Mock (3/19)

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 11:13 AM

Did my best to make an acceptable mock that we here on CP would love, while remaining loyal to the Dorsey way of doing things.

Assumptions:

1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season.

2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis

3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal.

On with the show:

1.23. OLB Dee Ford, Auburn

The Chiefs have three goals this offseason, with limited resources to do so: they need to give Alex Smith more weapons on offense; they need to boost their passrush; and they need to better stock their secondary. Fortunately, the Chiefs will be able to do some of that with in-house options: AJ Jenkins and Travis Kelce already give them improved weapons downfield, Vance Walker will help supply some push, and Sanders Commings can't possibly be worse than Kendrick Lewis or Quentin Demps.

That said, the Chiefs need to continue beefing up on all fronts, while making sure the OL isn't a cluster**** next year. Of those three tasks, passrusher is without a doubt the hardest one to do, so the Chiefs use their 1st round nuke to land the best passrusher possible.

Ford is the best passrusher possible. Essentially a one-year wonder, Ford will need a year behind Hali and Houston, before providing the team an option when difficult decisions need to be made in 2015. Ford can destroy the corner on tall, inflexible tackles like they're nothing. Even athletic tackles will have trouble keeping up with him, and the Chiefs land an excellent weapon to groom for the future.

2.62. WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt

The Chiefs can't sit on their hands during this excellent 2nd round, so they're banking on some quality compensatory picks in 2015 to make this happen. The Chiefs, as it stands, have four projected compensatory picks -- one in the third (Albert), one in the 4th (Asamoah), and two in the 5th (McCluster & Schwartz). So the Chiefs trade with the Patriots to get into the 2nd round.

The Chiefs get: 2.62, 6.182
The Patriots get: 2015 2nd, 3rd & 6th; 5.151, 6.184

This way, the Patriots get what they always love: future picks (and the Chiefs 2nd rounder in 2015 will likely be higher than #62, which the Patriots are giving up). The Chiefs get to: trade 6ths with the Pats, trade their 2nd rounder in 2015 for the more valuable 2nd rounder in 2014, and basically just move down in the 2015 3rd round since they're going to get a compensatory pick in the 3rd.

Matthews is a potential first-round caliber WR who is in a brutally tough class this year. While Matthews is nobody's idea of a burner, he is smooth as silk in his route-running with excellent hands. He will combat with Avery for #2 WR duties, and I believe after this year, that's exactly the role he'll inhabit for this team.

3.87. CB/S Antone Exum, Virginia Tech

I've drafted this guy a couple times for the Chiefs, and I'm going to keep going with it. The Chiefs already have their depth chart at corner, with Flowers, Smith, Cooper, and Parker all deserving of the #1-#4 spots on the roster. It's possible the Chiefs will lose both of their starting CBs in 2015, and Exum's long body and fluid hips make him a key acquisition to eventually fill that role.

In the mean time, the Chiefs also have a need at safety, where they'll be starting Commings and bringing back Husain Abdullah. In the event that Commings underwhelms (I'm high on him), Exum provides great depth at a position that needs it with starter-caliber upside. Exum is essentially Sanders Commings, and I've no doubt the Chiefs are super interested in him.

4.119. NT Zach Kerr, Delaware

I think Kerr could legitimately fall this far, but he honestly shouldn't. He should be a 2nd round pick, because you are talking about a guy who is 330 lbs and moves like he's 285. Kerr is an outstanding athlete with great bullish strength.

Hey, you want more passrush, do you not? The #1 way to do that this offseason is to give Dontari Poe some goddamn rest. Kerr will require a learning curve, but towards the end of the season he could be seeing 40% of the snaps, giving Poe a needed rest if/when there is a playoff push coming.

6.177. OT/G Andrew Norwell, Ohio State

The Chiefs have yet to provide depth at the OL, and I'm sure some of the OL purists on this site are knocking the mock for failing to provide that. But I believe the Chiefs really only need a swing-tackle from this draft. They've already got Rishaw Johnson as a starter-caliber player at guard, and they brought in Linkenbach as a swing-guard.

Norwell can play four of the five positions (which is fairly common in this year's draft), and is quick enough to set the edge against speed rushers (which very much isn't). Norwell looks like a decent right tackle at the next level with starter-caliber guard upside. The Chiefs will likely plug him in should Jeff Allen or Rishaw Johnson go down with injury, but for now, he's your swing tackle.

6.182. RB Damien Williams, Oklahoma

Williams has had his issues at OU, the most concerning to the Chiefs being that he had a season-ending leg injury he's coming back from. But he's also the body the Chiefs really like in a reserve RB: he's a stocky 211 lbs with 4.4 speed. Williams was the workhorse in OU's offense and it would not surprise me to see them add a 3rd RB like Williams in the 6th round, and a speedy project like John Spooney from Brown in the UDFA as a home-run threat.

**The Franchise** · 03-19-2014, 11:15 AM

You don't think we're getting a comp pick for Tyson Jackson?

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

You don't think we're getting a comp pick for Tyson Jackson?

You can only get four max.

I think Jackson's deal, as far as the compensatory pick committee is concerned, is his deal (~$25m) minus Walker's deal (~$13m), which adds up to $12m or so. Which is the same as McCluster's deal.

So I just picked one and ran with it.

**The Franchise** · 03-19-2014, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

You can only get four max.

I think Jackson's deal, as far as the compensatory pick committee is concerned, is his deal (~$25m) minus Walker's deal (~$13m), which adds up to $12m or so. Which is the same as McCluster's deal.

So I just picked one and ran with it.

Gotcha. I didn't realize a team could only get 4 max.

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 11:15 AM

QB: Smith, Daniel, Bray
RB: Charles, Davis, Williams, Gray
FB: Sherman

WR: Bowe, Avery/Matthews, Jenkins, Ford, Hemingway
TE: Kelce, Fasano, McGrath

LT: Fisher/Stephenson, Norwell
LG: Allen, Linkenbach
C: Hudson, Kush
RG: Johnson, Linkenbach
RT: Fisher/Stephenson, Norwell

DE: DeVito, Bailey
NT: Poe, Kerr
DE: Walker, Catapano

OLB: Hali, Ford
ILB: Mays, Johnson
ILB: Johnson, Johnson
OLB: Houston, Zombo

CB: Flowers, Smith, Cooper, Exum, Parker
S: Berry, Commings, Abdullah, Exum

K: Succop
P: Colquitt
LS: Gafford
KR/PR: Ford

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 11:24 AM

I didn't either until somebody pointed that out to me a couple weeks ago.

**Bowser** · 03-19-2014, 04:31 PM

Are we allowed to trade future compensatory draft picks?

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser

Are we allowed to trade future compensatory draft picks?

Nope.

**Bowser** · 03-19-2014, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Nope.

We can't trade them in any scenario, can we? So how are we trading them to get a second rounder?

EDIT - nvm. Jesus, it took me a second. Don't judge, I've been up since 3 am.

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bowser

We can't trade them in any scenario, can we? So how are we trading them to get a second rounder?

EDIT - nvm. Jesus, it took me a second. Don't judge, I've been up since 3 am.

Never change.

kccrow · 03-19-2014, 04:37 PM

Here's the way I see the comp situation starting to shape up....

Potential Qualifying Free Agents Lost:

LT Branden Albert
RG Jon Asamoah
RG/RT Geoff Schwartz
SS/KR Quintin Demps
SWR Dexter McCluster
DT Tysyn Jackson
ILB Akeem Jordan

Potential Qualifying Free Agents Gained:

DT Vance Walker
ILB Joe Mays
OG/OT Jeff Linkebach

There is much that has to happen yet for the equation, including playing time and post season honors. I'd have to look up salaries to see what the tiers are, but at this point it looks as though KC could end up qualifying for a couple comps. So far it appears Albert, Asamoah, and McCluster could be the tickets to potential picks.

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kccrow

Here's the way I see the comp situation starting to shape up....

Potential Qualifying Free Agents Lost:

LT Branden Albert
RG Jon Asamoah
RG/RT Geoff Schwartz
SS/KR Quintin Demps
SWR Dexter McCluster
DT Tysyn Jackson
ILB Akeem Jordan

Potential Qualifying Free Agents Gained:

DT Vance Walker
ILB Joe Mays
OG/OT Jeff Linkebach

There is much that has to happen yet for the equation, including playing time and post season honors. I'd have to look up salaries to see what the tiers are, but at this point it looks as though KC could end up qualifying for a couple comps. So far it appears Albert, Asamoah, and McCluster could be the tickets to potential picks.

I'd have to look up the tiers too, but we've had a decent track record of tracking where these things usually land. We all pretty much knew in 2013, for instance, that we were going to land a 3rd for Brandon Carr and a 6th/7th for Barry Richardson (I called a 7th, and was pleasantly surprised when it became a 6th).

Let's break this down.

BY THEMSELVES, with no inclusion of free agents we've signed (and again, this is all an educated guess):

Albert should be a 3rd ($~50m)
Jackson should be a 4th (~$25m)
Asamoah should be a 4th (~$22m)
Schwartz should be a 5th (~$16m)
McCluster should be a 5th (~$12m)

Again, this is my best guess. And I have no idea how much Demps and Jordan have signed for, and how much Kendrick Lewis may sign for soon.

Now, we've only signed two free agents this offseason to anything resembling compensatory-worthy money:

Walker (~$13m)
Mays (~$6m)

Now, I don't know which picks these guys will eat into, but subtracting Walker from Jackson gives you a net loss of ~$12m, which should amount to a 5th. I don't know who Mays would eat into, but it pretty much doesn't matter, because at that point we've still got our 4 picks: a 3rd, a 4th, and two 5ths.

The question is, does the Walker/Mays combination eradicate any of these picks for us? Maybe it eradicates one of the 5ths, and downgrades the other 5th.

I'm just throwing shit at a wall at this point, so I'm going to see what Google turns up.

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 05:39 PM

Google doesn't turn up anything. Because the picks are awarded by a committee using a formula that they haven't made public.

But here's what we got at this point:

The Chiefs we've lost have been signed to a combined $100,000,000 more than the Chiefs we've gained.

We're getting some handsome picks.

Direckshun · 03-19-2014, 05:44 PM

http://arrowheadaddict.com/2014/03/1...nsatory-picks/

Good piece going over the issue. I'll get deep into this later tonight when I've got some time.

kccrow · 03-19-2014, 07:16 PM

Here is the best piece ever written on the subject from the guy that was the closest to ever predicting it. He has since stopped predicting. ..

http://adamjt13.blogspot.fr/2010/03/...nfl-draft.html

03-19-2014, 11:13 AM	Topic Starter
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4423447	Mock (3/19) Did my best to make an acceptable mock that we here on CP would love, while remaining loyal to the Dorsey way of doing things. Assumptions: 1. The Chiefs extend QB Alex Smith 6 years, $90m (when you break the numbers down, it will actually break down to 4 years, $60m, with something like $35m guaranteed), and S Eric Berry 6 years, $45m ($23m guaranteed). They will extend Justin Houston at some point during the 2015 season. 2. The Chiefs let walk: WR Kyle Williams, S Kendrick Lewis 3. The Chiefs sign WR/KR Jacoby Ford (Raiders) to a 1 year, $1m deal. On with the show: 1.23. OLB Dee Ford, Auburn The Chiefs have three goals this offseason, with limited resources to do so: they need to give Alex Smith more weapons on offense; they need to boost their passrush; and they need to better stock their secondary. Fortunately, the Chiefs will be able to do some of that with in-house options: AJ Jenkins and Travis Kelce already give them improved weapons downfield, Vance Walker will help supply some push, and Sanders Commings can't possibly be worse than Kendrick Lewis or Quentin Demps. That said, the Chiefs need to continue beefing up on all fronts, while making sure the OL isn't a cluster** next year. Of those three tasks, passrusher is without a doubt the hardest one to do, so the Chiefs use their 1st round nuke to land the best passrusher possible. Ford is the best passrusher possible. Essentially a one-year wonder, Ford will need a year behind Hali and Houston, before providing the team an option when difficult decisions need to be made in 2015. Ford can destroy the corner on tall, inflexible tackles like they're nothing. Even athletic tackles will have trouble keeping up with him, and the Chiefs land an excellent weapon to groom for the future. 2.62. WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt The Chiefs can't sit on their hands during this excellent 2nd round, so they're banking on some quality compensatory picks in 2015 to make this happen. The Chiefs, as it stands, have four projected compensatory picks -- one in the third (Albert), one in the 4th (Asamoah), and two in the 5th (McCluster & Schwartz). So the Chiefs trade with the Patriots to get into the 2nd round. The Chiefs get: 2.62, 6.182 The Patriots get: 2015 2nd, 3rd & 6th; 5.151, 6.184 This way, the Patriots get what they always love: future picks (and the Chiefs 2nd rounder in 2015 will likely be higher than #62, which the Patriots are giving up). The Chiefs get to: trade 6ths with the Pats, trade their 2nd rounder in 2015 for the more valuable 2nd rounder in 2014, and basically just move down in the 2015 3rd round since they're going to get a compensatory pick in the 3rd. Matthews is a potential first-round caliber WR who is in a brutally tough class this year. While Matthews is nobody's idea of a burner, he is smooth as silk in his route-running with excellent hands. He will combat with Avery for #2 WR duties, and I believe after this year, that's exactly the role he'll inhabit for this team. 3.87. CB/S Antone Exum, Virginia Tech I've drafted this guy a couple times for the Chiefs, and I'm going to keep going with it. The Chiefs already have their depth chart at corner, with Flowers, Smith, Cooper, and Parker all deserving of the #1-#4 spots on the roster. It's possible the Chiefs will lose both of their starting CBs in 2015, and Exum's long body and fluid hips make him a key acquisition to eventually fill that role. In the mean time, the Chiefs also have a need at safety, where they'll be starting Commings and bringing back Husain Abdullah. In the event that Commings underwhelms (I'm high on him), Exum provides great depth at a position that needs it with starter-caliber upside. Exum is essentially Sanders Commings, and I've no doubt the Chiefs are super interested in him. 4.119. NT Zach Kerr, Delaware I think Kerr could legitimately fall this far, but he honestly shouldn't. He should be a 2nd round pick, because you are talking about a guy who is 330 lbs and moves like he's 285. Kerr is an outstanding athlete with great bullish strength. Hey, you want more passrush, do you not? The #1 way to do that this offseason is to give Dontari Poe some goddamn rest. Kerr will require a learning curve, but towards the end of the season he could be seeing 40% of the snaps, giving Poe a needed rest if/when there is a playoff push coming. 6.177. OT/G Andrew Norwell, Ohio State The Chiefs have yet to provide depth at the OL, and I'm sure some of the OL purists on this site are knocking the mock for failing to provide that. But I believe the Chiefs really only need a swing-tackle from this draft. They've already got Rishaw Johnson as a starter-caliber player at guard, and they brought in Linkenbach as a swing-guard. Norwell can play four of the five positions (which is fairly common in this year's draft), and is quick enough to set the edge against speed rushers (which very much isn't). Norwell looks like a decent right tackle at the next level with starter-caliber guard upside. The Chiefs will likely plug him in should Jeff Allen or Rishaw Johnson go down with injury, but for now, he's your swing tackle. 6.182. RB Damien Williams, Oklahoma** Williams has had his issues at OU, the most concerning to the Chiefs being that he had a season-ending leg injury he's coming back from. But he's also the body the Chiefs really like in a reserve RB: he's a stocky 211 lbs with 4.4 speed. Williams was the workhorse in OU's offense and it would not surprise me to see them add a 3rd RB like Williams in the 6th round, and a speedy project like John Spooney from Brown in the UDFA as a home-run threat.
Posts: 59,254

03-19-2014, 11:15 AM	#5
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4423447	QB: Smith, Daniel, Bray RB: Charles, Davis, Williams, Gray FB: Sherman WR: Bowe, Avery/Matthews, Jenkins, Ford, Hemingway TE: Kelce, Fasano, McGrath LT: Fisher/Stephenson, Norwell LG: Allen, Linkenbach C: Hudson, Kush RG: Johnson, Linkenbach RT: Fisher/Stephenson, Norwell DE: DeVito, Bailey NT: Poe, Kerr DE: Walker, Catapano OLB: Hali, Ford ILB: Mays, Johnson ILB: Johnson, Johnson OLB: Houston, Zombo CB: Flowers, Smith, Cooper, Exum, Parker S: Berry, Commings, Abdullah, Exum K: Succop P: Colquitt LS: Gafford KR/PR: Ford
Posts: 59,254

03-19-2014, 04:31 PM	#7
Bowser sorta mod-ish Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: KC North Casino cash: $3481616	Are we allowed to trade future compensatory draft picks?
Posts: 100,554

03-19-2014, 04:37 PM	#11
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3287078	Here's the way I see the comp situation starting to shape up.... Potential Qualifying Free Agents Lost: LT Branden Albert RG Jon Asamoah RG/RT Geoff Schwartz SS/KR Quintin Demps SWR Dexter McCluster DT Tysyn Jackson ILB Akeem Jordan Potential Qualifying Free Agents Gained: DT Vance Walker ILB Joe Mays OG/OT Jeff Linkebach There is much that has to happen yet for the equation, including playing time and post season honors. I'd have to look up salaries to see what the tiers are, but at this point it looks as though KC could end up qualifying for a couple comps. So far it appears Albert, Asamoah, and McCluster could be the tickets to potential picks.
Posts: 12,594

03-19-2014, 05:39 PM	#13
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4423447	Google doesn't turn up anything. Because the picks are awarded by a committee using a formula that they haven't made public. But here's what we got at this point: The Chiefs we've lost have been signed to a combined *$100,000,000 more* than the Chiefs we've gained. We're getting some handsome picks.
Posts: 59,254

03-19-2014, 11:15 AM	#2
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $3155047	You don't think we're getting a comp pick for Tyson Jackson?
Posts: 91,962

03-19-2014, 11:24 AM	#6
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4423447	I didn't either until somebody pointed that out to me a couple weeks ago.
Posts: 59,254

03-19-2014, 05:44 PM	#14
Direckshun __ Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Springpatch Casino cash: $4423447	http://arrowheadaddict.com/2014/03/1...nsatory-picks/ Good piece going over the issue. I'll get deep into this later tonight when I've got some time.
Posts: 59,254

03-19-2014, 07:16 PM	#15
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3287078	Here is the best piece ever written on the subject from the guy that was the closest to ever predicting it. He has since stopped predicting. .. http://adamjt13.blogspot.fr/2010/03/...nfl-draft.html
Posts: 12,594