If the Chiefs go 8-8 or better 49ers get a 2nd round pick.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

A third- or second-rounder from Kansas City, the remnant of the Alex Smith deal. Now it can be told: The second draft choice San Francisco will receive from the Smith deal will be K.C.'s second-rounder in 2014 if the Chiefs go 8-8 or better this season. It will be a third-rounder in 2014 if Kansas City is under .500 this season.

So: San Francisco will probably have first-, second- and four third-rounders next year. But if the Chiefs surprise, it'll more likely be a one, two twos and three threes. As we've seen, GM Trent Baalke is dangerous with extra picks in his hands. If Colin Kaepernick is very good, the Niners should be annual contenders for years with the picks laid out that way.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2SWCd8Gea

[BigCatDaddy]

And for the dumbasses that want to compare Smith to Green. Trent acutally had his best QB rating in the season with the most attempts. Nearly 35 att/game and had a QBR of 95.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

In prior years, Alex definitely threw a lot of underneath dump-offs to the backs. It was clear to most that in 2012, he was making far more outside throws to his WRs.. getting them more involved. There will definitely be some clear-out dumps to the backs.. and they will probably work well. I'd say that Alex definitely improved in getting away from so many dump-offs though.

"far more?"

I just ran some numbers from the regular season during Smith's "great" years.

In 2011, 1949 of Smith's 3144 passing yards went to WRs. That's 62 percent.

In 2012, as a starter, 1170 of Smith's 1751 passing yards went to WRs. That's 66.82 percent.

If Smith had played a full season in 2012 (rather than getting benched), he projects to have thrown 2340 yards to his WRs (out of 3502).

The percent increase - 4.82 percent - would have accounted for an extra 169 yards to WRs, compared to 2011 rates.

I wouldn't call that "far more." I'd call that an insignificant increase.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

"far more?"

I just ran some numbers from the regular season during Smith's "great" years.

The percent increase - 4.82 percent - would have accounted for an extra 169 yards to WRs, compared to 2011 rates.

I wouldn't call that "far more." I'd call that an insignificant increase.

Eh... very well. If those numbers are accurate, then fine. Sure seemed like he threw more outside passes to his WRs... but okay.

[RunKC]

Interesting that Smith was top 10 in a lot of stats his last 2 years in SF such as: QBR, accuracy, fewest INT's and yards per completion.
No reason to think he can't do that here. We have one of the more talented offense's in the league (at least on paper).

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by RunKC

We have one of the more talented offense's in the league (at least on paper).

No, we don't.

And his stats were compiled in a run-first offense backed by a top 15 defense...

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

So you can see the frustration of giving up basically a 1st round pick for a guy that only is successful when asked to do less?

I have no problem with fans being unhappy about the compensation. I get it. Fans adore their draft picks. The only question will be, can Alex do more when asked to? That can be debated between the glass half fulls and empties. None of it means much until they take the field.

The 49ers had a plan and asked Alex to do what he did... so he did. Did they ask so little of him because they felt he couldn't do more? Did they ask what they did of him because our offense was in its infant stages and many didn't understand the playbook? so they had to crawl before they could walk? I'm sure there are many differing answers to those questions.

I feel like Harbaugh in 2011 was protecting all of the offensive players by keeping things balanced and simple. To an extent, he did the same in 2012. I remember reports stating that our OC was slowly installing piece by piece of the offense week by week.

I still have questions about whether Alex can often enough roar back when the team is faced with a large deficit in points. He has done it, but has also faltered at times in this. My hope is that KC is fairly strong in other, non-QB aspects. If they are? They will not fall so far behind.

I didn't expect Alex to get so much in trade as the Chiefs gave... but I am one who believes he will be worth it. It's pretty clear that Reid got his guy and wasn't gonna chance not getting him. Now all that's left is to move forward and see how it all works out.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Interesting that Smith was top 10 in a lot of stats his last 2 years in SF such as: QBR, accuracy, fewest INT's and yards per completion.
No reason to think he can't do that here. We have one of the more talented offense's in the league (at least on paper).

You're pretty dense aren't you?

I just blew Alex Smith out of the ****ing water to the point I made myself depressed and you are still clinging to his dinghy.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

You're pretty dense aren't you?

I just blew Alex Smith out of the ****ing water and you are still clinging to his dingy.

You did? By reciting a few cherry picked stats and ignoring everything else?

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by Rausch

No, we don't.

And his stats were compiled in a run-first offense backed by a top 15 defense...

I like the playmakers and OT's we have.

And you think they won't make a similar system for the QB to succeed?

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Interesting that Smith was top 10 in a lot of stats his last 2 years in SF such as: QBR, accuracy, fewest INT's and yards per completion.
No reason to think he can't do that here. We have one of the more talented offense's in the league (at least on paper).

And San Francisco was 29th in 3rd down conversion rate despite that "awesome" performance by Smith in 2011. They were converting at 37.7 percent with Smith as the starter this season, which would have been good for a whopping 18th.

Smith's stats are a mirage. His accuracy and QBR numbers are inflated by his reliance on short, safe passes. QBs that throw short, safe passes primarily typically are going to have poor 3rd down conversion rates, because they don't make the "tough" throws into tight windows.

He did show significant progress on YPA in 2012... that's the one ray of hope for me. Though his willingness to complete a 4 yard pass on third and 10 rather than making a tough throw that might fall incomplete inflates that YPA.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by patteeu

You did? By reciting a few cherry picked stats and ignoring everything else?

Those aren't cherry picked. Trust me I was hoping the opposite was true and maybe he just needed more reps in the game to get into the flow.

What else is there to ignore? Mac's eye test that was also blown out of the water by Duncan?

Look, I know you Alex to be something he has never been. If you take Alex's history and Reid's history and try to combine those doesn't that seem like a recipe for disaster?

Let's not pretend like our defense is some elite defense either where Alex and just sit on a lead and hand the ball of to JC. It may get to that point, but right now it's not.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

And San Francisco was 29th in 3rd down conversion rate despite that "awesome" performance by Smith in 2011. They were converting at 37.5 percent with Smith as the starter this season, which would have been good for a whopping 18th.

Smith's stats are a mirage. His accuracy and QBR numbers are inflated by his reliance on short, safe passes. QBs that throw short, safe passes primarily typically are going to have poor 3rd down conversion rates, because they don't make the "tough" throws into tight windows.

He did show significant progress on YPA in 2012... that's the one ray of hope for me. Though his willingness to complete a 4 yard pass on third and 10 rather than making a tough throw that might fall incomplete inflates that YPA.

Feel to provide stats and links to breaking down that 3rd down conversion. How did our run game do when converting 3rds? If not better, does that then mean that Gore is teh suxxorz?

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

And San Francisco was 29th in 3rd down conversion rate despite that "awesome" performance by Smith in 2011. They were converting at 37.5 percent with Smith as the starter this season, which would have been good for a whopping 18th.

Smith's stats are a mirage. His accuracy and QBR numbers are inflated by his reliance on short, safe passes. QBs that throw short, safe passes primarily typically are going to have poor 3rd down conversion rates, because they don't make the "tough" throws into tight windows.

He did show significant progress on YPA in 2012... that's the one ray of hope for me. Though his willingness to complete a 4 yard pass on third and 10 rather than making a tough throw that might fall incomplete inflates that YPA.

And boom goes the dynamite.

But hey some guy in Dearborn won the powerball so I guess anything can happen. Hopey Changey guys!

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

I have no problem with fans being unhappy about the compensation. I get it. Fans adore their draft picks. The only question will be, can Alex do more when asked to? That can be debated between the glass half fulls and empties. None of it means much until they take the field.

The 49ers had a plan and asked Alex to do what he did... so he did. Did they ask so little of him because they felt he couldn't do more? Did they ask what they did of him because our offense was in its infant stages and many didn't understand the playbook? so they had to crawl before they could walk? I'm sure there are many differing answers to those questions.

I feel like Harbaugh in 2011 was protecting all of the offensive players by keeping things balanced and simple. To an extent, he did the same in 2012. I remember reports stating that our OC was slowly installing piece by piece of the offense week by week.

I still have questions about whether Alex can often enough roar back when the team is faced with a large deficit in points. He has done it, but has also faltered at times in this. My hope is that KC is fairly strong in other, non-QB aspects. If they are? They will not fall so far behind.

I didn't expect Alex to get so much in trade as the Chiefs gave... but I am one who believes he will be worth it. It's pretty clear that Reid got his guy and wasn't gonna chance not getting him. Now all that's left is to move forward and see how it all works out.

And that's what Andy Reid is gambling on (bolded).

As BigCatDaddy has pointed out, there is nothing to support this gamble other than hope (that Harbaugh and Reid are capable of "fixing" Smith, and that he is now capable of throwing 30+ times a game and finding success).

[Mother****erJones]

Alex is a top 18 QB that's good until we groom Bray