2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

[duncan_idaho]

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[Shogun]

Astros lead the league in home runs. on pace for 7 runs a game! and a sub 2 Era

[Demonpenz]

graphs back me up that the royals will be good.

[Great Expectations]

Astros are looking good

[Demonpenz]

Amount of ass kicking in comparison to other ass kicking events in history.

[Demonpenz]

But demonpenz...how long will the royals be kicking ass?

[MeatRock]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

But demonpenz...how long will the royals be kicking ass?

[dmahurin]

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

But demonpenz...how long will the royals be kicking ass?

[tk13]

It's only been one game, but the Astros are dominating the American League so far.

[AndChiefs]

Originally Posted by tk13

It's only been one game, but the Astros are dominating the American League so far.

Just give them the trophy now. There's always next year, fellas!

[chefsos]

Until tonight, I thought the Royals were gonna be the feel-good story of the AL this year. Sorry guys.

[SPchief]

It's opening day so I'll go ahead and put my prediction out. 88-74 winning the 2nd wildcard

[duncan_idaho]

Posted this in the gameday thread, but for those not subscribed to it:

Prediction: Royals win 86 games (86-76)

Here are the things MOST critical to the Royals' success (I realize Rany just did this, but I have a different outlook in some areas).

1) Hosmer or Moustakas must take a "next step." Quite simply, the Royals can survive with one of these guys being league average IF the other becomes a legitimate star. If both hit, well, the offense goes from "good-enough" to scary.

As Rany pointed out in his final preview piece, Eric Hosmer is in elite company when you look at his performane as a 21-year-old. This is a good sign.

Hosmer's upside: .290/25/100/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG. If he does this and the Royals get expected contributions from Gordon, Butler, the Royals offense will be productive (because it will be getting great production from the 1, 3 and 4 spots - the three most critical in a batting order).

Moustakas' upside: .270/35/100/100/.320 OBP/.500 SLG. We saw this in the first half last season. He couldn't sustain it (partly due to an injury).

2) How good is James Shields? The Royals need James Shields to be one of the 20 best starting pitchers in major league baseball. The good news is that he has easily been one of the top 20 over the past two seasons. The bad news is that he wasn't before then.

Shields made a major approach change before the 2011 season (I have broken this down before, but short way to say it is that he started relying more heavily on his change and his curve, pitching backwards a lot of the time), so there's some reason to set his pre-2011 pitching to the side. If Shields is indeed the second-best pitcher in the division, the Royals will be in good shape.

3) Health. Most notably, Lorenzo Cain, Sal Perez and Mike Moustakas. The Royals have no real replacements in-system who can match what these three guys can do. An injury to Cain weakens the Royals' bat in CF and also makes it harder to sit Francoeur if/when he sucks. An injury to Perez takes away a 4-5 WAR player, which is tough to replace. And an injury to Mike Moustakas probably means starts from either Miguel Tejada or Elliott Johnson, neither of which is ideal.

4) The rest of the rotation. Santana, Guthrie and Davis are a key cog in this machine. We can be pretty confident those guys are going to eat about 600 innings. 2 of the 3 must eat them at at least a solid No. 3 starter level to really make this whole thing work.

The Royals blog community doesn't see it. I can. I don't expect a full season of Jeremy Guthrie at 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but I can see a full season of 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, which is just fine as a No. 3. This is based on Guthrie's past performances, especially when he was an Oriole pitching away from Camden Yard. When he's in a park that is not overly HR friendly, he has been a pretty successful guy.

On Santana, the guy is so inconsistent it's hard to say anything with certainty. But I look at his second-half performance, his unlucky HR/Flyball rate, and his contract year status... and think there's a good chance we see at least "good" Ervin this year. If "at-his-best" Ervin shows up, you're talking about a true No. 2 starter, not a No. 3.

And finally, on Davis... the guy has shown he can pitch at least at a No. 5 starter level. If he has improved at all with age and with the lessons he learned in the bullpen a season ago, that jumps up.

[Fansy the Famous Bard]

I truly love the personnel game part of baseball. This is the first time in awhile were I feel that the Royals have the pieces to do something... unfortunately, you see a lot of the same stupidity littered in there as well (Hock, Chen, Frenchy, Getz, Tejada)...

Wasted money and roster spots... Comprising of 20% the roster. GMDM has the opportunity of his career right now, and he still can't get out of his own way.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Zeke

I truly love the personnel game part of baseball. This is the first time in awhile were I feel that the Royals have the pieces to do something... unfortunately, you see a lot of the same stupidity littered in there as well (Hock, Chen, Frenchy, Getz, Tejada)...

Wasted money and roster spots... Comprising of 20% the roster. GMDM has the opportunity of his career right now, and he still can't get out of his own way.

Hochevar is the worst example of this, by far.

I won't gripe with Chen (had a feeling at the time that second year might be a burden, but in the end you're talking about very little cash).

I would be a hypocrite to criticize the Francoeur deal. At the time, I wasn't crazy about it but I understood it. They offered Cabrera the same deal, and he turned it down. Wil MYers was in the midst of a .250 campaign with no power and looked at least 2-3 years away.

I didn't expect him to repeat 2011, but I also didn't expect him to regress so far so quickly (he was worse last year than he ever was before).

Considering the way Gio has played, I actually am OK with the small deal offered to Getz. He isn't going to help you, but he shouldn't kill you.

Tejada is a good example of Moore clinging to the old ways/thoughts in baseball. He's a veteran who has been there and is being given a minor role (25th man on the bench) because of his "leadership" ability. He likely plays very little (god I hope that's it).

[Demonpenz]

It would be nice for Detriot and other teams not to preform up to expectations.