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Old 05-12-2014, 08:48 PM  
BossChief BossChief is offline
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LNBS: Aaron Murray will be our Nick Foles
I think both guys waited a year too long to enter the draft.

If Nick Foles had come out after his junior year, he would have had a chance to be a first round pick. If Aaron Murray came out last year, he would have, too. Heck, Tony Dungy said on espn last year that he would take Aaron Murray first overall if he had come out.

I know some here have said the guy won't ever have a chance to start, but I really think the kid can do everything Alex Smith did last year and then some, if given the chance.
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Old 05-13-2014, 08:42 AM   #121
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This is the part of the debate that turns everything to hell.

It's a complete logical fallacy to claim Murray can't be Brees or Wilson because he was selected at the 163rd pick in the draft. You're using as examples two QBs who were passed up by every single team at least once and saying a third QB can't be those guys BECAUSE teams passed him up repeatedly. Numerous counter-examples exist to poke a hole in your theory, but if any of the legit ones are mentioned (Tom Brady is the most popular) then people like me get accused of comparing Aaron Murray to Tom Brady, which is hardly the case.

If you're going to say a QB can't play in the NFL, talk about his traits, his experience, his shortcomings, and the stuff we can work with.

Again, we're not saying "**** stats." It's absolutely true that QBs picked in higher rounds do way better than QBs picked in the lower rounds. That's not in question, but nobody is challenging that notion. Just as nobody is challenging the notion that Murray has a tough road to climb to even be considered as a starting QB for a brief amount of time, much less be a great one.

There are ALWAYS exceptions, where QBs fall farther than they should into the middle rounds, a team picks a guy up, and he has a killer career. All people are doing is saying, "Aaron Murray has as good of a chance as any of the soon-to-be washed out late round QBs to make it past backup status." Which is true. Most NFL analysts, scouts, and draft gurus are saying that Murray has some intriguing things about him that can make him not just another Curtis Painter or Ricky Stanzi. That's it.

That's what this conversation is about.
Yep. It's frustrating that people continue to have the same argument that a guy can only be X good if he went in X round. Because all you have to say is "Tom Brady." And then everyone gets annoyed, because you're using an old, rehashed argument.

They retort that Brady and Brees and Wilson are anomalies, because they have talent that was dismissed - talent that Murray doesn't have. But right there is the point - bring the argument back to the actual player.

Because debating what round some guy went in as the sole indicator of success is next to worthless. All it takes is one example to completely discredit it.
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Old 05-13-2014, 08:44 AM   #122
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I like the Aaron Murray pick, but maybe we should have some kind of a pool where we guess the date of the first "Murray should start over Smith" thread.
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Old 05-13-2014, 08:46 AM   #123
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I read more than one publication that projected him as a 1st round pick. Sorry, I didn't save any of the URLs, but it really doesn't matter.

Six foot QBs don't typically get a lot of love in the NFL draft, no matter how good they are on the field. Murray's accuracy and production were special in college. The reason he fell to the 5th is the ACL injury.
I think the reason he fell was because of the ACL injury, plus a prior broken leg, plus concerns about his height, plus concerns about his arm strength, plus concerns about how he performed in some of the big games he played.

I like Murray a lot, and I think we may have gotten the best value for a QB in the draft. But we didn't get 1st round value in the 5th. He will have a lot of work to do and the odds will be stacked heavily against him, like any mid/late round QB.
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Old 05-13-2014, 08:53 AM   #124
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But if he would have entered the draft last year it's in my opinion the Chiefs wouldn't have drafted him anyways cause Reid was hell bent on trading for Smith. So this way we get both.
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:08 AM   #125
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I think the reason he fell was because of the ACL injury, plus a prior broken leg, plus concerns about his height, plus concerns about his arm strength, plus concerns about how he performed in some of the big games he played.

I like Murray a lot, and I think we may have gotten the best value for a QB in the draft. But we didn't get 1st round value in the 5th. He will have a lot of work to do and the odds will be stacked heavily against him, like any mid/late round QB.
Great post.
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:21 AM   #126
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:30 AM   #127
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Rolling out to his right and throwing on the run across his body to the opposite end of the field. A la Aaron Rodgers.

Bray can do this.
Sure....but can he hit his WR while doing it?
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:36 AM   #128
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If Aaron Murray is Matt Cassel thats a good pick when you look at 4th round or drafted later QB's who produced and started atleast 16 games.
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:52 AM   #129
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Sure....but can he hit his WR while doing it?
Did you see his preseason game against GB?
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:55 AM   #130
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Did you see his preseason game against GB?
Nope.
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:58 AM   #131
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Murray was a second/third round prospect that slid to the 5th because of the knee injury. More than likely he will be a top backup instead of starter, but still its a good value pick and the step in the right direction for a franchise that doesn't value drafting quarterbacks.
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Old 05-13-2014, 09:59 AM   #132
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If Aaron Murray is Matt Cassel thats a good pick when you look at 4th round or drafted later QB's who produced and started atleast 16 games.
No way, homeslice. Matt Cassel is never a good pick...never under any circumstances....unless of course you are able to trade him for a #34 overall pick in the draft a few years after you draft him...or something stupid like that. Oh wait.....nevermind.
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Old 05-13-2014, 10:06 AM   #133
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No way, homeslice. Matt Cassel is never a good pick...never under any circumstances....unless of course you are able to trade him for a #34 overall pick in the draft a few years after you draft him...or something stupid like that. Oh wait.....nevermind.
Wrong. Hes the most productive QB taken in the late rounds not named Brady. That should bring some prospective to the conversation.
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Old 05-13-2014, 10:06 AM   #134
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I like Murray but I firmly believe they are all in with Alex for the next 5 years.

This was a very smart pick though. Alex has been injured a lot before coming here, so having a capable guy come in is huge.
I think Reid's premise here is to buy low/sell high. I can see him trying to get a 2nd or 3rd from a desperate team in the future.
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Old 05-13-2014, 10:12 AM   #135
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Murray was a second/third round prospect that slid to the 5th because of the knee injury. More than likely he will be a top backup instead of starter, but still its a good value pick and the step in the right direction for a franchise that doesn't value drafting quarterbacks.
I think Murray's drop was affiliated a bit with the knee injury... I also think he dropped in this year's draft because of the talent/depth of this year's draft when compared to the average draft. Who knows, a 5th round QB this year could have been a 2nd-3rd round pick in last year's "not so deep" draft.

Not to mention, Murray's style of play is so system-specific. I think the system has to be a specific one in order for things to work out for him and the team he gets drafted by and potentially plays for... the Saints would have been a good fit...the Chiefs are an awesome fit for him, IMO. I think the Chiefs staff knew he was likely to drop a bit because of that, so they took their chances and ultimately got their guy in the freaking 5th.

Murray comes off as a bright kid to me and I believe he is capable of catching on to a WCO very quickly...I just hope he is able to execute it effectively if given the chance.
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