Looking to Houston

[OldSchool]

Now that Smith has been extended, we can move on to Justin Houston. With JJ Watt reportedly getting paid $100 mil for 6 years as one of the league's most dominant 3-4 DEs, how does that affect Justin Houston's outlook?

Watt is getting paid as a disruptor, for his ability to get to the QB and stop plays in the backfield. Justin Houston will get paid for a similar reason and is likely also looking at Mario Williams' deal as a barometer for his big pay day.

So the question is, if this is true and Houston is asking for something in the neighborhood of a 5-year $80 mil deal, would you give it to him or tell him to take a hike? What is the most that you would be willing to shell out to keep Houston on the roster? Would you rather just franchise him for 2 years straight while looking for a capable replacement through the draft?

Perhaps the real question we should be asking is: Would you rather pay for one "dominant" pass rusher (who has yet to crack into the 15 sack territory in his career) or have money to spend on a couple of good DBs while rolling with good to very good pass rushers in place of that one dominant guy (basically think what the Seahawks have with their pass rush by committee).

[chiefzilla1501]

The Chiefs have no cap space to pull this off. Wait until we can start negotiating a contract for the 2015 cap. With Watt setting the price, his price isn't going down. Worst case, if you can't get a long-term deal, then franchise him.

[Chiefnj2]

On defense you have a choice to focus your money on your secondary or pass rush. Seattle chose secondary. KC is going with pass rush. It doesn't mean one is right, or wrong. Since KC has focussed on pass rush, you pay your pass rushers.

[Infidel Goat]

I'm not opposed to signing Houston now, but it would have to come at a discount.

Houston knows we control him on a yearly basis for the next three years and that we can cut him on what amounts to a one year contract (for payment purposes) if he sustains a major injury during any of that time.

If he wants a big signing bonus and a little more economic security in the short term, he'll have to take a slightly undermarket deal of four or more years.

Tough position for him to be in, but that's the reality of it.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by Infidel Goat

I'm not opposed to signing Houston now, but it would have to come at a discount.

Houston knows we control him on a yearly basis for the next three years and that we can cut him on what amounts to a one year contract (for payment purposes) if he sustains a major injury during any of that time.

If he wants a big signing bonus and a little more economic security in the short term, he'll have to take a slightly undermarket deal of four or more years.

Tough position for him to be in, but that's the reality of it.

I never understood the idea of lowballing your star player. Good teams reward their good players. I'd rather have a star player who is happy and shows up to practices/camp then a disgruntled role model.

[John Dope]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Honestly? I'd like to see how Houston plays this year. Let him play balls out on a contract year. If he lights it up...you pay the man top dollar. If he disappoints, well....you've got leverage going into negotiations this off season.

Yep, that's what I think they'll do. He still has some things to prove imo.

[OldSchool]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

I never understood the idea of lowballing your star player. Good teams reward their good players. I'd rather have a star player who is happy and shows up to practices/camp then a disgruntled role model.

Houston needs to prove that he can actually perform at a high level on a consistent basis instead of just stockpiling stats against rookie RTs. Until he manages to get in the 15-20 sack range like Watt has gotten to and starts making more game changing plays, I don't see why he deserves the monster deal that Watt was clearly deserving of.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by TimBone

Honestly? I'd like to see how Houston plays this year. Let him play balls out on a contract year. If he lights it up...you pay the man top dollar. If he disappoints, well....you've got leverage going into negotiations this off season.

Agree fully with this. Also gives them some time to assess how well Ford is developing. If he can impress to the point where they feel they can move on instead of paying Houston... then that obviously saves them a bunch of cap.

If they can finagle the cap and pay him now? Hey, that wouldn't trouble me either. It's not like I want him off the team.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

Agree fully with this. Also gives them some time to assess how well Ford is developing. If he can impress to the point where they feel they can move on instead of paying Houston... then that obviously saves them a bunch of cap.

If they can finagle the cap and pay him now? Hey, that wouldn't trouble me either. It's not like I want him off the team.

Why do people feel it should be Ford or Houston? Ridiculous. The goal should be Houston AND Ford. The team doesn't get any better personnel wise letting an All Pro talent walk and trying to replace him. The goal should be keeping your young talent and adding to it, not a bizarre revolving door.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by OldSchool

How much would you be willing to pay him though? Upwards of $80 mil?

Twenty years ago? Yes.

In today's NFL? No.

Even though a top flight pass rusher is perceived as one of the most important cogs on a team, I think it's more important in today's NFL to build a more even talent level across the board versus pay what used to be the cornerstone positions such as OLB/Rush End and Left Offensive Tackle.

The one position that remains constant is the QB, though even Seattle showed that you don't necessarily have to have a top five statistical performer at the QB position to win the Super Bowl. (However, I believe that they are more the anomaly, the outlier to the norm.)

It's no longer the "I" formation, run/run/pass league it once was. Teams are all over the place offensively and defensively, switching players to either side, running amazingly varied offensive sets with regularity, etc. Having the one dedicated high-end pass rusher isn't as key as it was a couple of decades ago due to the continued use of spread offensive alignments, and it's my contention that, in fact, a stronger, more talented build through the middle is now more important to a teams defensive success than the older philosophy of building on the outside for the rush.

As an example, look at Carolina, Seattle, San Francisco, etc. Extremely strong through the middle (ILB/S positions) gives these teams the capability to defend against the multiple receiver sets, particularly the slot position which is becoming more and more utilized as well as the crossing rub plays that are en vogue.

Now, a player such as Luke Kuechly or Bobby Wagner is more important to modern NFL defensive success than a dedicated pass rusher.

[Coochie liquor]

Originally Posted by Rausch

This was exactly my point about the Smith deal and I was told it was a stupid idea...

I have always said we should sign Houston, and franchise A Smith for the next 2 years. That is a BIG price tag for Houston though, so using the tag on Houston was probably the better option. I don't know the financial part of it ,but sounds like giving Smith the contract we did and franchising Houston is the best option for now.

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

We need to keep him motivated this year by not signing him now and at the same time seeing what we have in Dee Ford. If he get's injured again it MAY reduce his price . In the end if he performs well then we can get a contract done or franchise him. If he's too greedy then we can't use him anyway. It won't be for the best interest of the team.

I actually agree with Hog Farmer. I like Houston, but there is no reason to sign him this early. Let him prove himself another season.

Same stance I took on Alex Smith.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Why do people feel it should be Ford or Houston? Ridiculous. The goal should be Houston AND Ford. The team doesn't get any better personnel wise letting an All Pro talent walk and trying to replace him. The goal should be keeping your young talent and adding to it, not a bizarre revolving door.

I sure don't disagree with you, really. I wasn't thinking much about Hali.. but he will either have to take a pay-cut or be cut loose. So if they can find a way, sure.. pay Houston. If not, tag him next year. There are a few scenarios at play... all of them not ideal.

1. Go through 2014 as is.. then Hali takes a pay-cut or is cut loose in 2015.

If cut loose, that's 8 million right there that can go to Houston's new contract.

Will Houston want to remain a Chief and not test the market? Doesn't matter... can TAG. Then, KC roles with Houston and Ford... probably drafts a mid-rd OLB.

2. Find a way to manage the cap where they can extend Houston now. Keeps his 2014 cap hit reasonable, but gets some of that bonus prorated.

Same situation for Hali... cut in pay or cut loose. then they either have their trio back, or Hali is gone and then replaced by a draft pick.. fairly high.

3. Same deal for Hali.. cut loose or pay-cut... but this time, KC chooses to let Houston walk. Maybe Ford is looking good?

So KC saves a bunch of cap room... has only Ford, maybe paycut Hali... and then has to put a real urgency on finding a new pass rush LB via draft or FA.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

Then say he's injury prone, but don't say he hasn't proven himself. A healthy Houston was a beast last year.

Against rookie right tackles early in the season. Otherwise, he was pretty pedestrian.

If people were advocating a "wait and see" approach with Alex Smith and extending him, that most certainly should apply to Houston.

As of right now, for his first three years in the league, he's been a 10 sack, 45 tackle guy with a single forced fumble and a handful of passes defensed per year. That's not an 80 million dollar contract performance.

At this point, Houston is more comparable to a guy like Cliff Avril than anything. Size, numbers, etc. They are damn near identical in fact, and Avril is currently playing under a two year $13 million dollar contract for the Seahawks.

I would find that more acceptable numbers based on performance than the $80 million dollar tag being bandied about in this thread.

[Quesadilla Joe]

I wouldn't want to give Houston half of Watt's deal, but that's probably what he's worth. If he's asking for more than that then I'd let him go elsewhere.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Rausch

This was exactly my point about the Smith deal and I was told it was a stupid idea...

I think the Smith deal is a different story. QB is so much more important to secure . Smith has already proven himself the last 3 years 33-9-1 . He follows only Manning , Brady and Rogers in winning %. Can't let that get away.

Now if Johnny Manziel had slipped by Cleveland it would have been different. smith could play out his last year and then we'd have our Franchise QB ready to rock and roll.