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Old 03-20-2017, 09:55 PM  
bigjosh006 bigjosh006 is online now
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First round QB draft scenerio (team breakdown)

JUST A QUICK RUNDOWN OF HOW I THINK THE QB MARKET COULD WIND UP BEFORE OUR PICK IN THIS 2017 DRAFT

THIS IS MY BREAKDOWN OF THE LIKELYHOOD OF EACH TEAM GRABBING A SIGNAL CALLER.

QB NEEDY
CLE(1), SF(2), NYJ(6),CL(12), AZ(13), WAS(17), HOU(25)
COULD TAKE ONE
CHI(3), JAC(4), LA(7), BUF(10), NO(11), NYG(23)
UNLIKELY
TEN(5), CAR(8), CIN(9), PHI(14), IND(15), BAL(16), TEN(18), TB(19), DEN(20), DET(21), MIA(22), OAK(24), SEA(26)

THIS IS THE PICKS IN ORDER. THE X'S REPRESENT TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO TAKE A QB.
CLE
SF
CHI
JAC
TEN-X
NYJ
LA
CAR-X
CIN-X
BUF
NO
CLE
AZ
PHI-X
IND-X
BAL-X
WAS
TEN-X
TB -X
DEN-X
DET-X
MIA-X
NYG
OAK-X
HOU
SEA-X

A SHORT BREAKDOWN OF EACH PICK AND MY THOUGHTS ON THEIR QB SITUATION.

1.CLE
I THINK CLEVELAND BRINGS IN A SIGNAL CALLER ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WITH EITHER THE 1 OR THE 12. ALTHOUGH I THINK THEY MAY TRADE ONE OF THE PICKS AWAY FOR J. GARAPPALO AT SOME POINT.

2.SF
THIS IS A HIGH PROBABILITY. THE 49ERS NEED A QB, BUT MY GUT SAYS THEY WILL NOT USE THE NUMBER 2 ON ONE THIS YEAR.

3.CHI
CHICAGO IS KIND OF A WILDCARD. THEY DID SIGN MIKE GLENNON TO A FAIRLY LARGE DEAL, BUT THEY MAY JUST SEE HIM AS A STABILIZER OR SPOT HOLDER. I DONT THINK THEY GO QB EARLY.

4.JAC
I THINK JACKSONVILLE IS TEETER TOTTERING ON WEATHER BORTLES IS THEIR GUY OR NOT. HE IS NOT AN IDEAL QB AS OF THIS MOMENT, BUT I DONT THINK THEY ARE READY TO SCRAP THE PROJECT YET EITHER.

5.TEN
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT TENNESEE GOES QB. THEY HAVE A YOUNG MARCUS MARIOTA, AND I DONT THINK THERE IS A CHANCE IN HELL THEY ARE GOING TO BRING IN ANOTHER FIRST ROUNDER.

6.NYJ
THE JETS ARE LARGELY DEVOID OF TALENT. I DONT THINK THAT THEY ARE GOING TO GO QB THIS EARLY BECAUSE THERE ARE JUST WAY TOO MANY HOLES TO FILL.

7.LA CHARGERS
I DIDNT WANT TO PUT LA IN THE COULD COLUMN, BUT PHILLIP RIVERS ISNT EXACTLY A YOUNG PUP ANYMORE. THERES A CHANCE THEY WOULD LOOK FOR SOMEONE TO GROOM, BUT I HONESTLY DONT SEE IT HAPPENING QUITE YET.

8.CAR
LIKE TENNESEE, THE PANTHERS HAVE A YOUNG RISING STAR QB. I DONT SEE THEM BEING INTERESTED IN A QB ANYTIME SOON AS LONG AS THEY HAVE CAM.

9.CIN
I THINK CINCINATI IS PERFECTLY HAPPY WITH DALTON. I THINK ALL THE NEGETIVITY THAT ANDY DALTON GETS THROUGH THE MEDIA IS OVERBLOWN. HE HAS BROUGHT CONSISTENCY TO CINCINATI, AND OUTPERFORMED WHAT PALMER EVER DID WITH THEM.

10.BUF
IT IS AN ODD SITUATION WITH TYROD TAYLOR IN BUFFALO. REPORTS ARE THAT THE COACHING STAFF AND FRONT OFFICE DISAGREE WITH EACHOTHER ON WEATHER THEY SHOULD KEEP HIM OR MOVE ON. BUFFALO IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY TO TAKE A QB EARLY, BUT I THINK THAT THEY MAY BE TRIGGER SHY AFTER THE EJ MANUEL FIASCO.

11.NO
I HAVE THE SAINTS AS A COULD. THEY HAVE A HALL OF FAME TYPE QB, BUT HE IS GETTING UP THERE IN AGE. THEY MAY BE LOOKING TO GET A YOUNG BODY IN THERE WHILE THEY HAVE TIME FOR HIM TO LEARN THE SYSTEM, BUT MY GUT SAYS THAT NEW ORLEANS WOULD RATHER GET A YOUNG IMMEDIATE IMPACT PLAYER ON DEFENSE.

12.CLE
AS I SAID AT PICK 1, I THINK CLEVELAND BRINGS IN A SIGNAL CALLER ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WITH EITHER THE 1 OR THE 12. ALTHOUGH I THINK THEY MAY TRADE ONE OF THE PICKS AWAY FOR J. GARAPPALO AT SOME POINT.

13.AZ
THE CARDINALS HAVE ALREADY STATED THAT THEY ARE LOOKING TO BRING IN A YOUNG QB TO GROOM BEFORE PALMER DECIDES TO MAKE HIS EXIT, BUT I THINK THEY MAY LOOK IN THE LATER ROUNDS.

14.PHI
THE EAGLES TOOK WENTZ LAST YEAR, AND HE DID BETTER THEN MOST WOULD HAVE EXPECTED COMING OUT OF A SPREAD OFFENSE. NO WAY PHILLY TAKES A QB RD 1 TWO YEARS IN A ROW.

15.IND
THE COLTS HAVE ANDREW LUCK. I AM PRETTY SURE THIS IS A STRONG NO CHANCE OF THEM TAKING A SIGNAL CALLER IN THE FIRST ROUND.

16.BAL
I PERSONALLY DONT THINK FLACCO IS A GOOD-GREAT QB, BUT HE IS A STABLE, MOSTLY CONSISTENT QB. I THINK THE RAVENS HOLD PAT AT QB HERE.

17.WAS
THE REDSKINS ARE A MESS. THEY HAVE WHAT I THINK IS PROBABLY A FRANCHISE SIGNAL CALLER SITTING RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM, AND THEY ARE TRYING TO DEAL HIM AWAY. I HAVE THEM AS A PROBABLY ON MY LIST, BUT THAT IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THEIR INEPTITUDE. I DONT THINK THEY TAKE A QB UNLESS THEY END UP DEALING COUSINS.

18.TEN
LIKE I SAID FOR PICK 5, ITS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT TENNESEE GOES QB. THEY HAVE A YOUNG MARCUS MARIOTA, AND I DONT THINK THERE IS A CHANCE IN HELL THEY ARE GOING TO BRING IN ANOTHER FIRST ROUNDER.

19.TB
LIKE PHILLY, CAROLINA, AND TENNESEE, THE BUCS HAVE A YOUNG PROMISING QB THAT THEY TOOK IN THE FIRST ROUND RECENTLY. THEIR IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE TAMPA GRABS A QB HERE.

20.DEN
ALTHOUGH REPORTS SAY THAT DENVER IS IN THE ROMO SWEEPSTAKES, I DONT THINK THEY GO QB RD 1 TWO YEARS IN A ROW. THAT WOULD BE WAY TOO FAST TO GIVE UP ON LAST YEARS FIRST ROUNDER.

21.DET
THE WEAKNESSES ON THIS LIONS TEAM DO NOT LINE UP UNDER CENTER. I THINK THE LIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE A RB OR DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKER HERE. VERY UNLIKELY THEY ADD A QB HERE.

22.MIA
I DONT KNOW WEATHER THE DOLPHINS ARE SOLD ON RYAN TANNEHILL, BUT HE DID LEAD THEM TO THEIR FIRST PLAYOFF APPEARENCE IN YEARS. HE IS COMING OFF OF A GOOD YEAR, AND HE HAS PROGRESSED EVERY YEAR. I DONT THINK MIAMI TAKES A QB.

23.NYG
LIKE THE CHARGERS, THE GIANTS HAVE A QB WHO IS AGING. ELI WAS DRAFTED THE SAME YEAR AS RIVERS AFTER ALL. I DID SAY THAT I DONT THINK THE CHARGERS WOULD TAKE A QB THERE, BUT THE GIANTS ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. THIS IS ALOT LATER IN THE FIRST ROUND, AND IF THE TOP QBS ARE STILL ON THE BOARD HERE, THE GIANTS MAY BE ENTICED.
HOWEVER, I THINK IT IS A LONG SHOT.

24.HOU
HOUSTON IS PROBABLY THE MOST QB HUNGRY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. THEY ARE ON THE CUSP OF BEING A LEGITIMATE SUPER BOWL CONTENDER. QB IS THEIR WEAKEST POSITION BY FAR. WEATHER OR NOT THEY END UP RENTING ROMO, I THINK THEY TAKE THE BEST QB AVAILABLE HERE. THEY ARE GOING TO NEED A BACKUP WITH A STARTING FUTURE IF THEY GET ROMO ANYWAY.

25.OAK
OAKLAND FINALLY GOT THEIR STUFF TOGETHER. THEY ARE QUICKLY BECOMING THE TEAM TO BEAT IN THE WEST. IF IT WASNT FOR THE INJURY CARR HAD, THEY MORE THAN LIKELY WOULD HAVE WON THE DIVISION THIS YEAR. NO WAY THE RAIDERS TAKE A QB HERE.

26.SEA
SEATTLE HAS BEEN A PERRENIAL PLAYOFF TEAM SINCE THEY TOOK RUSELL WILSON A FEW YEARS BACK. THEY HAVE BEEN TO TWO SUPER BOWLS AND WON ONE. I DONT THINK THERE IS ANY CHANCE THAT THEY TAKE A QB HERE.

ALL IN ALL,MY PREDICTION IS THAT THREE OF THE TOP FOUR QUARTERBACKS WILL BE OFF THE BOARD AT 27 I THINK IF THE CHIEFS WANT EITHER MAHOMES OR TRUBISKY THEY WOULD HAVE TO JUMP UP IN FRONT OF ARIZONA. WATSON IS A WILDCARD. HE COULD FALL INTO OUR LAPS, BUT I THINK WE AT MINIMUM HAVE TO JUMP OVER HOUSTON TO THE 23 SPOT. I DONT KNOW HOW YOU GUYS FEEL ABOUT KIZER, BUT I PERSONALLY AM NOT A HUGE FAN. THAT BEING SAID, I DONT THINK WE
WOULD HAVE TO MOVE UP TO GET HIM.
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Old 03-20-2017, 09:56 PM   #2
Mr_Tomahawk Mr_Tomahawk is offline
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Old 03-20-2017, 11:24 PM   #3
bigjosh006 bigjosh006 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk View Post
Oh thank god you used your caps lock.


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Haha, sorry about that. I wrote it on notepad and the caps lock was off, when i transferred it somehow it was formatted with all caps.

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Old 03-21-2017, 02:03 AM   #4
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I dunno what to expect...seems that there are always teams who are generally perceived as QB needy that end up not selecting a QB for a couple rounds and there also seem to be some wildcard teams that select a QB who we didn't expect to. This year seems so unpredictable.
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Old 03-21-2017, 01:37 PM   #5
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i like your breakdown and agree with most everything you say.

If i had to guess, everyone except the JETS@6 in the top10 pass on QB in round1. instead i think they either take their chances in round 2, or gamble on a trade up in front of KC, maybe even houston. now if we see those QB "maybe" teams trade back in the 1st round, then it all changes.

outside the top10 i do expect cle@12 and hou@24 to grab QBs, so that would put us #4 in the selection, assuming we stay put @27 and nobody jumps us @25/26.

i'm not interested in kizer myself, and it sounds like trubisky is more often the top rated guy, so watson or mahomes would be the target to get in front of houston. if dorsey/reid are so inclined...

i'll take it a step further i do not expect davis webb to still be sitting there @59. all those top10 teams that dont see value in round 1 will be salivating to take a swing early in round 2. dont think webb or kaaya make it halfway through 2nd round, maybe not even peterman.

there is one hope (for me anyway) that somebody above us in 1st likes kizer, which could push mahomes/watson down closer to us.
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Old 03-21-2017, 04:06 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ct View Post
i like your breakdown and agree with most everything you say.

If i had to guess, everyone except the JETS@6 in the top10 pass on QB in round1. instead i think they either take their chances in round 2, or gamble on a trade up in front of KC, maybe even houston. now if we see those QB "maybe" teams trade back in the 1st round, then it all changes.

outside the top10 i do expect cle@12 and hou@24 to grab QBs, so that would put us #4 in the selection, assuming we stay put @27 and nobody jumps us @25/26.

i'm not interested in kizer myself, and it sounds like trubisky is more often the top rated guy, so watson or mahomes would be the target to get in front of houston. if dorsey/reid are so inclined...

i'll take it a step further i do not expect davis webb to still be sitting there @59. all those top10 teams that dont see value in round 1 will be salivating to take a swing early in round 2. dont think webb or kaaya make it halfway through 2nd round, maybe not even peterman.

there is one hope (for me anyway) that somebody above us in 1st likes kizer, which could push mahomes/watson down closer to us.
I think Mahomes may be the top QB on a lot of these teams boards. I know that Trubiski is what the media is pushing as the top dog, but front offices have to know how much higher the ceiling is with Mahomes. There are a lot of mixed reviews on Watson, kind of like Bridgewater or Mariota a few years back. I would take him in a heartbeat.
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Old 03-22-2017, 08:02 AM   #7
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we've got so much capital to spend, if, and i know it's a bit IF, dorsey/reid see a guy they really like, hope they don't play games and just pull the trigger and do it! move up and get him, don't sit and take what's left.
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Old 04-01-2017, 10:02 PM   #8
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I will be ecstatic if we get Mahomes or Watson I won't be that mad if it's Kizer
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Old 04-02-2017, 01:15 AM   #9
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I will be ecstatic if we get Mahomes or Watson I won't be that mad if it's Kizer
I'm really questioning if Watson is the guy for us.

The 49 MPH throwing velocity is troubling when 55 is the average
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Old 04-02-2017, 06:07 AM   #10
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I'm really questioning if Watson is the guy for us.

The 49 MPH throwing velocity is troubling when 55 is the average
This...and Tyrod Taylor being the "exception." It's like, "ok, how much better am I actually supposed to feel about this just because Tyrod Taylor had a similar MPH?" The dude hasn't been a world-beater. And watching Watson, he does seem to throw his share of floaty, wobbly looking things.
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Old 04-02-2017, 06:52 AM   #11
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I agree and have said this all along. the top 4 are gone at 27. dorsey won't trade up. they will get a day one position starter at 27 though . QB will be rd 4. Sorry.

Might as well just pick up Manziel.
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Old 04-02-2017, 06:42 PM   #12
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3 Qbs in the 1st this year.
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