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Old 01-03-2008, 10:23 PM  
Taco John Taco John is online now
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Nothing to be ashamed of...

Regardless of what the peanut gallery will say, Ron Paul supporters have nothing to be ashamed of here. We have over 10,000 supporters in a state that we knew would be hard for us. We won the battle for independant voters within the party. We obliterated the national front runner with the high profile name. We proved that we belong on the debate stage.

We have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:09 PM   #16
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To be honest, I'm disappointed. I would have been content with 3rd place. I really believed Paul's support was better than the polls were showing.

Almost as disappointing is the fact that Huckabee won. Between the top two, I was pulling for Romney. This party is sliding farther and farther from fiscal conservatism with each election.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:13 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter
True. But I'm still willing to give him some credit, for an "unexpected" push.
I'm just saying, we keep hearing over and over in this forum how BS polling is, but again it did a pretty good job of telling us where things are.

RCP average:
Huckabee 30
Romney 27
Thompson 12
McCain 12
Paul 7
Giuliani 6

Actual:
Huckabee 34
Romney 26
Thompson 13
McCain 13
Paul 10
Giuliani 3

I'm not trying to denigrate the efforts of his supporters who have an admirable dedication and zeal to the cause, but it deserves to be restated that polling is a science that can be reasonably accurate if done correctly.

One campaign tool being used to combat the "He's got no shot" argument was that the polling was BS and the grassroots nature of the caucuses was going to give him a big lift. It looks like the caucus format and the big effort did give him a lift, from 7 to 10 percent. But at the end of the day, he only beat a guy who didn't even run in Iowa.

So, for the benefit of the next time we hear about how terrible ""scientific"" polling is, let it be said.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:14 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John
Actually, to be honest, our numbers are about on pace for my expectations. I expected 12,000 - 15,000. With 87% reporting, it looks like that's about where we'll fall.

It's Fred Thompson's numbers that are exceeding where I thought they would be.
Yeah, McCain beat you too. You failed miserably. You also predicted Obama pulling up the rear due to a major lack in turnout.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:16 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
I'm just saying, we keep hearing over and over in this forum how BS polling is, but again it did a pretty good job of telling us where things are.
Yep, I was one of the people saying it. I didn't think it would be drastically off, but I figured you could pretty much add the margin of error to Paul's numbers and be pretty close. I was wrong. He polled at 10% earlier this week and that's right where he is. Yay for polling.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:17 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
To be honest, I'm disappointed. I would have been content with 3rd place. I really believed Paul's support was better than the polls were showing....
That's because you believed guys like TJ. Sorry for that, man.

Paul is DOA. Unless he want's to hand the election to the Dems, which...I have contended all along is his plan.

Paul could be 2008's Ralph Nader. Nothing more. Nice.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:19 PM   #21
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ronpaul is the guy Peter McNeeley fought to warm up for the guy he fought before his title shot.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:20 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
Yep, I was one of the people saying it. I didn't think it would be drastically off, but I figured you could pretty much add the margin of error to Paul's numbers and be pretty close. I was wrong. He polled at 10% earlier this week and that's right where he is. Yay for polling.
It takes a lot of effort to boost your numbers like that, I mean, from 6 or 7 to 10 was almost 40% higher, so the effort was definitely there. Tons was accomplished to make that happen. I just don't think he has a lot of traction with average Republican voters.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:22 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John
Votes are still coming in... The county I'm most interested in is Jefferson County. This is supposedly supposed to be a significant Paul stronghold. ABC says that third place is still a three way race... We'll see...
U were right about Jefferson County. Paul 1st place
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:29 PM   #24
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It never ceases to amaze me how delusional people are for their candidates. Just be honest.

Despite wearing out the carpet hoping Gore and Kerry would win in '00 and '04, by the next morning I knew there was no chance in rat hell that either were going to win.

Sometimes hope just paints you as a goddamned fool. It's almost like some of these guys are the Luftwaffe dropping victory pamphlets over East Berlin in late April of '45.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:47 PM   #25
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AP shows him winning Jefferson County.

That's one I guess.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:49 PM   #26
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TJ how have Paul followers been reacting to this evening?
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:58 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |Zach|
TJ how have Paul followers been reacting to this evening?
A mix of meltdowns as well as people like TJ accentuating the positive.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/forumdisplay.php?f=252
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:02 AM   #28
Taco John Taco John is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
So, for the benefit of the next time we hear about how terrible ""scientific"" polling is, let it be said.


Stretegic Vision had Paul at 4%. American Research Group had him at 6%. Mason-Dixon had him at 5%. LA Times/Bloomberg at 1%.

Scientific polling isn't perfect.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:07 AM   #29
Taco John Taco John is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by |Zach|
TJ how have Paul followers been reacting to this evening?

Like you'd expect a Chiefs loss to be. Plenty of people melting down. Plenty of people trying to put things in a positive perspective.

I have always thought Iowa would be one of our hardest states, but was optimistic that we could place third. I didn't expect Fred Thompson to do so well. McCain's little push this last week also caught me off guard.

It is what it is. We didn't get what we had hoped for out of Iowa, but there's plenty to be positive about. Finishing in double digits percentage-wise is actually a big deal.

Most people would have guessed that it was Rudy finishing with 10% and Ron Paul finishing with 3%.
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Old 01-04-2008, 12:15 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam
A mix of meltdowns as well as people like TJ accentuating the positive.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/forumdisplay.php?f=252
Seems a lot of people are complaining about organization, that the national campaign didn't spend enough money there even though they raised a lot. One guy said he became a county chairman in Iowa two weeks ago... lots of complaining about lack of organization. But mostly it just seems like true believers who can't understand why people voted for other candidates.
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