New Apple Tablet

[dirk digler]

Cool stuff. On Engadget live right now

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/l...est&refresh=30

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

Do you mean this virtual tour?

Seems to work on my iPad2....

That's actually pretty impressive.. I thought the "work around" apps for Flash only played video. Does it let you actually use the controls in the tour? Or is it non-interactive?

Doesn't change the fact that it's a work around and the underlying fact is you are still using Flash.. it is still all over the web despite everyone telling me it was about to die (18 months ago)

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

But total adoption rate doesn't matter HERE because the issue at hand is Flash for MOBILE browsers.

Downloading an app is hardly jumping through hoops.

No, I can't. But I don't need or want to, either. I have been using iOS for well over a year now. The amount of times the lack of Flash has directly interfered with my enjoyment of the device or ability to use the web is about .00000001%.

It's revisionist history because no one said that Flash would die immediately. And it won't and hasn't. But the fact that Adobe has now discontinued it for mobile means that everyone saying Flash was dying were absolutely correct.

Even the TouchPad team said it was underpowered. They found that it ran twice as fast on the iPad 2 hardware.

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives...webos_ipad.php

Wrong about the impending demise of Flash? Are you in denial? Flash's impending demise for mobile has been confirmed by its creators. The fact that you continue to deny it is unreal.

OMG how am I supposed to take you seriously after a post like this? #1 you are missing the point on HTML5 as a standard... have you been drinking? You normally aren't this obtuse. If the web is split 50/50 on the standard... it WON'T MOVE FORWARD... Christ, do you think there is a separate HTML5 for mobile? If the entire web doesn't have adoption of HTML5 then it doesn't matter if mobile browsing is 99% iOS. NOW do you see the point? HTML5 DID NOT GET ADOPTED LIKE THE APPLE FANBOIS SAID IT WOULD. It will eventually, I said that... it's just slow going.

Do we need to drag up all the old posts? I don't recall if it was you but PLENTY of people touted HTML5 and how it would render Flash obsolete... and they were saying it 18+ months ago. Do you deny that? THEY WERE WRONG! PERIOD! You can't place a bet on the Chiefs winning next week and then when they finally win 4 weeks from now claim it as being right.

I have said all along that HTML5 will replace Flash.. the argument was over timing... now that it's a YEAR AND HALF LATER.. I think I was proven right.

Find where I once denied Flash would someday go away? I have said it all along... and I fully expect in 2-3 years I won't be using Flash on my phone unless Adobe does a 180 (very likely).. and even then HOPEFULLY HTML5 adoption will have progressed.

I don't find the Touchpad to be underpowered... but I'll concede that point if you'll stay on topic.

I'm seriously disappointed.. you are normally far smarter than this.. your last post was borderline moronic.

Oh and one last thing... we must be VERY different web users because I use Flash on my phone or tablet almost EVERY SINGLE DAY. I would posit that you have dumbed down and limited your browsing because of iOS.

[Silock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

OMG how am I supposed to take you seriously after a post like this? #1 you are missing the point on HTML5 as a standard... have you been drinking? You normally aren't this obtuse. If the web is split 50/50 on the standard... it WON'T MOVE FORWARD... Christ, do you think there is a separate HTML5 for mobile? If the entire web doesn't have adoption of HTML5 then it doesn't matter if mobile browsing is 99% iOS. NOW do you see the point? HTML5 DID NOT GET ADOPTED LIKE THE APPLE FANBOIS SAID IT WOULD. It will eventually, I said that... it's just slow going.

If one is growing, and the other is shrinking, how is it not moving forward, even if the split is currently 50/50? Adobe is moving to HTML5. Internet Explorer won't support Flash, and will use HTML5. Google is moving away from Flash to HTML5. One is in the ascendancy, the other is not. So, how did it not get adopted? The major sites are HTML5 compatible, and the list is continually growing. Facebook is committed to HTML5 because of the mobile marketshare. Hell, I watched the US Open streaming in Safari on my iPad a few months ago. HTML5 adoption is fine.

Do we need to drag up all the old posts? I don't recall if it was you but PLENTY of people touted HTML5 and how it would render Flash obsolete... and they were saying it 18+ months ago. Do you deny that? THEY WERE WRONG! PERIOD! You can't place a bet on the Chiefs winning next week and then when they finally win 4 weeks from now claim it as being right.

Do it. No one said it would die immediately. I JUST said that, but you ignored it.

I have said all along that HTML5 will replace Flash.. the argument was over timing... now that it's a YEAR AND HALF LATER.. I think I was proven right.

LOL Whatever, man.

Find where I once denied Flash would someday go away?

Don't twist my words. I never said that, specifically.

I don't find the Touchpad to be underpowered... but I'll concede that point if you'll stay on topic.

You're the one that brought it up.

I'm seriously disappointed.. you are normally far smarter than this.. your last post was borderline moronic.

Ah, yes, I was wondering when we'd get to the ad hominem phase of the discussion. Instead of calling it moronic or other extremely clever names, why don't you try and rationally discuss it?

Oh and one last thing... we must be VERY different web users because I use Flash on my phone or tablet almost EVERY SINGLE DAY.

I am the 99%.

I would posit that you have dumbed down and limited your browsing because of iOS.

I would posit that you don't what the **** you're talking about.

[DaFace]

You guys care WAY too much about this stuff.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

If one is growing, and the other is shrinking, how is it not moving forward, even if the split is currently 50/50? Adobe is moving to HTML5. Internet Explorer won't support Flash, and will use HTML5. Google is moving away from Flash to HTML5. One is in the ascendancy, the other is not. So, how did it not get adopted? The major sites are HTML5 compatible, and the list is continually growing. Facebook is committed to HTML5 because of the mobile marketshare. Hell, I watched the US Open streaming in Safari on my iPad a few months ago. HTML5 adoption is fine.

NO ONE argued that HTML5 wasn't going to replace Flash... NO ONE. The argument was adoption rates... and if you HONESTLY think the adoption rate has been "fine" than at the current pace... you will have serious HTML5 coverage in what? 10 years? HTML5 adoption has been a MASSIVE disappoint so far... the fact that there are two competing video standards that are split 50/50 illustrates that point.

Do it. No one said it would die immediately. I JUST said that, but you ignored it.

HUH? Not following your rebuttal here. But people most certainly said that it was going away and maybe I just inferred that they meant sometime within the next year or two... seeing that the average Flash version lasts 1-2 years and they are about to release a new one for mobile... it looks like it will be obsolete 3-4 years from when this debate emerged...

LOL Whatever, man.

WTF??? THIS is the argument... I'll put some posts at the bottom of this post to show that was what was being argued ALL ALONG. HOW DO YOU NOT REMEMBER THIS FACT?

You're right, I should have said nightly Safari. Same difference.

I'm still going to side with the fact you're short selling HTML 5's adoption rate.

This next post was pretty spot on...

Originally Posted by AustinChief

The problem is that since webkit doesn't support drag and drop... Chrome had to put in their own implentation... Safari will likely do the same.. at which point Google will need to go back and program in support for Safari (since none of it is standardized yet)

So, let's assume Safari's developers get cracking and next month release an update that supports drag/drop. That will then need to go to Google's developers for them to add gmail drag/drop Safari-style support... so let's add another month...

..and this is just ONE feature/aspect of HTML5... I stated 2 weeks ago that it will be 12-18 months (at best) before html5 sees enough adoption to matter... so I will revise it to 12-18 months minus 2 weeks...

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Just the humor of it... Google could destroy them without much effort.

In reality, Apple will probably jump on the WebM bandwagon at the last minute and be fine... just because Google released WebM doesn't mean we'll see much of it soon... just like I said about h.264, it's a long way from truly replacing Flash video.

UH OH! Here we have a post by you

WOW, Jobs sold you a bill of goods... HTML5 is a LONG LONG LONG way off from any kind of "replace flash" scenario...

I'm all for HTML5 to be ready and going... but the fact is.. it is NOT EVEN CLOSE. The standard is still in working draft status and there are a TON of heated arguments left to get settled before it is usable .. hell, they can't even agree on what video standards to support. (they leave it up to each browser currently)

We are talking years for a full phase out of flash for HTML5.. you'll see spotty, quirky, buggy rollouts before then... but nothing like what Jobs is promising.

Take a look at it's current state of adoption in current browser engines... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compari...engines_(HTML5)

Here you do say it won't be overnight but "soon" .. I am gonna assume soon is not 24-48 months?

Originally Posted by Silock

Mass adoption of HTML5, especially from companies like Apple, will speed things up tremendously. I didn't say it was going to be overnight or anything, but up until now, there has been no real impetus to move to HTML5 quickly. There will be soon.

I'm not saying that in a few months, Flash will be replaced entirely by HTML5. What I AM saying is that for many thing, it simply won't matter, especially if companies just make their own iPad application.

It looks like KC Fish agreed with me that Flash was gonna die a loooong sloooooow death...

Originally Posted by KC Fish

And you may think Flash is being phased out, but it's still going to be around for a long time. Along with Hulu, you also can't view webpages from ESPN, Disney, Miniclip, JibJab, or Kongregate, just to name a few popular ones. By the time HTML5 actually catches on and is viable for the majority of websites, the iPad will be old news. It's not like any websites are going to make an overnight switch to HTML5.

I'm sure you will argue that HTML5 is all over the place and most of the major sites have moved to it... I will agree that there was a bump to HTML5 right away and then it stalled out. There is still a TON of the web that hasn't even sniffed HTML5. I do this for a living and I can tell you that HTML5 adoption has been a HUGE disappointment in the industry. Hell, something like 40% of web users don't even have HTML5 compatible browsers!

[AustinChief]

http://jejacks0n.github.com/mercury/ THIS is how I know HTML5 is still not ready for prime time (although I wish it was!)

I wanted to use this editor on a project for a client and couldn't because it won't work with Internet Explorer because they have yet to implement an important part of HTML5.

As I predicted.. HTML5 adoption over the last 18 months has been spotty at best. It would be in the best interest of everyone if that wasn't the case but WISHING for it doesn't make it reality.

[Silock]

You really want to play this game? Fine. Don't cherry pick the statements.

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I'm talking, the kind of "ready" where MOST professional sites (the CNNs, ESPNs, NFL.coms) are using it.

Who here thinks that 90% of those type of sites will have completely phased out FLASH by 2011? ANYONE?

2012? MAYBE...

They were far ahead of your schedule in providing HTML5 content, although they haven't all stopped using Flash completely.

My timetable was clear:

Originally Posted by Silock

They don't have to stop using Flash, merely provide some kind of alternative. So, I won't bet on stopping using it. Providing a decent alternative, I will say 2nd quarter next year.
Posted via Mobile Device

Timetable: Hit.

Originally Posted by AustinChief

90% of the top 100 provide a decent alternative by Q2 next year ??? I'll take that bet! And again, this CAN NOT be a seperate app. I'm sorry but there are some sites I check once a month, I'm not going to download an app for that... MOST PEOPLE won't.

btw.. you do realize that makes the Ipad a piece of crap for a user like me until a full YEAR from now... my GUESS is quite a few nicer FLASH supporting devices will have passed it by then...

but back to the bet...

And then we had another argument about creating a bookmark for a webpage vs. an app. Obviously, I said that downloading an app wasn't an issue, and offered several advantages over a webpage. You took the opposite.

Also, note that the iPad still hasn't been surpassed by other devices.

[Silock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

http://jejacks0n.github.com/mercury/ THIS is how I know HTML5 is still not ready for prime time (although I wish it was!)

I wanted to use this editor on a project for a client and couldn't because it won't work with Internet Explorer because they have yet to implement an important part of HTML5.

As I predicted.. HTML5 adoption over the last 18 months has been spotty at best. It would be in the best interest of everyone if that wasn't the case but WISHING for it doesn't make it reality.

That's fine, but it sorta misses the bigger concept, here. When it comes down to it, this whole debate has been about the viability of the iPad, and subsequently iOS, as a browsing/internet machine. The issues about Flash vs. HTML5 are somewhat superfluous, considering that they don't REALLY matter so long as the device can access the content in a reasonable manner. And judging by the marketshare of iOS devices, I'd say that they do the job very well. Perfectly? No. But they do well enough that people get by. Just because the webpage may not have HTML5 doesn't mean that it is inaccessible to an iOS device, and that's what really matters as it pertains to this thread.

I think this whole discussion has become too bogged down in details.

[Great Expectations]

There are an awed up lot of sweet lemons for sale just North of San Antonio.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

Timetable: Hit.

here is where you were wrong... you did NOT hit any timetable and as my next post pointed out... without a separate app (which is a suck ass approach) 90% of the top 100 were NOT fully iPad compliant ... hell I doubt they are even now. Yes parts of some are... even some of the big ones are fully there... but you'd think by now they'd ALL have an alternative according to your predictions...

I think the disconnect here is that you use about 1% of what I use on the web... I use far far far too many sites where if you don't have Flash they just don't work well. I wish that wasn't true but it is.

To claim some sort of "I told you so" about Flash's demise 18 MONTHS after the original debate (where I even predicted an 18-24 month timeframe) is just ridiculous.

I predicted we'd have Flash and NEED an OS with it to access the entire web for at least 18 months.. and I was right. It's in black and white, how are you not seeing this?

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Great Expectations

There are an awed up lot of sweet lemons for sale just North of San Antonio.

huh? engrish please!

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

That's fine, but it sorta misses the bigger concept, here. When it comes down to it, this whole debate has been about the viability of the iPad, and subsequently iOS, as a browsing/internet machine. The issues about Flash vs. HTML5 are somewhat superfluous, considering that they don't REALLY matter so long as the device can access the content in a reasonable manner. And judging by the marketshare of iOS devices, I'd say that they do the job very well. Perfectly? No. But they do well enough that people get by. Just because the webpage may not have HTML5 doesn't mean that it is inaccessible to an iOS device, and that's what really matters as it pertains to this thread.

I think this whole discussion has become too bogged down in details.

Ok, back on topic then.. I still contend that an iPad is almost USELESS to a user like me... there is far too much that I can NOT do on an iPad that I can on a touchpad or my phone.

I honestly thought by now or at least in the next 6 months(18-24 months from original debate)... that wouldn't be the case... that by NOW HTML5 would have caught up and it would be a viable standard that would be seriously getting adopted across the board. I thought by now an iPad would be useful even for me... I was wrong .. it's still a piece of crap for me... maybe in another year or two.

[AustinChief]

Here are some sites to illustrate my point...

nbc.com (need an app)
xhamster.com (PORN!)
mint.com (not even an app)
megavideo (nada)
fox.com (I think they have an app)

Yes quite a few others got on board with HTML5... but here we are 18 months later and some BIG BOYS have not.

[Silock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

here is where you were wrong... you did NOT hit any timetable and as my next post pointed out... without a separate app (which is a suck ass approach) 90% of the top 100 were NOT fully iPad compliant ... hell I doubt they are even now. Yes parts of some are... even some of the big ones are fully there... but you'd think by now they'd ALL have an alternative according to your predictions...

Again, no. Just... no. That is all totally incorrect.

Nowhere did I say without an app, nor did I even hint that they'd ALL have it. And can you show me that I'm incorrect in my assertion now?

To claim some sort of "I told you so" about Flash's demise 18 MONTHS after the original debate (where I even predicted an 18-24 month timeframe) is just ridiculous.

So, why are you doing it?

Again, you have failed to point out where anyone said it would be overnight, or that it wouldn't take time.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Silock

Nowhere did I say without an app, nor did I even hint that they'd ALL have it. Again, no. Just... no. That is all totally incorrect.



So, why are you doing it?

Again, you have failed to point out where anyone said it would be overnight, or that it wouldn't take time.

WOW.. even with the posts right there..

Let's leave apps out of the equation (even though I clearly stated BACK then that it had to be HTML5 not an app)
you said Q2, you were wrong. I agree no one said overnight... You said Q2 and it's STILL not there yet.. as I just pointed out there are far too many sites with neither HTML5 nor an app.

The crux of this argument is simple.. you and others said Flash was dying.. I agreed.. I said it would take a VERY long time.. you and others told me I was wrong... the only timetable I see that YOU put out there was Q2 (which was 12 months away at that point) I said 18-24 months. I've got about 6 more months before I will be wrong on HTML5 adoption as well!

I'm pretty sure I was right. Yes, you had SOME adoption of HTML5 right away but then it stalled out in a major way. It's not even as far along as I thought it'd be at this point.