Decision Lens, Dorsey and the Draft

[Saccopoo]

After two interesting drafts, I'm fully convinced that Dorsey gives a lot of credence to this software in his personnel decisions.

Dorsey on using the Decision Lens software for player evaluations/decisions:

"I used Decision Lens in Green Bay and I've brought it to Kansas City because I view it as a game changer for identifying and analyzing talent," said John Dorsey, General Manager of the Kansas City Chiefs. "The Decision Lens solution helps us add analytics to complement and test our assumptions and really focus on the key trade-offs inherent in every personnel decision."

Decision Lens giving you a rough concept of what the software does:

Decision Lens is helping NFL teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, as well as a number of other teams across the NFL, MLB, and NHL, to do just that. By mixing raw data with expert opinions from coaches and scouts, Decision Lens helps teams prioritize the players that are best for THEM come draft day. With the amount of data that is now collected about players, it is difficult to know where to start. By applying a scientifically-based approach to player selection and defining which criteria are most important to an organization, teams can run various scenarios real-time to see which players rise to the top and which become less desirable. The Chiefs will use Decision Lens to pinpoint good players who may have slipped through the cracks or, conversely, recognize that a player they think is near the top of their list actually has some important flaws.

Decision Lens is now being used in the NFL to help
teams guide player selection decisions for supporting draft
decisions, as well as for making business decisions at the
administrative levels.

By bringing together the judgments and priorities
of the coaching and scouting staffs and personnel
executives, organizations can develop player rankings
based on what is important to their team.

Rank potential player candidates using both
quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria:
- Physical attributes: speed, height, weight etc.
- Intangibles: fit with team, big play ability,
leadership etc.
- Stats and performance: TDs, career receptions, etc.
- Character: attitude, work ethic, personal history, etc

Perform “what-if” analysis on-the-fly during the NFL
draft as team dynamics and the draft board changes

Accurately track performance and value of players from
pre-draft workouts through their playing career

The real power of the software is in its dynamic
sensitivity capability which allows teams to first
quantitatively prioritize criteria—both tangible and
intangible measures—and then dynamically change the
priorities of criteria to see the impact on the overall
ratings of all of the candidates for a position. The result
of the process is a list of prioritized players by position
that can then be evaluated against actual performance
data to improve understanding of drivers to performance
by position.

The model enables decision-makers to have more
informed trade-off conversations as they prepare for the
draft through a process called pairwise comparisons.
Using wireless keypads, decision makers compare criteria
and ultimately derive priorities through comparisons
weighted based on the level of influence of various
decision makers in the organization.

[Discuss Thrower]

I can see the value in such software in spitting out comparisons between prospects and veteran players when you control for age and based on objective data like physical traits and comparative strength / weaknesses of teams...

.. but I don't see how throwing in subjective measures to the program helps anything. That should just be taken into consideration when looking at the numbers.

[OldSchool]

You're a bit late on this . . .

[KCUnited]

Hope they kept the receipt.

[Beef Supreme]

Maybe they should add injury history to the data they use.

[Direckshun]

It's an interesting concept.

Honestly, we should just accept this: John Dorsey is a Combine measurables guy. He places performances there above just about anything else.

[O.city]

The SR Bowl and the Combine.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

It's an interesting concept.

Honestly, we should just accept this: John Dorsey is a Combine measurables guy. He places performances there above just about anything else.

I'm not so sure.

Fulton had the slowest 20 shuttle time of any combine participant in 2014 and Dorsey drafted him.

Tardiff didn't even go to the combine.

As well, he passed on Donte Moncrief for Phil Gaines, despite Moncrief having one of, if not the best, Combine performances of 2014.

There is a lot of "I just don't get it" picks the past couple of years and it goes beyond Combine results. Way beyond, IMO.

I'm really thinking that he's put all his eggs into this Decision Lens basket in terms of developing a player draft list hoping that every year turns out to be a Clay Matthews year.

I really hope that that's not the case as I don't see the guarantees in success or failure with humans that can be achieved with business modelling that the Decision Lens is typically utilized for.

[John Dope]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Honestly, we should just accept this: John Dorsey is a Combine measurables guy. He places performances there above just about anything else.

I don't know about that. He seems like he buys into his scouts more than any GM I've ever seen. I don't think he focuses on the combine much. I swear I once heard him say he would prefer not to even watch the work outs and just do the interviews. The only thing I am positive about is that he does follow his board to the tee. It's BPA 100% of the time for Dorsey and I like that.

As for the Decision Lens, knowing he uses it really doesn't tell us anything. Without knowing what he enters in as the most important attributes or how he ranks the categories it's pretty much useless to us.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by John Dope

I don't know about that. He seems like he buys into his scouts more than any GM I've ever seen. I don't think he focuses on the combine much. I swear I once heard him say he would prefer not to even watch the work outs and just do the interviews. The only thing I am positive about is that he does follow his board to the tee. It's BPA 100% of the time for Dorsey and I like that.

As for the Decision Lens, knowing he uses it really doesn't tell us anything. Without knowing what he enters in as the most important attributes or how he ranks the categories it's pretty much useless to us.

I think that sucks balls, especially if your board sucks.

You end up as the Detroit Lions. Receiver, receiver, receiver, receiver...

There should be some level of Need considered as well. Ford, because you have Hali and Houston, was a waste. Same with the Murray pick. Same with Thomas. Unless you are absolutely sure you are sending one of these guys into free agency after the 2014 season these were absolutely redundant picks that netted the Chiefs close to zero for the 2014 season.

So, now, the Chiefs still have the same gaping holes at OL and WR and S that they had to start the 2014 off-season because Dorsey decides to stick to BPA no questions asked and ends up with a bunch of backups, special teamers or IR qualifiers at positions that were some of the deepest on the team (OLB, QB, RB).

To me, it was a complete waste of a draft simply because Dorsey stuck to whatever information was given to him by his scouts and the Decision Lens system versus attempting to get the best player available as it related to team need.

[John Dope]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

I think that sucks balls, especially if your board sucks.

You end up as the Detroit Lions. Receiver, receiver, receiver, receiver...

There should be some level of Need considered as well. Ford, because you have Hali and Houston, was a waste. Same with the Murray pick. Same with Thomas. Unless you are absolutely sure you are sending one of these guys into free agency after the 2014 season these were absolutely redundant picks that netted the Chiefs close to zero for the 2014 season.

So, now, the Chiefs still have the same gaping holes at OL and WR and S that they had to start the 2014 off-season because Dorsey decides to stick to BPA no questions asked and ends up with a bunch of backups, special teamers or IR qualifiers at positions that were some of the deepest on the team (OLB, QB, RB).

To me, it was a complete waste of a draft simply because Dorsey stuck to whatever information was given to him by his scouts and the Decision Lens system versus attempting to get the best player available as it related to team need.

I see where you are coming from but, I also think about Green Bay taking Nelson, Rodgers, and Cobb when they didn't need them. I see both sides of it.