(New) 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository

[duncan_idaho]

New thread, this time with more burst.

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

[Bambi]

Aoki is a done deal. ugh

[Codered]

Hmmm ... That doesn't seem that bad of a trade to me. Aoki seems like he would be a pretty good fit at the K. I don't know his contract situation or anything, but the Royals never really seemed like they were going to buy in to Will Smith being in the 5 man rotation.

[siberian khatru]

Aoki seems like a modest upgrade from Lough -- he's a little faster, a little better OBP, a little better defensively. He's also more expensive.

Wonder if Lough is going to be packaged in a deal now.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by Codered

Hmmm ... That doesn't seem that bad of a trade to me. Aoki seems like he would be a pretty good fit at the K. I don't know his contract situation or anything, but the Royals never really seemed like they were going to buy in to Will Smith being in the 5 man rotation.

Signed for $1.95 million this year, arb eligible in 2015.

[duncan_idaho]

Thoughts on Aoki:

I am not crazy about giving up Will Smith in this deal, but it does make KC better in RF.

You get the defense that Lough would provide while also adding a good OBP/average guy who can steal bases. Especially nice if this allows KC to move Gordon into a spot where he can be used as a run producer. First time they have had a viable option to Gordon at that spot since he moved to leadoff (mostly) full time in 2011.

Lough COULD have turned into Aoki, but he is less proven. And the ability to take pitches/work walks (to the tune of a lifetime OBP 70 points higher than BA) is not typically something a player develops at age 27/28).

I think a lot of people forget Lough is 28.

It's a nice complementary piece and actually is pretty similar to Boston adding Victorino before last season, with the exception that Aoki is not coming off a bad year.

Lineup probably looks like this right now:

Aoki
Bonifacio
Gordon
Butler
Hosmer
Perez
Moustakas
Escobar
2B

Would be an improved lineup from a year ago. Aoki and Gordon are both good against lefties, though, so I'd situate the lineup this way:

Aoki
Gordon
Butler
Hosmer
Perez
Moustakas
2B
Escobar
Bonifacio

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Aoki seems like a modest upgrade from Lough -- he's a little faster, a little better OBP, a little better defensively. He's also more expensive.

Wonder if Lough is going to be packaged in a deal now.

Yes. And more proven.

No guarantee Lough hits or fields as well as he did last season. Aoki has a much more reliable track record and is pretty cheap.

[Dartgod]

So does this mean no Beltran?

[WhawhaWhat]

KC leadoff hitters last season: .309 OBP. Aoki: .355 OBP.

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) December 5, 2013

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

So does this mean no Beltran?

Good question, I hope not.

[siberian khatru]

After further review, not sure if Aoki is a defensive upgrade or not. He IS a good defensive player, just not sure he's better than Lough just looking at stats. On the one hand, the Fielding Bible has Aoki saving 13 runs last year, which was fifth best in baseball. OTOH, his UZR/150 was 4.2, while Lough's was 27.3.

Now, let's stipulate the limitations of advanced defensive metrics and small sample sizes. I'm just throwing that out in case anyone challenges the idea that Aoki's D is better than Lough's. It might be and likely is, but there's an argument to be made it isn't.

But again, bottom line is Aoki IS a good defensive player regardless.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

Good question, I hope not.

Aoki to RF, Beltran to DH, Butler to trade

[Codered]

My guess is Beltran's price tag is probably too high for KC and that's why they pulled the trigger on Aoki.

[siberian khatru]

Originally Posted by Codered

My guess is Beltran's price tag is probably too high for KC and that's why they pulled the trigger on Aoki.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m
#Royals’ acquisition of Aoki does not change anything in their pursuit of Beltran. They still want him.

[BigCatDaddy]

Perhaps he replaces Cain in CF?

[Codered]

Originally Posted by siberian khatru

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m
#Royals’ acquisition of Aoki does not change anything in their pursuit of Beltran. They still want him.

That's cool, I just think the 3/48 is probably a bit high for KC. Hope I'm wrong.