Crow's Needs Assessment with Mock

kccrow · 03-16-2014, 05:38 PM

Call me a bit taken aback by the offseason so far, but lets look at what KC has done (notables, not fodder).

Add/Re-Sign
DT Vance Walker
ILB Joe Mays
OLB Frank Zombo
FS Husain Abdullah
OG/OT Jeff Linkebach
LS Thomas Gafford

Release/Let Walk
LT Branden Albert
RG Jon Asamoah
RG/RT Geoff Schwartz
SS/KR Quintin Demps
SWR Dexter McCluster

What we can guess...
It looks as though though DeVito and Walker will start at defensive end with Allen Bailey and Mike Catapano (undersized) still coming off the bench. The Chiefs were up and down on Jerrell Powe all season, so depth here remains an issue.

It certainly appears the Chiefs signed Joe Mays to replace Akeem Jordan at ILB. Nico Johnson will compete with Mays, but throwing 6 million at a Mays doesn't show me they are ready to hand the keys to Johnson. Depth could be a problem with only James-Michael Johnson being the other backup on the inside.

Husain Abdullah may be the day 1 starter to replace Kendrick Lewis at FS. With Sanders Commings coming back from injury, he could push for the job. Are the Chiefs likely looking for a day 1 starter or will they just stand pat with what they have?

KC signed a versatile Jeff Linkenbach who can play OG or OT, similar to the signing of Geoff Schwartz last season. While it appears Linkenbach may replace Schwartz/Asamoah as the starter at RG, and Fisher and Stephenson will man the tackle spots, the Chiefs have depth issues. They are replacing 3 (Albert, Asamoah, Schwartz) with 1. The Chiefs will need to address offensive line in the draft. Adding to the problem of losing 3 lineman, Jeff Allen is one of the worst guards in football. As a rookie he rated the 3rd worst guard in all the NFL. In 2013 he rated out as #51. The Chiefs may never realize more than below average return on a relatively high investment, and Allen should be replaced at LG.

The fact that KC re-signed Frank Zombo as backup OLB means there is little waiting in the wings behind Houston and Hali. With Hali's contract continually growing, it won't be long before the Chiefs have to cut ties. I expect KC to bring in another pass rusher via the draft at this point.

I'm not a McCluster fan, but the fact is that KC let their 3rd most productive receiver walk. No matter how enamored Andy Reid and company may be with AJ Jenkins, the fact is the Chiefs have one somewhat productive receiver in Dwayne Bowe and a bunch of secondary options. Kansas City's flirtations with Joe Morgan and heavy interest in Emmanuel Sanders shows they have more than a passing interest in upgrading the position. The Chiefs will need to address the position in the draft at least once.

The release of Dunta Robinson was expected, but there is a hole at backup CB. While rookie CB Marcus Cooper looked good at times, one has to wonder if he is the long-term solution as a starter. There are also questions surrounding the long-term situation with Brandon Flowers, his contract, and whether he fits the defensive scheme. Sean Smith's contract also grows substantially heading into 2015. The Chiefs will need to address depth and may want to think seriously about grooming a starter.

The Chiefs allowed Quintin Demps to sign with the Giants. While Demps didn't contribute much, that also leaves a bare spot at backup SS and a hole in the Special Teams unit. You cannot underestimate the importance of players like Demps from a team contribution standpoint.

What we know so far is that the Chiefs, from a talent perspective, don't really sit any worse than where they left off in 2013 but they sure didn't gain anything (may have lost a tad) and there is quite a bit of work to do to gain any ground against division foes San Diego and Denver. While KC may yet sign some players, I'm not looking at them making any significant signings other than what could address depth.

What does all this tell us as far as needs? Well, here are needs in no specific order:

WR - Chiefs need a reliable, possession, #2. They have good situational depth in Avery and possibly Jenkins.

CB - Chiefs need a future starter to groom that can play in nickle and dime situations immediately.

SS - Chiefs need a backup that can contribute on special teams.

FS - Chiefs may need an upgraded starter. Abdullah is a very good backup that can come in on nickle and dime situations and be very effective. Can he return to being an effective starter is a question the Chiefs may want to answer. They also will want to know what Sanders Commings brings to the table. As of right now, my guess it that this is not a position as high up on the Chiefs' list of needs as it is on the fans'.

ILB - The Chiefs need upgraded backups, especially behind an aging Derrick Johnson

OLB - Chiefs need a future starter to groom that can provide immediate rotational depth.

DE - Chiefs need rotational depth that can also provide some pass rush ability.

OL - I'm grouping this together. KC needs a new starter at LG over Jeff Allen. They need a starter at RG. They need a backup at OT. Linkenbach can serve the role of RG starter and backup OT right now, but he shouldn't be counted on to be the long-term solution. Jeff Allen shouldn't be the solution to anything but the chopping block, but all signs point towards him remaining an option in 2014.

QB - Alex Smith isn't re-signed to a long-term deal and there isn't an heir in the wings. Something will need to be done eventually so I'm throwing this in there, but I'm not going to rank it high.

The Chiefs are not in a position to address every problem area in a single season. Reality says that upgrading at more than 1 position in the draft without a 2nd round pick is unlikely, but you just might fill two spots if you get lucky. You also might find some depth at two more positions. Pick your poison and go with it.

Here's my interpretation of the top 5 needs in order of importance:
1. Offensive Guard - No offensive line position is more important to me than guard. Guards are the most influential pieces in the run game because they open the creases inside and pull to pick up linebackers outside. They also keep the immediate pressure off of the quarterback. Right now, KC has two of the worst run blocking offensive lineman in the NFL set to start. While running the football isn't all that important, passing it is and neither of KCs guards rate very well as pass blockers either. This is a major problem, since I'd prefer to see Alex Smith stay upright. Letting Asamoah and Schwartz both go in the same offseason is a problem.

2. Cornerback - If KC is intent on signing Justin Houston long-term and re-signing Alex Smith to an extension at the end of 2014, then they'll likely have to part with at least one, and likely two, of the following three players: OLB Tamba Hali, CB Brandon Flowers, and CB Sean Smith. With two of three odds at the CB spot, I'm going to say KC will end up needing some help on the back end sooner than later. Add a CB or add a FS, it doesn't matter much schematically as the Chiefs spend a boatload of time outside of their base alignment. What they need is a pass defender that can tackle well, but can eventually start. My opinion is that a CB that can press cover on the outside is of more value to the defense overall. This is a position you draft towards now knowing it is a very likely problem later.

3. Outside Linebacker - One thing is certain, KC needs to re-sign Houston after 2014. If KC ends up in a franchise tag situation, that means Hali could be forced to exit. There is also no rotational depth to really bank on outside of Hali and Houston. Like cornerback, this is a position you can't just look at in the now.

4. Wide Receiver - Yes, it is obvious the Chiefs need help at WR, but as one of the better scoring teams in the league a year ago it is hard to argue that
the position tops the list. It would be nice to be better at the position, and I have no doubt Reid and Dorsey will address it, but I'm not confident they
will address it as early as the fan base hopes. I'd be more confident the Chiefs will select a receiver somewhere in round 3 or 4. After all, KC has their number 1 in Dwayne Bowe and really just need a reliable possession guy opposite him. If a top guy is there in round 1 that KC really likes, then perhaps they take him but I'm not betting the bank on a WR in round 1.

5. Free Safety - The Chiefs run a single-high safety which means they need to improve here, but they don't have to go all in. The most important attribute for a single-high safety is to be good in pass defense. A converted CB or rangy safety is fine. They dont' need a supurb tackler, but they do need an efficient one. I'm not convinced, yet, that KC will address this early. Honestly, Husain Abdullah may be the answer for the next couple of seasons.

My Needs-Based Mock Draft

1. OG Xavier Su'a Filo - UCLA
Su'a Filo is a plug and play left guard prospect. He gets good push in the run game, is solid setting up against the pass, and is superb blocking in space. Basically, Su'a Filo looks the part of an ideal left guard prospect. Moving Allen to a backup role is paramount to true success offensively.

3. CB Stanley Jean-Baptist - Nebraska
The future at cornerback on this team certainly is in question. Jean-Baptist can learn and get his feet wet this year in nickle and dime packages. Jean-
Baptist is certainly a guy that continues to improve, is solid in coverage, a good tackler, and relatively physical. His career path and size liken to
Richard Sherman, so one hopes that he continues that path.

4. WR Mike Davis - Texas
Davis is very underrated, he's a good route runner, good hands-catcher, good blocker, and has some speed to boot. If it weren't for horrendous quarterbacks, I think we'd be talking about Davis in the same light as guys like Marqise Lee. Davis should go earlier than this in my opinion, but I try to somewhat stick to general consensus for mocks.

5. LB Morgan Breslin - USC
Breslin is a good pass rusher and can play standing up. His injury hurt his stock else he'd probably be a day 2 item. If Breslin lasts this late, I'd take a flier on him. A combine snub, he ran a 4.75 40, lifted 26 times, and jumped 35.5 in the vertical at his USC Pro Day, if anyone is curious.

6. SS Brock Vereen - Minnesota
Vereen is a very intelligent and pretty good footall player. He has more athleticism than given credit for and I'd project him much like Husain Abdullah, as a guy that can play both SS and FS for a team. A good developmental player that could solve the problems at safety down the road.

6. OG Spencer Long - Nebraska
It looks as though Long will miss the 2014 season, but that doesn't mean you don't draft the kid and put him on IR. Long was due to likely be a Day 2 selection before his injury. I think you take a chance with a late round pick that you're going to have a starting RG prospect going into 2015 and beyond.

03-16-2014, 05:38 PM	Topic Starter
kccrow MVP Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Michigan Casino cash: $3327078	Crow's Needs Assessment with Mock Call me a bit taken aback by the offseason so far, but lets look at what KC has done (notables, not fodder). Add/Re-Sign DT Vance Walker ILB Joe Mays OLB Frank Zombo FS Husain Abdullah OG/OT Jeff Linkebach LS Thomas Gafford Release/Let Walk LT Branden Albert RG Jon Asamoah RG/RT Geoff Schwartz SS/KR Quintin Demps SWR Dexter McCluster What we can guess... It looks as though though DeVito and Walker will start at defensive end with Allen Bailey and Mike Catapano (undersized) still coming off the bench. The Chiefs were up and down on Jerrell Powe all season, so depth here remains an issue. It certainly appears the Chiefs signed Joe Mays to replace Akeem Jordan at ILB. Nico Johnson will compete with Mays, but throwing 6 million at a Mays doesn't show me they are ready to hand the keys to Johnson. Depth could be a problem with only James-Michael Johnson being the other backup on the inside. Husain Abdullah may be the day 1 starter to replace Kendrick Lewis at FS. With Sanders Commings coming back from injury, he could push for the job. Are the Chiefs likely looking for a day 1 starter or will they just stand pat with what they have? KC signed a versatile Jeff Linkenbach who can play OG or OT, similar to the signing of Geoff Schwartz last season. While it appears Linkenbach may replace Schwartz/Asamoah as the starter at RG, and Fisher and Stephenson will man the tackle spots, the Chiefs have depth issues. They are replacing 3 (Albert, Asamoah, Schwartz) with 1. The Chiefs will need to address offensive line in the draft. Adding to the problem of losing 3 lineman, Jeff Allen is one of the worst guards in football. As a rookie he rated the 3rd worst guard in all the NFL. In 2013 he rated out as #51. The Chiefs may never realize more than below average return on a relatively high investment, and Allen should be replaced at LG. The fact that KC re-signed Frank Zombo as backup OLB means there is little waiting in the wings behind Houston and Hali. With Hali's contract continually growing, it won't be long before the Chiefs have to cut ties. I expect KC to bring in another pass rusher via the draft at this point. I'm not a McCluster fan, but the fact is that KC let their 3rd most productive receiver walk. No matter how enamored Andy Reid and company may be with AJ Jenkins, the fact is the Chiefs have one somewhat productive receiver in Dwayne Bowe and a bunch of secondary options. Kansas City's flirtations with Joe Morgan and heavy interest in Emmanuel Sanders shows they have more than a passing interest in upgrading the position. The Chiefs will need to address the position in the draft at least once. The release of Dunta Robinson was expected, but there is a hole at backup CB. While rookie CB Marcus Cooper looked good at times, one has to wonder if he is the long-term solution as a starter. There are also questions surrounding the long-term situation with Brandon Flowers, his contract, and whether he fits the defensive scheme. Sean Smith's contract also grows substantially heading into 2015. The Chiefs will need to address depth and may want to think seriously about grooming a starter. The Chiefs allowed Quintin Demps to sign with the Giants. While Demps didn't contribute much, that also leaves a bare spot at backup SS and a hole in the Special Teams unit. You cannot underestimate the importance of players like Demps from a team contribution standpoint. What we know so far is that the Chiefs, from a talent perspective, don't really sit any worse than where they left off in 2013 but they sure didn't gain anything (may have lost a tad) and there is quite a bit of work to do to gain any ground against division foes San Diego and Denver. While KC may yet sign some players, I'm not looking at them making any significant signings other than what could address depth. What does all this tell us as far as needs? Well, here are needs in no specific order: WR - Chiefs need a reliable, possession, #2. They have good situational depth in Avery and possibly Jenkins. CB - Chiefs need a future starter to groom that can play in nickle and dime situations immediately. SS - Chiefs need a backup that can contribute on special teams. FS - Chiefs may need an upgraded starter. Abdullah is a very good backup that can come in on nickle and dime situations and be very effective. Can he return to being an effective starter is a question the Chiefs may want to answer. They also will want to know what Sanders Commings brings to the table. As of right now, my guess it that this is not a position as high up on the Chiefs' list of needs as it is on the fans'. ILB - The Chiefs need upgraded backups, especially behind an aging Derrick Johnson OLB - Chiefs need a future starter to groom that can provide immediate rotational depth. DE - Chiefs need rotational depth that can also provide some pass rush ability. OL - I'm grouping this together. KC needs a new starter at LG over Jeff Allen. They need a starter at RG. They need a backup at OT. Linkenbach can serve the role of RG starter and backup OT right now, but he shouldn't be counted on to be the long-term solution. Jeff Allen shouldn't be the solution to anything but the chopping block, but all signs point towards him remaining an option in 2014. QB - Alex Smith isn't re-signed to a long-term deal and there isn't an heir in the wings. Something will need to be done eventually so I'm throwing this in there, but I'm not going to rank it high. The Chiefs are not in a position to address every problem area in a single season. Reality says that upgrading at more than 1 position in the draft without a 2nd round pick is unlikely, but you just might fill two spots if you get lucky. You also might find some depth at two more positions. Pick your poison and go with it. Here's my interpretation of the top 5 needs in order of importance: 1. Offensive Guard - No offensive line position is more important to me than guard. Guards are the most influential pieces in the run game because they open the creases inside and pull to pick up linebackers outside. They also keep the immediate pressure off of the quarterback. Right now, KC has two of the worst run blocking offensive lineman in the NFL set to start. While running the football isn't all that important, passing it is and neither of KCs guards rate very well as pass blockers either. This is a major problem, since I'd prefer to see Alex Smith stay upright. Letting Asamoah and Schwartz both go in the same offseason is a problem. 2. Cornerback - If KC is intent on signing Justin Houston long-term and re-signing Alex Smith to an extension at the end of 2014, then they'll likely have to part with at least one, and likely two, of the following three players: OLB Tamba Hali, CB Brandon Flowers, and CB Sean Smith. With two of three odds at the CB spot, I'm going to say KC will end up needing some help on the back end sooner than later. Add a CB or add a FS, it doesn't matter much schematically as the Chiefs spend a boatload of time outside of their base alignment. What they need is a pass defender that can tackle well, but can eventually start. My opinion is that a CB that can press cover on the outside is of more value to the defense overall. This is a position you draft towards now knowing it is a very likely problem later. 3. Outside Linebacker - One thing is certain, KC needs to re-sign Houston after 2014. If KC ends up in a franchise tag situation, that means Hali could be forced to exit. There is also no rotational depth to really bank on outside of Hali and Houston. Like cornerback, this is a position you can't just look at in the now. 4. Wide Receiver - Yes, it is obvious the Chiefs need help at WR, but as one of the better scoring teams in the league a year ago it is hard to argue that the position tops the list. It would be nice to be better at the position, and I have no doubt Reid and Dorsey will address it, but I'm not confident they will address it as early as the fan base hopes. I'd be more confident the Chiefs will select a receiver somewhere in round 3 or 4. After all, KC has their number 1 in Dwayne Bowe and really just need a reliable possession guy opposite him. If a top guy is there in round 1 that KC really likes, then perhaps they take him but I'm not betting the bank on a WR in round 1. 5. Free Safety - The Chiefs run a single-high safety which means they need to improve here, but they don't have to go all in. The most important attribute for a single-high safety is to be good in pass defense. A converted CB or rangy safety is fine. They dont' need a supurb tackler, but they do need an efficient one. I'm not convinced, yet, that KC will address this early. Honestly, Husain Abdullah may be the answer for the next couple of seasons. My Needs-Based Mock Draft 1. OG Xavier Su'a Filo - UCLA Su'a Filo is a plug and play left guard prospect. He gets good push in the run game, is solid setting up against the pass, and is superb blocking in space. Basically, Su'a Filo looks the part of an ideal left guard prospect. Moving Allen to a backup role is paramount to true success offensively. 3. CB Stanley Jean-Baptist - Nebraska The future at cornerback on this team certainly is in question. Jean-Baptist can learn and get his feet wet this year in nickle and dime packages. Jean- Baptist is certainly a guy that continues to improve, is solid in coverage, a good tackler, and relatively physical. His career path and size liken to Richard Sherman, so one hopes that he continues that path. 4. WR Mike Davis - Texas Davis is very underrated, he's a good route runner, good hands-catcher, good blocker, and has some speed to boot. If it weren't for horrendous quarterbacks, I think we'd be talking about Davis in the same light as guys like Marqise Lee. Davis should go earlier than this in my opinion, but I try to somewhat stick to general consensus for mocks. 5. LB Morgan Breslin - USC Breslin is a good pass rusher and can play standing up. His injury hurt his stock else he'd probably be a day 2 item. If Breslin lasts this late, I'd take a flier on him. A combine snub, he ran a 4.75 40, lifted 26 times, and jumped 35.5 in the vertical at his USC Pro Day, if anyone is curious. 6. SS Brock Vereen - Minnesota Vereen is a very intelligent and pretty good footall player. He has more athleticism than given credit for and I'd project him much like Husain Abdullah, as a guy that can play both SS and FS for a team. A good developmental player that could solve the problems at safety down the road. 6. OG Spencer Long - Nebraska It looks as though Long will miss the 2014 season, but that doesn't mean you don't draft the kid and put him on IR. Long was due to likely be a Day 2 selection before his injury. I think you take a chance with a late round pick that you're going to have a starting RG prospect going into 2015 and beyond.
Posts: 12,576