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Old 08-05-2019, 01:51 PM  
Lex Luthor Lex Luthor is offline
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Trade Wars are good and easy to win. Dow drops 950 points.

Thanks Donald!

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Dow plunges more than 950 points after China devalues its currency

The Dow tumbled more than 950 points and global stocks were in disarray on Monday after China escalated the trade war with the United States.

The Chinese government devalued the yuan to fall below its 7-to-1 ratio with the US dollar for the first time in a decade Monday. A weaker currency could soften the blow the United States has dealt China with its tariffs.

The weak yuan ignited fear on Wall Street that a currency war has begun or that the United States would respond with even higher tariffs, prolonging the standoff with China and potentially weakening the global economy. Investors are particularly concerned that the Trump administration could try to devalue the dollar, sparking a currency war that could weaken Americans' purchasing power.

"Risks of Trump intervening in foreign exchange markets have increased with China letting the yuan go," wrote Viraj Patel, FX and global macro strategist at Arkera, on Twitter. "If this was an all out currency war - the US would hands down lose. Beijing [is] far more advanced in playing the currency game [and has] bigger firepower."

President Donald Trump once again called China a currency manipulator on Monday, saying the yuan devaluation was a "major violation." Trump has long attacked China for its currency policy, even though the Treasury has refrained from officially labeling the country a currency manipulator.

China announced Monday its companies have halted purchases of American agricultural goods. That helped to drive stocks even deeper into the red.

US stocks were sharply lower, with the Dow (INDU) falling more than 950 points, sinking below 26,000 points for the first time since June. The Dow was on pace for its third-worst point drop in history.

The S&P 500 (SPX) traded 3.7% lower, and could post its worst day of 2019. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) fell more than 4%, its biggest decline since October 24, 2018. If the Nasdaq closes lower Monday, it will have logged its longest losing streak since November 2016, when it fell for nine-consecutive days in the lead-up to the presidential election.

The S&P 500 is on track for six consecutive down days for the first time since October, while the Dow is on track for its longest losing streak since March. Last week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite logged their worst week of the year last week.

Hit particularly hard were tech stocks. Apple (AAPL), Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were among the biggest losers on Monday.

The VIX (VIX) volatility index soared more than 30% to a seven-month high. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index is indicating "Extreme Fear."
Asian markets all fell more than 1.6% Monday, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 2.9% as protests continue in the region. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 finished down 2.5%. Germany's DAX and France' Cac 40 closed 1.8% and 2.2% lower, respectively.

US government bonds rose and yields fell as traders looked for safe investments. The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.7413%. The yield curve the difference between shorter and longer-term bond yields grew the widest since April 2007. That inversion of the yield curve has predated every past recession.

Escalating the trade war

The yuan weakened sharply after the People's Bank of China set its daily reference rate for the currency at 6.9225, the lowest rate since December. The central bank said in a statement that Monday's weakness was mostly because of "trade protectionism and new tariffs on China." President Donald Trump threatened a new round of tariffs on the country last week.
Devaluing the yuan is one way China has of retaliating against the tariffs. A weaker currency helps Chinese manufacturers offset the costs of higher tariffs.

Analysts at Capital Economics said the move showed that Beijing has "all but abandoned" hopes for a trade deal with the United States.

In US economic data, the non-manufacturing index for July from the Institute of Supply Management undercut consensus expectations, which didn't help matters.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/05/inves...day/index.html
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Old 08-06-2019, 09:30 PM   #121
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Trump also LOVES to grab credit for lowering the unemployment rate for black Americans. Once again, Trump is simply riding Obama's coattails.

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Old 08-06-2019, 09:44 PM   #122
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What would you do differently?

Currently, The treasury is collecting Tariff Revenue and the costs of most goods to US importers is about the same as China's Currency has been devalued through manipulation and the slowest Economy they've had in 27 years. So the cost of goods to importers are the same even after tariffs, consumer prices are stable, and we are paying farmers less than we've collected in tarriff's. We have the leverage and China will suffer. If it holds out until 2020 it will lose supply chains that will never return... They are playing a bad game of chicken.
Yikes, you actually believe we've collected enough tariff revenue to overcome the costs? We're already talking about a $28B in farm bailouts alone compared to $20B collected in tariffs. That doesn't even count the massive indirect business tax American companies have taken on through production cost increases as a result of the trade war - those are the costs that are most concerning. Those costs aren't just direct costs. The shock to the supply chain creates costs all across the system. The reason people say nobody wins a trade war is because America loses too. We've already lost a ton of money out of this despite the fallacy that the tariff revenue even remotely recovers the cost of this trade war. We also lose permanent market share too. Brazil and Russia have ramped up their soy production and now that they have those farms, they become a permanent threat to our market share. And because we're going cowboy on all our trade agreements, other countries are learning how to trade around the US and our exports are getting crushed not just in China, but all across Asia. Sure, China gets hurt more than the US does but again there is no need to cut the nose to spite the face.

Tariffs are a fine short-term tool, but not when it's run by somebody who doesn't understand the cost-benefit of the tariffs.

We should have tore up the TPP (which we did... good decision) but then pushed for a new agreement that put true multilateral pressure on China. Every nation wants to fight back against China, not just the US.
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Old 08-06-2019, 09:48 PM   #123
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Anyone thinking stock market gains or losses are based on presidents or politics is a tard.
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Old 08-07-2019, 06:42 AM   #124
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Originally Posted by Lex Luthor View Post
Trump also LOVES to grab credit for lowering the unemployment rate for black Americans. Once again, Trump is simply riding Obama's coattails.

Interesting trend for somebody you claim is a racist.
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Old 08-07-2019, 06:50 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by lewdog View Post
Anyone thinking stock market gains or losses are based on presidents or politics is a tard.


Do you even watch ANY of the financial channels? How about the traders on the floor who were being interviewed, those experts would 100% disagree with you.

Seriously dude, I'm a huge supporter of this POTUS, but when HE ramped-up trade war with China the market reacted. I'm not sure you have a clue about cause and effect, but that dive (even if we recover) was 100% on President Trump and his dealings with China...
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Old 08-07-2019, 06:52 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Yikes, you actually believe we've collected enough tariff revenue to overcome the costs? We're already talking about a $28B in farm bailouts alone compared to $20B collected in tariffs. That doesn't even count the massive indirect business tax American companies have taken on through production cost increases as a result of the trade war - those are the costs that are most concerning. Those costs aren't just direct costs. The shock to the supply chain creates costs all across the system. The reason people say nobody wins a trade war is because America loses too. We've already lost a ton of money out of this despite the fallacy that the tariff revenue even remotely recovers the cost of this trade war. We also lose permanent market share too. Brazil and Russia have ramped up their soy production and now that they have those farms, they become a permanent threat to our market share. And because we're going cowboy on all our trade agreements, other countries are learning how to trade around the US and our exports are getting crushed not just in China, but all across Asia. Sure, China gets hurt more than the US does but again there is no need to cut the nose to spite the face.

Tariffs are a fine short-term tool, but not when it's run by somebody who doesn't understand the cost-benefit of the tariffs.

We should have tore up the TPP (which we did... good decision) but then pushed for a new agreement that put true multilateral pressure on China. Every nation wants to fight back against China, not just the US.
You need to read my post again, slowly, your supply chain comments are, at this time, bullshit as those prices have remained steady due to the factors indicated. China is doing this so they don't lose the supply chain business permanently. As soon as the cost rise for American importers they will move that supply chain to other Asian or African countries where labor is plentiful and more affordable and no tariffs. This will cause some short term supply and cost issues, but the key is short term. Oh, and you are just wrong on the Tarriffs amount collected, it covers the farm subsidies, and until we see any significant rise in prices, this is being absorbed by China.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-col...ne-11565168400

Quote:
U.S. Collected $63 Billion in Tariffs Through June
Treasury’s haul began skyrocketing last year after Trump administration imposed new tariffs in retaliation for what it said were unfair business practices
Your easy answer is after the TPP is "we should have gotten others to join together in this pursuit of fairness"? They are free to jump aboard at anytime, but you, as well as me, understand that they don't have current economic conditions or leadership in their countries to do so. Thanks to deregulation and tax policy, we actually have a chance for this to work with our economy being much better than other countries. Will there be some short term pain to some sectors? Absolutely, but in the long run this was long overdue.
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Old 08-07-2019, 10:37 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by IowaHawkeyeChief View Post
You need to read my post again, slowly, your supply chain comments are, at this time, bullshit as those prices have remained steady due to the factors indicated. China is doing this so they don't lose the supply chain business permanently. As soon as the cost rise for American importers they will move that supply chain to other Asian or African countries where labor is plentiful and more affordable and no tariffs. This will cause some short term supply and cost issues, but the key is short term. Oh, and you are just wrong on the Tarriffs amount collected, it covers the farm subsidies, and until we see any significant rise in prices, this is being absorbed by China.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-col...ne-11565168400



Your easy answer is after the TPP is "we should have gotten others to join together in this pursuit of fairness"? They are free to jump aboard at anytime, but you, as well as me, understand that they don't have current economic conditions or leadership in their countries to do so. Thanks to deregulation and tax policy, we actually have a chance for this to work with our economy being much better than other countries. Will there be some short term pain to some sectors? Absolutely, but in the long run this was long overdue.
Consumer prices are stable... Relatively and so far, but supply chains are not. Input costs are up, supply chains have had to be totally dismantled, and we've introduced a ton of supply chain uncertainty because nobody knows what to produce where and for how long. These all add tons of costs. You think the decision is as simple as just deciding not to source from China anymore? These tariffs are a massive burden on American business.

We've paid out farmers $26b. GDP is way down. Exports are way down. Input costs are up and there are tons of indirect costs not measured. As I've said before, if we get a huge win on something like IP... Great. But to act as if we're barely hurting let alone pumping up tariff revenue as any kind of benefit is wrong. Tariffs are hurting us big time and it's upped the stakes that the US has better win enormous to justify the short and long term damage.
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Old 08-07-2019, 10:53 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Consumer prices are stable... Relatively and so far, but supply chains are not. Input costs are up, supply chains have had to be totally dismantled, and we've introduced a ton of supply chain uncertainty because nobody knows what to produce where and for how long. These all add tons of costs. You think the decision is as simple as just deciding not to source from China anymore? These tariffs are a massive burden on American business.

We've paid out farmers $26b. GDP is way down. Exports are way down. Input costs are up and there are tons of indirect costs not measured. As I've said before, if we get a huge win on something like IP... Great. But to act as if we're barely hurting let alone pumping up tariff revenue as any kind of benefit is wrong. Tariffs are hurting us big time and it's upped the stakes that the US has better win enormous to justify the short and long term damage.
Again, what would you do differently? Bringing other countries along isn't that answer, as they could be along already, and choose not to due to their poor economy.

Your points are interesting as Trump is taking risk with these policies. I believe its a necessary risk to avoid the unfair practices, and the cost associated with those, for long term gain. Trump isn't doing this for any other reason than he thinks it best for America. He would be much better off with the status quo and .5% higher GDP, but he chooses to do what's best for the long term, not for poll numbers. It's time somebody called China for what it is, other than staying on the path where they would surpass us economically through unfairness and intellectual property theft...
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Old 08-07-2019, 11:05 AM   #129
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Again, what would you do differently? Bringing other countries along isn't that answer, as they could be along already, and choose not to due to their poor economy.

Your points are interesting as Trump is taking risk with these policies. I believe its a necessary risk to avoid the unfair practices, and the cost associated with those, for long term gain. Trump isn't doing this for any other reason than he thinks it best for America. He would be much better off with the status quo and .5% higher GDP, but he chooses to do what's best for the long term, not for poll numbers. It's time somebody called China for what it is, other than staying on the path where they would surpass us economically through unfairness and intellectual property theft...
I think there are a lot of players in TPP. It doesn't have to be all. Japan is cleaning up with their new trade agreement. Asia countries are more motivated than the US to deal with the China problem. If you want to do something about IP, get a few trade partners to attack China with precision trade punishments multilaterally. I'm not talking about a new TPP which had so much garbage in it. Take the garbage out and focus on how to multilaterally take on China. Not only would we strengthen trade with Asia, we'd also put a hell of a lot more pressure than dealing with China alone.
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Old 08-07-2019, 01:01 PM   #130
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Anyone thinking stock market gains or losses are based on presidents or politics is a tard.
Politics? Agree
Policies? Disagree
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 08-07-2019, 01:30 PM   #131
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Live webcam of America-hating Lex Loser watching the Dow go green after being down big earlier today:

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Old 08-07-2019, 01:33 PM   #132
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Another successful Lex thread!

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Old 08-08-2019, 11:51 AM   #133
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So, it took 3 days to recover what was lost? These algorithms that are mucking up the Dow Futures after hours are really messing with the volatility and someone(s) are making a lot of money on the market.

I gained everything I had lost in my 401k, plus whatever i purchased this week. Economy is so strong right now, even with the trade wars... I just purchased (built) a house. Mortgage Rates are at lows that EVERYONE should be taking advantage of.

Economy will be at record highs once China / USA agreements are finalized.

Trump has forced the Feds hand to cut the rate WHILE we have a positive economy. (after they said they wouldnt). This strategy has been incredible. You can hate trump for a lot of things.. but he has been on point with how he is dealing with this.
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Old 08-08-2019, 11:56 AM   #134
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First off, Wall Street is not Main Street. The Globalists want to blame this all on tariffs when it has more to do with the moves of the Federal Reserve.

Geesh! I thought liberals were for the small guy not the One Percent. Currently, what we have is a labor market which is good for the working class folks. Yet, Schumer-donating-liberal democrat-Trump advisor SIL-Kushner/Patteeu is pushing for it to be an employers' market advocating for millions of more immigrants to depress wages to kill this labor market.
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Old 08-08-2019, 12:10 PM   #135
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Another successful Lex thread!

The poor guy does seem to step in fertilizer..... a lot!!!!


You know, a lot of OP's here at CP don't age well. A reasonable person can expect that considering the OP is generally trying to read the tea leaves so to speak. But, 3 days?? Anybody happen to keep track? Isn't this one some kind of record or something?

Can anybody off the top of their heads think of a classic CP backfire that happened quicker? It would be a cool read if you can
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