Sagarin NFL Ratings: Chiefs #8 (#32 SOS)

[Prison Bitch]

Anyone disagree? In the rating we have the worst schedule in the NFL so far, with Denver only 1 slot better. After this week when they've played Jax it might change, but we are playing the 2-3 Raiders so it might still be close.


http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm



On point differential however, we have an expected W/L record of 4.3-0.7 whereas Denver is only 3.8-1.2. However, the simple rating system (Pro Football Reference) has them at a whopping 15.4 vs us at 8.9 based on our low SOS. We're behind the same Sagarin teams like Seattle, Indy, NE, etc:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/kan/2013.htm




I'm having trouble finding any computer ranking that puts us in the Top 5. This computer ranking system was the worst at 16th overall which seems stupid but at least he's predicting a 6.03 point win vs Oakland Sunday:
http://talismanred.com/ratings/nfl.shtml

[BullJunkandIron]

Wouldn't the Chiefs be up for Cleveland after the steamer they put on our chest last year?

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by SNR

This doesn't go against the assertion that the Chiefs have played mostly a docket of shitty teams thus far, but somebody should do the math of the SOS of undefeated teams in the NFL. Say, for 5-0 teams historically. As a 5-0 team, that means you've dealt a loss to each team on your schedule. Naturally, that will lower the overall record of your opponents. Because you've been handing them losses.

Also, three of the under .500 teams the Chiefs have faced (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) have also played the Broncos, another 5-0 team. There's another 3 losses. Those three teams, sure, are kinda poopy and smelly, but it doesn't help a poopy and smelly team to have had to face TWO perfect teams through the first 5 weeks of the season.

I'm willing to bet that a good portion of 5-0 teams in NFL history had low strengths of schedule. That's kinda how it works out, mathematically.

I was thinking about this the other day, specifically the bolded part.

Originally Posted by Direckshun

It bears mentioning that the Cowboys and Eagles are 2-1 against non-Chiefs/Broncos teams.

The Giants are 0-4. The Jags are also 0fers.

The Titans are 3-1 against non-Chiefs teams.

My contention is that we've beaten three real good teams, and two shitrockets.

Shitrockets that we've beaten by at least three touchdowns each, by the way. This team is for real.

This idea also has merit..

Until you remember that the Eagles and Cowboys both have wins over the shitrocket Giants. The Boys only other win this season came against a slightly less shitty shitrocket in the Rams and the Eagles only other win came against the shitstain Redskins.

You can only play your schedule though. Before the season, everyone thought we were going to be facing a murderer's row so **** 'em now.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by SNR

This doesn't go against the assertion that the Chiefs have played mostly a docket of shitty teams thus far, but somebody should do the math of the SOS of undefeated teams in the NFL. Say, for 5-0 teams historically. As a 5-0 team, that means you've dealt a loss to each team on your schedule. Naturally, that will lower the overall record of your opponents. Because you've been handing them losses.

Also, three of the under .500 teams the Chiefs have faced (Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) have also played the Broncos, another 5-0 team. There's another 3 losses. Those three teams, sure, are kinda poopy and smelly, but it doesn't help a poopy and smelly team to have had to face TWO perfect teams through the first 5 weeks of the season.

I'm willing to bet that a good portion of 5-0 teams in NFL history had low strengths of schedule. That's kinda how it works out, mathematically.

+1. Great post.

[BWillie]

Playing Jacksonville will certainly hurt your SOS but I really think Dallas and Tenn are pretty good. Certainly the Giants are underachieving, they will probably go 4-12 but they are as good as an 8-8 team. Philly should end up about 8-8 as well.

What I'm happy about is our UPCOMING schedule. There's no reason this team shouldn't win 3 of 4. Three straight home games coming up against Oakland, I mean it's Oakland. An overachieving Cleveland team, and then vs Matt "I throw at least 1 pick six a game" Schaub. I can't imagine Schaub having to face this defense, it should be pretty entertaining. Then @ a mediocre Buffalo team.

How epic would it be for the 9-0 Chiefs going against a 9-0 Dungver game? It would be the talk of the land. Alot to ask, but the defense is playing so well it's possible.

[Stumplifter]

Originally Posted by lcarus

Its such a bad schedule due to how terrible the NFC EAst is, and thats partly due to how the AFC West has improved as a whole by a lot and destroyed the NFC EAst. Plus Jacksonville..

This

[Prison Bitch]

I'd disagree strongly the giants are an 8-8 quality team. First team ever I heard to start with 6 straight losses all with 25 or more allowed and 3 or more turnovers per. That's a bad team

[Bob Dole]

As Bob Dole pointed out earlier in the week, 20% of our opponent's losses are to us.

SOS after 5 games should not be weighted much in any analysis.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by PGM

Losing to the Browns would be embarrasing. I still say Houston concerns me most. They are out gaining their opponents by like over 100 yards a game I heard.

That's the one I'd pick.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Bob Dole

As Bob Dole pointed out earlier in the week, 20% of our opponent's losses are to us.

SOS after 5 games should not be weighted much in any analysis.

It's not preventing the Donkeys from being 1 in Sagarin though

[58-4ever]

Luckily this is not college football, so who gives a **** what a computer thinks.

[CoMoChief]

i think we lose against BUF. our oline will get ass****ed again.

[whoman69]

Its got to be more than just SOS. Atlanta (#17) is 1-4 with their only victory against #30. SOS is #12. Texans have a better record at 2-3 and their SOS is #2 but they're ranked 21st. Jets have a winning record, #13 SOS and they're 25th.

[mdchiefsfan]

Originally Posted by PGM

We lose one of those games before the bye and this place melts down lol

It will be right before the bye so we have to read about it for 2 weeks.

[Easy 6]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

If we go into the bye 9-0, I'd say we did our job exactly as it needed to be done.

Good Gawd... i'm not even daring to go that far, wont even think about it because its too much to ask.

If we can get to 6-0 i'd be totally thrilled, its almost a mathematical certainty we go to the playoffs after that, barring some supremely spiteful act of God.

Just kill these faders at home and i can deal with the rest, there are certainly going to be some losses in the future but they'll end up being good for the team.

Kinda like the old saying "you learn more from losing than winning", the losses will help keep them angry and sharp.

[38yrsfan]

9-0 isn't squat. If it happens, it happens. Hell, I remember 13-3 vividly and what really mattered is that the Chiefs lost when they should have won. Many "pro" predictors would have the Chiefs at anywhere from 1-4 to 3-2 before the season started, and felt they were generous with that.

This team doesn't seem to be like that at all. They really don't seem to care what anybody thinks beside Reid. They actually try and win the game for a full hour as if their paychecks depended upon it. Lots of work-horse type attitude that really shows in the 4th when philosophy and some guts combine.

IMHO