team.
All NFL offenses are complicated, whether Reid's is the most or not is an unknown. Point is, a lot of young guys have taken over NFL offenses and been fine. Most of them in their rookie year even.

Reid is going to mold his offensive scheme and play calling to fit Mahomes as well as he can, just as he has done with Smith.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:21 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
All NFL offenses are complicated, whether Reid's is the most or not is an unknown. Point is, a lot of young guys have taken over NFL offenses and been fine. Most of them in their rookie year even.

Reid is going to mold his offensive scheme and play calling to fit Mahomes as well as he can, just as he has done with Smith.
How many 22 year olds have "taken over" teams that have consistently won double digit games for five consecutive years and continued that streak?

Dorsey was with Green Bay when Rodgers sat for 3 full years.

They're not going to rush Mahomes, nor should they.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:23 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
And you're assuming that a 22 year old kid can run the most complicated offense in the NFL after one season of running the scout team.
I think that is a huge stretch.

Can PM2 do the following?

Hand off to the RB - Check
Throw a 2 yard slant - Check
Throw a horizontal pass - Check
Take snap, look off wide open receivers, then run out of bounds on third down- Check

He can already do everything Alex can do.

I am sure Andy will simplify the calls if he needs to so PM2 is not reading off a freaking dictionary to call a run play. Other QBs have stepped in during their Rookie years and had success, I don't see anything that will keep PM2 on the bench after 2 training camps, 8 Preseason games and an entire 2017 season to learn from our game manager.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:28 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
How many 22 year olds have "taken over" teams that have consistently won double digit games for five consecutive years and continued that streak?

Dorsey was with Green Bay when Rodgers sat for 3 full years.

They're not going to rush Mahomes, nor should they.
Most QBs don't get drafted by good teams in the first round, which is the beauty of Mahomes' situation. I've said it many times, if you want a young QB to succeed in this league, you'd better have the team around him to allow that. No QB can carry a team by himself in his first couple of years, if ever.

Mahomes gets to step on the field in 2018 (I firmly believe) with almost the entire stable of weapons currently on offense. The entire OL returns, and they are a solid bunch in pass pro. He also gets what should be one of the top 5-10 defenses in the league to lean on. That doesn't even include what they add next offseason.

The Favre/Rodgers scenario has no merit in this circumstance. Favre was a first ballot HOF QB who the fans loved more than probably any player in their franchise history at the time. None of those things can be said for Alex Smith. He's 33 years old, so if they wanted him to be playing for multiple years going forward, they wouldn't trade up and take Mahomes in the top 10 this year. They want to move on from the main thing that is holding them back, a lack of explosiveness in the passing game.

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Old 05-13-2017, 01:34 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
Alex's 2018 cap number is $20.6M and cutting him leaves $3.6M in dead money. It's $17M savings toward the cap.

All the OTC numbers are right as far as those go.
If Smith stays, they will restructure his contract based on how he plays in 2017. Very easy to move dead money into 2019
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:36 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19 View Post
Most QBs don't get drafted by good teams in the first round, which is the beauty of Mahomes' situation. I've said it many times, if you want a young QB to succeed in this league, you'd better have the team around him to allow that. No QB can carry a team by himself in his first couple of years, if ever.

Mahomes gets to step on the field in 2018 (I firmly believe) with almost the entire stable of weapons currently on offense. The entire OL returns, and they are a solid bunch in pass pro. He also gets what should be one of the top 5-10 defenses in the league to lean on. That doesn't even include what they add next offseason.

The Favre/Rodgers scenario has no merit in this circumstance. Favre was a first ballot HOF QB who the fans loved more than probably any player in their franchise history. None of those things can be said for Alex Smith. He's 33 years old, so if they wanted him to be playing for multiple years going forward, they wouldn't trade up and take Mahomes in the top 10 this year. They want to move on from the main thing that is holding them back, a lack of explosiveness in the passing game.
Favre had a 4 win and an 8 win season right after Rodgers was drafted. If Smith wins 11-12 and gets us deep into the playoffs, there is no way in hell Mahomes takes over in 2018. Absolutely not.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:37 PM   #30
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I think that is a huge stretch.

Can PM2 do the following?

Hand off to the RB - Check
Throw a 2 yard slant - Check
Throw a horizontal pass - Check
Take snap, look off wide open receivers, then run out of bounds on third down- Check

He can already do everything Alex can do.

I am sure Andy will simplify the calls if he needs to so PM2 is not reading off a freaking dictionary to call a run play. Other QBs have stepped in during their Rookie years and had success, I don't see anything that will keep PM2 on the bench after 2 training camps, 8 Preseason games and an entire 2017 season to learn from our game manager.
Clock management, read/option, progress thru multiple reads against NFL speed, make smart decisions, protect the football, call audibles, take big hits in the NFL....

There's a helluva lot more to the QB position than you think
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