FT: Scouts analysis of AFCW 2006

[StcChief]

Decent analysis of AFCW needs/wants

Updated: February 15, 1:47 PM ET
WR, safety big concern for Broncos

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Scouts Inc.

Scouts Inc. has evaluated the team needs for all 32 NFL teams. Here's a
breakdown of the AFC West.

Denver Broncos
Denver has a good nucleus of players, and the Broncos feel that one or
two
key acquisitions could mean a trip to the Super Bowl. However, their
ability
to make substantial offseason moves is handcuffed by salary-cap issues.
While LOT Matt Lepsis, OC Tom Nalen and DT Gerard Warren aren't
technically
unrestricted free agents, all three can void their current contracts by
March 1. If they all return, there won't be enough cap space to sign
many
free agents. It's also important to note that Denver needs to get
younger at
several positions. While it will use the draft to add some youth to the
roster, don't be surprised to see it sign a few younger midlevel free
agents
that may not have reached their full potential, as well.


Rod Smith
Wide Receiver
Denver Broncos

Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Rec Yds TD Avg Long YAC
85 1105 6 13.0 72 418

Wide receiver: While Rod Smith, 36, continues to produce, he has lost a
step
with age so the Broncos need to start preparing for life after him.
Ashley
Lelie makes some big plays, but he isn't a consistent
short-to-intermediate
route-runner and he drops passes he should catch. There isn't great
depth
here either. Denver needs a receiver it can groom to replace Smith and
build
a receiving corps around.

Interior offensive line: Age appears to have caught up with Nalen, 34,
and
he now has problems holding his own at the point of attack working
against
two-gap players. The problem is there is no heir apparent, as there is
marginal depth behind him. Making matters worse is the depth at guard
is
also suspect. If Nalen returns, the Broncos need a good backup swing
player
that can provide depth at guard as well as center and eventually start
at
center. If Nalen isn't back, they need a starter.

Defensive safety: Starters John Lynch and Nick Ferguson are still
playing
well but both are near the end of their careers and neither has good
cover
skills. Backup strong safety Sam Brandon is an unrestricted free agent
and
nothing more than a backup. Denver needs a strong No. 3 safety who
excels in
coverage and is versatile enough to back up both positions.

Defensive tackle: Gerard Warren and Michael Myers are stout against the
run
but endurance is an issue for both players, as they struggle to sustain
their play for an entire game. No. 3 Monsanto Pope is an unrestricted
free
agent who won't compete for a starting job if he does come back. The
Broncos
need a situational pass-rusher who can spell the starters as a result.

Quarterback: Jake Plummer is entrenched as the starter but Bradlee Van
Pelt
is raw, and there is no assurance that he'll be able to move the
offense if
forced to step in for Plummer. Adding a veteran to back Plummer up
would
give Van Pelt at least one more season to develop.

The Broncos need a reliable possession receiver who can contribute
immediately, and they need to overhaul their offensive line. The only
problem is that it will be tough to find the money to sign key free
agents
if they aren't willing to part ways with key veterans. Most of Denver's
unrestricted free agents are role players who add depth and contribute
on
special teams, so they are considered expendable. However, Lepsis,
Nalen and
Warren have significant cap numbers. While all three could void their
contracts, which would free up some much-needed cap space, the Broncos
are
expected to bring all three back at this point. Keeping that in mind,
their
biggest personnel acquisitions could come on draft day.

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City clearly needs a reliable go-to wide receiver and consistent
performers to stabilize the defensive backfield. It's also important to
point out that the Chiefs are a veteran team, and several needs are
starting
to creep into the equation because so many key players are entering the
twilight of their careers. The interesting aspect of Kansas City's
offseason
is its cap situation. Money is tight right now, and the Chiefs may have
to
fill their needs primarily through the draft if they don't free up more
cap
space. Of course, the cap situation will change if LOT Willie Roaf
and/or
ROG Will Shields retire. If either player's career ends, it will free
up
considerable cap room. However, that doesn't mean they won't be back.
New
head coach Herm Edwards is a good recruiter, and he will encourage both
to
stay in an effort to keep an outstanding offensive line together.


Wide receiver: The Chiefs have good depth here, but they lack a go-to
player
with the speed, body control and strong hands to consistently make
plays
downfield. Eddie Kennison is a capable No. 2 but isn't very physical or
strong so corners have success muscling him out of
short-to-intermediate
routes. Samie Parker is still a little raw, Dante Hall is too small to
push
for an every-down role, and Marc Boerigter is an unrestricted free
agent who
has had some problems staying healthy. Consequently, adding a
difference-maker and a true No. 1 is important.

Defensive corner/defensive safety: Sammy Knight is starting to slow
down and
Greg Wesley remains inconsistent. The backups are experienced, but they
aren't playmakers who will push the starters for substantial playing
time.
While Patrick Surtain can be an excellent cover corner, Eric Warfield
is
inconsistent starting opposite him, and none of the backups appear
ready to
step into an every-down role. As a result, Kansas City needs a safety
and a
corner.

Defensive tackle: Ryan Sims is solid as one starter, but Lional Dalton,
31,
is an unrestricted free agent and is more of a situational player than
he is
a starter at this point in his career. Backup John Browning shouldn't
be
playing an every-down role, either. The Chiefs need a massive interior
run
stuffer who can play on downs with run-heavy tendencies.

Carlos Hall
Defensive End
Kansas City Chiefs

Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Tot Ast Solo FF Sack Int
14 11 3 2 1 0

Defensive end: Unrestricted free agent Carlos Hall was a bust in 2005,
making a costly trade to bring him to Kansas City look like a poor
decision,
and he might not return. Without a productive Hall on the roster, Jared
Allen is the only legitimate edge rusher. Eric Hicks is a better run
defender than pass-rusher. The Chiefs need an explosive edge rusher to
pair
with Allen and improve their disappointing sack total of 29.

Quarterback: Damon Huard and Todd Collins are on the downside of their
careers, and neither will develop into a quality starter, so both may
be
gone. Trent Green is almost 36 years old, and the Chiefs desperately
want to
find a younger backup with the potential to replace him when he
retires.

Although the Chiefs still seem to be in the window of opportunity in
terms
of reaching the Super Bowl, it's starting to close and they have some
needs
to fill. They also have to make some important decisions concerning
veterans
on the roster. FB Tony Richardson, OLB Gary Stills, DCs William Bartee
and
Julian Battle and DE Hall are key unrestricted free agents. However,
the
aging veteran free agents will probably get short-term contracts at a
reasonable rate if they want to come back. In fact, one of the biggest
challenges Kansas City's front office faces this offseason is keeping
restricted free agent Jordan Black, who is the heir apparent at right
or
left tackle. Black will get a high tender from the Chiefs and force any
other team to pay dearly to sign him, as they cannot afford to lose
him.

Oakland Raiders


The Raiders love to be free-agency players but it might not happen this
year. In fact, their offseason strategy might be up in the air until
they
figure out what to do with DC Charles Woodson. They don't have a lot of
money to spend right now, but releasing him or trading him would give
them
some relief. If they franchise him it will cost them over $12 million,
which
is a lot of money for a player who doesn't always play like an elite
cover
corner. There are not a lot of tough decisions to be made with the rest
of
their free agents, so they might try to re-sign most at the right
price.

Outside linebacker: Oakland lacks playmakers here; the only proven
commodity
is WLB Kirk Morrison. The other starter, Tyler Brayton, and backup
Grant
Irons may move back to defensive end where they are far better fits,
especially in the 4-3 defense. Sam Williams has great athleticism but
durability is a concern. As a result, the Raiders need a versatile
starter.

Strong safety: Incumbent starter Derrick Gibson has been plagued by
injuries
and he hasn't played all that well when he's been healthy. Backup
Jarrod
Cooper is an unrestricted free agent who might or might not be back,
but he
probably won't compete for an every-down role if he does re-sign.
Oakland
needs a sound open-field tackler who flashes the ability to make the
big
play in coverage.

Offensive guard: The Raiders are unsatisfied with their guard play and
they
need to get younger and faster. Ron Stone, 36, is clearly nearing the
end of
his career, and No. 3 Brad Badger is a good backup at best. While
Langston
Walker has potential, he is too inconsistent. The hope is that Walker
comes
around and Oakland signs a guard that can eventually replace Stone.

Defensive tackle: They can still play at high levels at times but
incumbent
starters Warren Sapp and Ted Washington are in the twilight of their
careers. Although Tommy Kelly and Terdell Sands are valuable backups,
both
are situational players who shouldn't develop into every-down players.
Oakland needs a developmental prospect who is physical and quick enough
to
eventually develop into a starter.

Running back: LaMont Jordan may have worn down some in 2005, as he
didn't
give the Raiders a lot of big plays. Making matters worse, backup
Justin
Fargas carried the ball just five times this year, and he can't seem to
get
on track. The Raiders need a back who can share some carries with
Jordan and
help keep him fresh late in games as well as late in the season.

Charles Woodson
Cornerback
Oakland Raiders

Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Tot Ast Solo FF Sack Int
31 27 4 1 0 1

When it's all said and done, Oakland might cut its losses with Woodson
and
let him go to create more cap space. In addition, unrestricted free
agents
Cooper and DC Renaldo Hill are expected back, so the loss of Woodson
doesn't
substantially weaken depth. Two other players the Raiders will try to
bring
back at the right price are DE DeLawrence Grant and Ed Jasper. As far
as any
other possible cap casualties, Sapp and WR Ronald Curry have both had
some
problems saying healthy. They have big salary-cap numbers, and it could
be a
tough call for the Raiders' front office if they are not healthy by
training
camp. Keeping that all in mind, Oakland's front office should be very
busy
between now and July.

San Diego Chargers


San Diego's whole offseason revolves around the quarterback position.
It
looked like the Chargers would trade Philip Rivers and sign Drew Brees
to a
new long-term contract before Brees had shoulder surgery at the end of
the
season. Now they may keep both players. The only problem with that
approach
is that it will be expensive, and it will limit the moves they can make
in
free agency. However, San Diego is still in fairly good position. While
its
free-agent group includes some quality contributors, most are role
players
that it won't have to break the bank to re-sign. The Chargers have also
done
a great job of restructuring contracts, so they don't have to panic and
move
Brees or Rivers right now.

Defensive safety: The Chargers safeties play with good motors and mean
streaks, but Terrence Kiel and Bhawoh Jue and backup Clinton Hart are
all
far better defending the run than they are dropping into coverage. San
Diego
needs an athletic starter who tackles well in the open field, has the
man-to-man cover skills to match up with most slot receivers and is a
playmaker.

Left offensive tackle: Roman Oben is 33 years old, and he is coming off
a
season-ending foot injury. The Chargers could make him a cap casualty,
and
his replacement would be Leander Jordan unless they add a tackle to the
roster. Jordan is a strong drive blocker, but he isn't a great fit at
left
tackle because he has problems holding his own on an island when the
Chargers drop back to pass. They need an efficient run-blocker and,
more
importantly, an upper-echelon pass-blocker (who can protect Brees'
blind
side) to compete for the starting job.

Keenan McCardell
Wide Receiver
San Diego Chargers

Profile
2005 SEASON STATISTICS
Rec Yds TD Avg Long YAC
70 917 9 13.1 54 179

Wide receiver: Keenan McCardell is a productive short-to-intermediate
receiver who still flashes the ability to make the big play. The
problem is
that he is aging and there is no true No. 1 here. Eric Parker isn't
really
physical, so he probably fits better as No. 3 slot receiver, and Reche
Caldwell is an unrestricted free agent who probably won't be back. San
Diego
needs a vertical receiver who can stretch the field and draw double
teams
away from TE Antonio Gates.

Offensive guard: Starters Mike Goff and Kris Dielman are tough
blue-collar
players, but they struggle working against quicker one-gap defensive
tackles. Although Dielman is young and he can still get better, Goff is
nearing the end of his career and there is marginal depth behind them.
Keeping that in mind, the Chargers need a physical starter who can
prevent
penetration.

Defensive corner: San Diego has two former first-round picks at corner,
but
neither has developed into an elite cover player, as Quentin Jammer and
Sammy Davis are inconsistent. Making matters worse, former second-round
pick
Drayton Florence has also been up-and-down, and nickel back Jamar
Fletcher
is an unrestricted free agent who might not be back.

General manager A.J. Smith will make some moves in free agency, but
this
will remain an organization that builds though the draft. San Diego
will
concentrate on upgrading the offensive line and secondary. The good
news is
the Chargers don't have a lot of key free agents to re-sign once they
lock
Brees up to a long-term contact. The Chargers will bring back their
role
players at the right price, but they won't overpay. Players like OLBs
Ben
Leber and Carlos Polk, Caldwell and TE Justin Peelle could be back. San
Diego also will concentrate on keeping two of their key restricted free
agents, RILB Stephen Cooper and Dielman.

[Bowser]

Jesus.

I only read for the Chiefs. Sims is a solid starter? Warfield is "inconsistant at best"? Bartee is a "key unrestricted free agent"?

Get to know the team, just not what is said about them.

[JohnnyV13]

To make a long story short:

Chiefs Needs are:

No. 1 WR
A DT
pass rushing DE
Safety
Corner
Backup QB

That's 5 needs

QB: I suspect Casey Printers will be QBOTF (for now).

CB: Cut Warfield and sign Ty Law (cap implications should be similar since we can give Law a bonus, spread it out over four years, and come up with a cap number that won't be any more than the cap savings from cutting Warfield. I also think Warfield is a party boy who drags down the work ethic of the entire D. Ty Law is a prima donna but he at least works.

Safety: Wesley needs to go.....Knight isn't great but he's smart Wesley is dumb and inconsistent.

Pass RUshing DE: ???? Would love John Abraham, but i don't think we have the cap.

DT: I think we get this in the draft b/c FA is thin with help.

[StcChief]

More interested in moves being made by others in AFC

Don't agree with every analysis.

Chiefs

Sims hasn't been a solid, consistent starter. Injuries,etc. Likely will be classified in future as a #1 draft 'bust'.

Dalton - aging widebody.

Warfield - missed 4 games, was adequate as #2.

Bartee,Battle - depending on where /how he played in cover2.... and price.


Did point out several looming problems.

[Mile High Mania]

This was posted yesterday by Scouts? If I'm not mistaken... Nalen has already agreed to a new 3 year deal, so there's no question about his return... unless you read what Scouts says.

[Mile High Mania]

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...435065,00.html

Kinda what I thought... on Feb 2 (13 days prior to Scouts publishing this gem), Nalen agreed to a 3 year deal.

Solid reporting, Scouts.

[Hoover]

I don't think the Chiefs need to go out and get a #1 WR, while it would be nice its not needed. I think our main problem is our depth. Dante Hall should be nothing more than a #4 WR not a #3.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by JohnnyV13

To make a long story short:

Chiefs Needs are:

No. 1 WR
A DT
pass rushing DE
Safety
Corner
Backup QB

That's 5 needs

QB: I suspect Casey Printers will be QBOTF (for now).

CB: Cut Warfield and sign Ty Law (cap implications should be similar since we can give Law a bonus, spread it out over four years, and come up with a cap number that won't be any more than the cap savings from cutting Warfield. I also think Warfield is a party boy who drags down the work ethic of the entire D. Ty Law is a prima donna but he at least works.

Safety: Wesley needs to go.....Knight isn't great but he's smart Wesley is dumb and inconsistent.

Pass RUshing DE: ???? Would love John Abraham, but i don't think we have the cap.

DT: I think we get this in the draft b/c FA is thin with help.

We might be able to afford Abraham if we don't throw away money needlessly on Ty Law.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by nm_dbf

In fact, one of the biggest challenges Kansas City's front office faces this offseason is keeping restricted free agent Jordan Black, who is the heir apparent at right or left tackle. Black will get a high tender from the Chiefs and force any other team to pay dearly to sign him, as they cannot afford to lose him.

ummm...did i miss something?

[ChiefsfaninPA]

I think the Chiefs need to go out and get a number one front office. That might help to cure some of our ills.

[JohnnyV13]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

We might be able to afford Abraham if we don't throw away money needlessly on Ty Law.

Nah....it would be a straight replacing Warfield with Law. The cost of adding law would be very close to the savings from cutting warfield, at least in year one.

Cutting Warfield to afford Abraham would be a questionable move, since then you would have a hole at corner.

The problem, of course, is that Law is 2 years older than Warfield, and what dioes the 07 cap look like?

[chagrin]

Originally Posted by ChiefsfaninPA

I think the Chiefs need to go out and get a number one front office. That might help to cure some of our ills.

Nicely done dude

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by JohnnyV13

Nah....it would be a straight replacing Warfield with Law. The cost of adding law would be very close to the savings from cutting warfield, at least in year one.

Cutting Warfield to afford Abraham would be a questionable move, since then you would have a hole at corner.

The problem, of course, is that Law is 2 years older than Warfield, and what dioes the 07 cap look like?

You're assuming that it could be done.

Law is older, has been injured, and wanted $10M guaranteed last year BEFORE getting 10 INT's and making the Pro Bowl.

He's gonna want a 1 or 2-year deal worth huge money. Bank on it. He's not gonna cost what Warfield costs - he's gonna cost what Surtain costs.

[CoMoChief]

Cut McCleon, Restructure Trent and TonyG, resign TRich

Cut FS Woods, sign CB Law

Cut or restructure LB Bell, cut DE Hall, sign DE Abraham

Draft a DT (from Michigan or Wright from TX) in 1st rd

Draft OT with 2nd round (it would be great if Winston was still there, I doubt it though)

Draft WR or S with 3rd round pick (pick best player out of both positions)

Draft WR or S with next pick (which ever position wasn't addressed to in the previous pick)

Draft CB with next pick

Draft RB/FB with next pick


I can't wait for next season. I would really like to see players like Sapp, Battle, Grigsby, Hodge, and Thorpe see more action.

I dont really know anything about the cap and the numbers that go along with it. But I would be pretty happy if this happened.

[Chief Roundup]

I can't remember the contract that FB Holcombe got last season and then was on IR all year.