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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 06-18-2017, 09:13 PM   #2581
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...or-2017-2.html

21. Lorenzo Cain (OF), Mike Moustakas (3B) & Eric Hosmer (1B), Royals (LR: 2; 15, 15): Cain is on a sudden hot streak in the power department while Moose and Hoz have turned it on since our first listing. But the group is falling. This is still quite a nice group of chips, but I’m sliding all the KC players down the list for the same reason: the Royals are on the move of late and the AL Central remains tightly packed, making a “hold” scenario seem increasingly plausible.


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Old 06-18-2017, 09:14 PM   #2582
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I l9ve this team. Im just worried about next year and onward. I was here posting and following the Royals for years before they made it big. Dayton has a tough decision but i still hope we sell to replenish the farm. I understand if he chooses not to though
Dude, your predictions for the staff next year are crazily pessimistic.

Kennedy is really unlikely to opt out at this point. And while he's not a Cy Young guy, he's a very solid major league starter.

Predicting that regression for Duffy doesn't make any sense.

Karns is a lot more proven than you seem to realize. His work as a starting pitcher has been mostly good and he was really locking in under Eiland's direction before the forearm injury. If he avoids a trip to Dr. Andrews with this forearms tightness, there's an incredible amount to be optimistic about. His ERA as a SP this year is under 3.50, and he has averaged more than a strikeout/inning. And in the month of May, he averaged 13 K/9 over four starts with a 2.04 ERA, 0.94 WHIp, and BB/9 under 2.

Hammel could certainly regress and Strahm has a ways to go before we have a good idea what he is, but this doom and gloom act is more severe than it needs to be.

They likely don't have a real contending team next year, but there are too many useful pieces to say they're going to be terrible.


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Old 06-18-2017, 09:47 PM   #2583
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Brian McCann. I read about this recently.

He's been a very consistent hitter for quite a long time but you'd never guess that's him.
It was on the baseball broadcast tonite

Didn't know he's been that consistent
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Old 06-18-2017, 10:07 PM   #2584
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Boom bitches! I told you! We aren't selling
The second part of your prediction was that we could hold onto both Hos and Moose after this season. You've also mentioned that we could hold onto Cain if we wanted to

It's important to acknowledge that while we may be able to hold onto one of these players, we will likely lose all of them with potentially little return if we hold.
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Old 06-18-2017, 10:33 PM   #2585
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
The second part of your prediction was that we could hold onto both Hos and Moose after this season. You've also mentioned that we could hold onto Cain if we wanted to

It's important to acknowledge that while we may be able to hold onto one of these players, we will likely lose all of them with potentially little return if we hold.
I've been a long time advocate of selling but if this run continues into late July, I think they keep Hosmer, Cain, Moose and Minor and just take the sandwich picks next year.

The farm system clearly isn't as barren as Baseball Prospectus has made it appear so, there's a likelihood of them winning 81+ games in 2018 without their WS stars.
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Old 06-18-2017, 10:41 PM   #2586
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I've been a long time advocate of selling but if this run continues into late July, I think they keep Hosmer, Cain, Moose and Minor and just take the sandwich picks next year.

The farm system clearly isn't as barren as Baseball Prospectus has made it appear so, there's a likelihood of them winning 81+ games in 2018 without their WS stars.
I think people keep assuming the farm is as barren as it was after the Baird era. It's not. Not even close. We have solid pieces that can allow us to have a relatively quick reload (rather than another decade long rebuild).

If we're 1-3 games back, I think the Royals should look to add contributing pieces (bullpen and off the bench help) and go for one last run.

If we're 5+ games back, I'll be a bit annoyed if the Royals hold steady, especially if Cain, Moose and Hos keep up their current production, driving up their value at the deadline.
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Old 06-18-2017, 11:32 PM   #2587
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What do we know about this Pratto kid (the 1st round draft pick)? They say he's a great hitter. Heard Joey Votto as a comp. Yet he hit .318 with only like 7 hr as a HS senior. Not real good numbers for a first round pick, but HS seasons are very short, high variance, and I'm sure it was better competition than Paola HS.
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Old 06-18-2017, 11:41 PM   #2588
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Originally Posted by Chiefspants View Post
I think people keep assuming the farm is as barren as it was after the Baird era. It's not. Not even close. We have solid pieces that can allow us to have a relatively quick reload (rather than another decade long rebuild).

If we're 1-3 games back, I think the Royals should look to add contributing pieces (bullpen and off the bench help) and go for one last run.

If we're 5+ games back, I'll be a bit annoyed if the Royals hold steady, especially if Cain, Moose and Hos keep up their current production, driving up their value at the deadline.
If Cain, Moose and Hos keep up their current production, we won't be 5+ back
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Old 06-19-2017, 12:05 AM   #2589
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If Cain, Moose and Hos keep up their current production, we won't be 5+ back
Agreed.
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Old 06-19-2017, 06:21 AM   #2590
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I think people keep assuming the farm is as barren as it was after the Baird era. It's not. Not even close. We have solid pieces that can allow us to have a relatively quick reload (rather than another decade long rebuild).



If we're 1-3 games back, I think the Royals should look to add contributing pieces (bullpen and off the bench help) and go for one last run.



If we're 5+ games back, I'll be a bit annoyed if the Royals hold steady, especially if Cain, Moose and Hos keep up their current production, driving up their value at the deadline.

It also hurts that the Royals' best overall prospect type (Mondesi) has enough MLB service time to no longer qualify for prospect status. He'd still be a top 50 type if he did.

In Mondesi and Soler, you do have two players at AAA with true star potential.

There also a lot of potentially useful pieces that don't show up on prospect lists. The A+ and A team's in Wilmington and Lexington both had multiple all stars in their league.

Side note: it appears Chase Vallot is really suffering from Wilmington's home park. Saw his splits yesterday, and they're good away from the cavern Wilmington plays its home games in.

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Originally Posted by BWillie View Post
What do we know about this Pratto kid (the 1st round draft pick)? They say he's a great hitter. Heard Joey Votto as a comp. Yet he hit .318 with only like 7 hr as a HS senior. Not real good numbers for a first round pick, but HS seasons are very short, high variance, and I'm sure it was better competition than Paola HS.

Pratto is kind of the opposite type of hitter than the Royals have traditionally taken with HS prep position players.

He's very polished and refined and shows a real aptitude for controlling the strike zone.

There's power potential there, but this isn't a kid with the tremendous raw power of Hosmer and Moustakas or Bubba Starling.

Pratto's pick is part of a subtle overall shift in the Royals approach to position players. You're seeing them draft a LOT more players who have shown plate discipline than just raw physical talents.

Guys like Nicky Lopez, Anderson Miller, Khalil Lee.



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Old 06-19-2017, 08:31 AM   #2591
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:19 AM   #2592
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Since May 1, Bubba Starling's OPS has gone from .387 to .674.
Hopefully (doubtfully) this is a sign of the light flip switching on.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:44 AM   #2593
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Hopefully (doubtfully) this is a sign of the light flip switching on.
It would be huge to have 1 less spot to have to fill via FA next year. Maybe allows you to keep Moose or Hos.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:58 AM   #2594
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It would be huge to have 1 less spot to have to fill via FA next year. Maybe allows you to keep Moose or Hos.
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Old 06-19-2017, 10:27 AM   #2595
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Since May 1, Bubba Starling's OPS has gone from .387 to .674.

And just to clarify, he is .299/.323/.458 in that time span.

He was atrocious in April. It's possible it's just a fluke hot stretch. It's also possible that the swing mechanics changes have finally clicked and are letting him tap into the prodigious physical ability.

I'll hope for the latter but not believe it until we have more track record to review.


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