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Old 04-17-2018, 02:26 AM  
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Correlations Between Punting and Defense and Punting and Winning

Well, you guys think I'm a nut... So here it is, the data you've all been waiting so patiently for. I've included the Excel Workbook I used. the 20##P tabs are punting stats, the 20##D are defensive stats with correlations to punting, and the 20##WL tabs are W/L records with correlations to punting. I even made a sheet with all the glorious data in one spot.

There is no strong correlation between having a good punter and how good an NFL defense is and there is no strong correlation between having a good punter and win percentage. So, next time you want to defend a contract to a punter for millions per year, I'm going to tell you that you're an idiot. So long as a punter is NFL caliber, he's simply good enough.

Below are the correlation coefficients. I'll leave it to you folks to pour through the rest of it on your own.

Spoiler!
Attached Files
File Type: xls Punting Correlation to Defense and Winning.xls (156.0 KB, 40 views)
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Old 04-17-2018, 03:43 PM   #31
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Originally Posted by staylor26 View Post
Iím the internet tough guy? Thatís ironic considering what you followed that up with. This is the second time Iíve heard you talk about fighting after you got your feelings hurt on CP, hence why Iím calling you a pussy. Who lets a stranger on a football forum get them so butthurt?

You talking like youíre the baddest mother****er on the planet (no pun intended) is absolutely hilarious though. Real badasses know thereís always somebody badder. Thatís how I know youíre full of shit.
I'm not butthurt, I just think you're a stupid mother****er that talks out of his ass. The only one really upset is you, which is why you continue to drag this out and try to get the last word in. Who am I asking to fight? If I'm such a pussy, I'll give you my address to come say it to my face. Would that make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside?
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Old 04-17-2018, 05:19 PM   #32
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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I didn't read thru the thread but I can tell you that punter from texas can win a game for you. When you drop 27 punts in one game on the 1 yard line your defense should get at minimum 3 safetys. 6-0 wins every time.
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Old 04-17-2018, 05:28 PM   #33
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hog's Gone Fishin View Post
I didn't read thru the thread but I can tell you that punter from texas can win a game for you. When you drop 27 punts in one game on the 1 yard line your defense should get at minimum 3 safetys. 6-0 wins every time.
Hey, 27 in one game? I might have to change my theory.
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Old 04-17-2018, 08:03 PM   #34
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lol this thread got fun
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Old 04-17-2018, 09:45 PM   #35
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say that to my face ****er not online and see what happens
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:34 AM   #36
Chargem Chargem is offline
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I've skipped a lot of posts in here because of all the shade being thrown, but I was just wondering if a punter has as much value as a holder for kicks as he does for punting.

I doubt there are stats correlating missed kicks with blame on the kicker/holder/snapper though to be able to dig into this?
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Old 04-21-2018, 12:20 PM   #37
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chargem View Post
I've skipped a lot of posts in here because of all the shade being thrown, but I was just wondering if a punter has as much value as a holder for kicks as he does for punting.

I doubt there are stats correlating missed kicks with blame on the kicker/holder/snapper though to be able to dig into this?
I think that would be a film dig kind of deal and would be really hard to pull off. Not only that, some teams have a backup QB hold, some have the P hold. You'd be getting a mixed bag there. I wouldn't expect there to be anything significant there, but that's me just saying that based on what I observe and nothing concrete.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:02 PM   #38
Chargem Chargem is offline
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Originally Posted by kccrow View Post
I think that would be a film dig kind of deal and would be really hard to pull off. Not only that, some teams have a backup QB hold, some have the P hold. You'd be getting a mixed bag there. I wouldn't expect there to be anything significant there, but that's me just saying that based on what I observe and nothing concrete.
Yeah I knew it would be a pain to get any decent data. I was just thinking my gut feeling is more kicks get missed because of the snapper/holder combo than the kicker himself.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:31 PM   #39
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I'm not sure those are the right things to be measuring.

To really determine the effectiveness of a good punter you'd have to measure the effect he has on the defense, not directly correlating a team with good defense to the quality of their punter.

Does having a top five punter in the league v. a replacement level punter keep points off the board, does it make teams have to drive more of the field to score?

A good defense doesn't need a great punter to be good, but how much better does having a great punter make a good defense? That's the question that needs to be asked.

Anecdotally, I would point to the Texas v. Mizzou bowl game last year for what an elite punter can do to a teams offense. If you want to tell me that Mizzou starting over 1/2 of their drives inside their own 15 yard line didn't have an affect on that game I have a bridge in New York I'd like to sell ya.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:41 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan View Post
I'm not sure those are the right things to be measuring.

To really determine the effectiveness of a good punter you'd have to measure the effect he has on the defense, not directly correlating a team with good defense to the quality of their punter.

Does having a top five punter in the league v. a replacement level punter keep points off the board, does it make teams have to drive more of the field to score?

A good defense doesn't need a great punter to be good, but how much better does having a great punter make a good defense? That's the question that needs to be asked.

Anecdotally, I would point to the Texas v. Mizzou bowl game last year for what an elite punter can do to a teams offense. If you want to tell me that Mizzou starting over 1/2 of their drives inside their own 15 yard line didn't have an affect on that game I have a bridge in New York I'd like to sell ya.
I think you need to look at the data and your question will be answered... I'm not getting into another argument over this because someone can't read it.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:45 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by kccrow View Post
I think you need to look at the data and your question will be answered... I'm not getting into another argument over this because someone can't read it.
It's a poor presentation and what you presented doesn't answer the questions I posted above. I'm a data analyst for a living.

Post your data up in a google drive spreadsheet.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:51 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan View Post
It's a poor presentation and what you presented doesn't answer the questions I posted above. I'm a data analyst for a living.

Post your data up in a google drive spreadsheet.
I posted the excel spreadsheet in the only format this forum accepts, which is 97-2003 xls. You can open it in any later version and save it.
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Old 04-21-2018, 02:54 PM   #43
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Just so you know, I did correlate the number of punts inside the 20 versus points per game and yards per game by defenses. The data you want is there.
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:09 PM
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:22 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by kccrow View Post
Just so you know, I did correlate the number of punts inside the 20 versus points per game and yards per game by defenses. The data you want is there.
No, it's not...because it's not answering the question I posed.

Which is how much better does a top 5 punter v. a replacement level punter effect the game.

Simplistically posting points and ypg and then the correlation between that and the number of times a punter puts the ball inside the 20 is a poor metric.

A very basic take down of that metric is the fact that teams with poor offenses will tend to have a higher usage rate of their punter, giving that punter, regardless of his quality, more chances to knock down punts inside the 20 yard line.

The Jets had the most punts in the NFL in 2017 and the 3rd most punts knocked down inside the 20. The Jets also had one of the poorest offenses in the NFL in 2017. The Jets also had one of the lowest % of punts inside the 20 in the NFL last season.

Your metrics are way too basic to be evaluating the impact a great punter has on a team. Which, is why the formula needs to be built to determine the effect that a great punter over replacement level has on a team. You can't directly marry punting average/IN 20, net, etc., to defensive rankings and call it a day.

A more compelling measurement would be the % of punts inside the 20 yard line. From a high level 8 of the top 10 teams in the NFL last year in that statistic were in the top 15 in the league in defensive points per game. 6 of the top 10 in PPG were also top 10 in % of total punts inside the 20.

You need to determine how much better or worse a team would be with a great punter. Does having a great punter mean instead of giving up 21.3 points a game the team now gives up 20.5? If so, what value does that give to the teams over the course of a season.

Your simplistic tables and expression of the statistics don't get the job done.
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Old 04-21-2018, 03:43 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntexascardfan View Post
No, it's not...because it's not answering the question I posed.

Which is how much better does a top 5 punter v. a replacement level punter effect the game.

Simplistically posting points and ypg and then the correlation between that and the number of times a punter puts the ball inside the 20 is a poor metric.

A very basic take down of that metric is the fact that teams with poor offenses will tend to have a higher usage rate of their punter, giving that punter, regardless of his quality, more chances to knock down punts inside the 20 yard line.

The Jets had the most punts in the NFL in 2017 and the 3rd most punts knocked down inside the 20. The Jets also had one of the poorest offenses in the NFL in 2017. The Jets also had one of the lowest % of punts inside the 20 in the NFL last season.

Your metrics are way too basic to be evaluating the impact a great punter has on a team. Which, is why the formula needs to be built to determine the effect that a great punter over replacement level has on a team. You can't directly marry punting average/IN 20, net, etc., to defensive rankings and call it a day.

A more compelling measurement would be the % of punts inside the 20 yard line. From a high level 8 of the top 10 teams in the NFL last year in that statistic were in the top 15 in the league in defensive points per game. 6 of the top 10 in PPG were also top 10 in % of total punts inside the 20.

You need to determine how much better or worse a team would be with a great punter. Does having a great punter mean instead of giving up 21.3 points a game the team now gives up 20.5? If so, what value does that give to the teams over the course of a season.

Your simplistic tables and expression of the statistics don't get the job done.
For starters, great idea. However, you've made absolutely false statements on rankings for 2017.

Here is PTS/G and %IN 20 Rank Sorted Low to High
Spoiler!


Here is YDS/G and %IN 20 Ranks Sorted Low to High
Team Yds/G %IN 20 Rank
Spoiler!


I also ran the correlations on PTS/G to %IN 20 and YDS/G to %IN 20 and they are here:

Spoiler!
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