Crow's Needs Assessment with Mock

[kccrow]

Call me a bit taken aback by the offseason so far, but lets look at what KC has done (notables, not fodder).

Add/Re-Sign
DT Vance Walker
ILB Joe Mays
OLB Frank Zombo
FS Husain Abdullah
OG/OT Jeff Linkebach
LS Thomas Gafford

Release/Let Walk
LT Branden Albert
RG Jon Asamoah
RG/RT Geoff Schwartz
SS/KR Quintin Demps
SWR Dexter McCluster

What we can guess...
It looks as though though DeVito and Walker will start at defensive end with Allen Bailey and Mike Catapano (undersized) still coming off the bench. The Chiefs were up and down on Jerrell Powe all season, so depth here remains an issue.

It certainly appears the Chiefs signed Joe Mays to replace Akeem Jordan at ILB. Nico Johnson will compete with Mays, but throwing 6 million at a Mays doesn't show me they are ready to hand the keys to Johnson. Depth could be a problem with only James-Michael Johnson being the other backup on the inside.

Husain Abdullah may be the day 1 starter to replace Kendrick Lewis at FS. With Sanders Commings coming back from injury, he could push for the job. Are the Chiefs likely looking for a day 1 starter or will they just stand pat with what they have?

KC signed a versatile Jeff Linkenbach who can play OG or OT, similar to the signing of Geoff Schwartz last season. While it appears Linkenbach may replace Schwartz/Asamoah as the starter at RG, and Fisher and Stephenson will man the tackle spots, the Chiefs have depth issues. They are replacing 3 (Albert, Asamoah, Schwartz) with 1. The Chiefs will need to address offensive line in the draft. Adding to the problem of losing 3 lineman, Jeff Allen is one of the worst guards in football. As a rookie he rated the 3rd worst guard in all the NFL. In 2013 he rated out as #51. The Chiefs may never realize more than below average return on a relatively high investment, and Allen should be replaced at LG.

The fact that KC re-signed Frank Zombo as backup OLB means there is little waiting in the wings behind Houston and Hali. With Hali's contract continually growing, it won't be long before the Chiefs have to cut ties. I expect KC to bring in another pass rusher via the draft at this point.

I'm not a McCluster fan, but the fact is that KC let their 3rd most productive receiver walk. No matter how enamored Andy Reid and company may be with AJ Jenkins, the fact is the Chiefs have one somewhat productive receiver in Dwayne Bowe and a bunch of secondary options. Kansas City's flirtations with Joe Morgan and heavy interest in Emmanuel Sanders shows they have more than a passing interest in upgrading the position. The Chiefs will need to address the position in the draft at least once.

The release of Dunta Robinson was expected, but there is a hole at backup CB. While rookie CB Marcus Cooper looked good at times, one has to wonder if he is the long-term solution as a starter. There are also questions surrounding the long-term situation with Brandon Flowers, his contract, and whether he fits the defensive scheme. Sean Smith's contract also grows substantially heading into 2015. The Chiefs will need to address depth and may want to think seriously about grooming a starter.

The Chiefs allowed Quintin Demps to sign with the Giants. While Demps didn't contribute much, that also leaves a bare spot at backup SS and a hole in the Special Teams unit. You cannot underestimate the importance of players like Demps from a team contribution standpoint.

What we know so far is that the Chiefs, from a talent perspective, don't really sit any worse than where they left off in 2013 but they sure didn't gain anything (may have lost a tad) and there is quite a bit of work to do to gain any ground against division foes San Diego and Denver. While KC may yet sign some players, I'm not looking at them making any significant signings other than what could address depth.

What does all this tell us as far as needs? Well, here are needs in no specific order:

WR - Chiefs need a reliable, possession, #2. They have good situational depth in Avery and possibly Jenkins.

CB - Chiefs need a future starter to groom that can play in nickle and dime situations immediately.

SS - Chiefs need a backup that can contribute on special teams.

FS - Chiefs may need an upgraded starter. Abdullah is a very good backup that can come in on nickle and dime situations and be very effective. Can he return to being an effective starter is a question the Chiefs may want to answer. They also will want to know what Sanders Commings brings to the table. As of right now, my guess it that this is not a position as high up on the Chiefs' list of needs as it is on the fans'.

ILB - The Chiefs need upgraded backups, especially behind an aging Derrick Johnson

OLB - Chiefs need a future starter to groom that can provide immediate rotational depth.

DE - Chiefs need rotational depth that can also provide some pass rush ability.

OL - I'm grouping this together. KC needs a new starter at LG over Jeff Allen. They need a starter at RG. They need a backup at OT. Linkenbach can serve the role of RG starter and backup OT right now, but he shouldn't be counted on to be the long-term solution. Jeff Allen shouldn't be the solution to anything but the chopping block, but all signs point towards him remaining an option in 2014.

QB - Alex Smith isn't re-signed to a long-term deal and there isn't an heir in the wings. Something will need to be done eventually so I'm throwing this in there, but I'm not going to rank it high.

The Chiefs are not in a position to address every problem area in a single season. Reality says that upgrading at more than 1 position in the draft without a 2nd round pick is unlikely, but you just might fill two spots if you get lucky. You also might find some depth at two more positions. Pick your poison and go with it.

Here's my interpretation of the top 5 needs in order of importance:
1. Offensive Guard - No offensive line position is more important to me than guard. Guards are the most influential pieces in the run game because they open the creases inside and pull to pick up linebackers outside. They also keep the immediate pressure off of the quarterback. Right now, KC has two of the worst run blocking offensive lineman in the NFL set to start. While running the football isn't all that important, passing it is and neither of KCs guards rate very well as pass blockers either. This is a major problem, since I'd prefer to see Alex Smith stay upright. Letting Asamoah and Schwartz both go in the same offseason is a problem.

2. Cornerback - If KC is intent on signing Justin Houston long-term and re-signing Alex Smith to an extension at the end of 2014, then they'll likely have to part with at least one, and likely two, of the following three players: OLB Tamba Hali, CB Brandon Flowers, and CB Sean Smith. With two of three odds at the CB spot, I'm going to say KC will end up needing some help on the back end sooner than later. Add a CB or add a FS, it doesn't matter much schematically as the Chiefs spend a boatload of time outside of their base alignment. What they need is a pass defender that can tackle well, but can eventually start. My opinion is that a CB that can press cover on the outside is of more value to the defense overall. This is a position you draft towards now knowing it is a very likely problem later.

3. Outside Linebacker - One thing is certain, KC needs to re-sign Houston after 2014. If KC ends up in a franchise tag situation, that means Hali could be forced to exit. There is also no rotational depth to really bank on outside of Hali and Houston. Like cornerback, this is a position you can't just look at in the now.

4. Wide Receiver - Yes, it is obvious the Chiefs need help at WR, but as one of the better scoring teams in the league a year ago it is hard to argue that
the position tops the list. It would be nice to be better at the position, and I have no doubt Reid and Dorsey will address it, but I'm not confident they
will address it as early as the fan base hopes. I'd be more confident the Chiefs will select a receiver somewhere in round 3 or 4. After all, KC has their number 1 in Dwayne Bowe and really just need a reliable possession guy opposite him. If a top guy is there in round 1 that KC really likes, then perhaps they take him but I'm not betting the bank on a WR in round 1.

5. Free Safety - The Chiefs run a single-high safety which means they need to improve here, but they don't have to go all in. The most important attribute for a single-high safety is to be good in pass defense. A converted CB or rangy safety is fine. They dont' need a supurb tackler, but they do need an efficient one. I'm not convinced, yet, that KC will address this early. Honestly, Husain Abdullah may be the answer for the next couple of seasons.

My Needs-Based Mock Draft

1. OG Xavier Su'a Filo - UCLA
Su'a Filo is a plug and play left guard prospect. He gets good push in the run game, is solid setting up against the pass, and is superb blocking in space. Basically, Su'a Filo looks the part of an ideal left guard prospect. Moving Allen to a backup role is paramount to true success offensively.

3. CB Stanley Jean-Baptist - Nebraska
The future at cornerback on this team certainly is in question. Jean-Baptist can learn and get his feet wet this year in nickle and dime packages. Jean-
Baptist is certainly a guy that continues to improve, is solid in coverage, a good tackler, and relatively physical. His career path and size liken to
Richard Sherman, so one hopes that he continues that path.

4. WR Mike Davis - Texas
Davis is very underrated, he's a good route runner, good hands-catcher, good blocker, and has some speed to boot. If it weren't for horrendous quarterbacks, I think we'd be talking about Davis in the same light as guys like Marqise Lee. Davis should go earlier than this in my opinion, but I try to somewhat stick to general consensus for mocks.

5. LB Morgan Breslin - USC
Breslin is a good pass rusher and can play standing up. His injury hurt his stock else he'd probably be a day 2 item. If Breslin lasts this late, I'd take a flier on him. A combine snub, he ran a 4.75 40, lifted 26 times, and jumped 35.5 in the vertical at his USC Pro Day, if anyone is curious.

6. SS Brock Vereen - Minnesota
Vereen is a very intelligent and pretty good footall player. He has more athleticism than given credit for and I'd project him much like Husain Abdullah, as a guy that can play both SS and FS for a team. A good developmental player that could solve the problems at safety down the road.

6. OG Spencer Long - Nebraska
It looks as though Long will miss the 2014 season, but that doesn't mean you don't draft the kid and put him on IR. Long was due to likely be a Day 2 selection before his injury. I think you take a chance with a late round pick that you're going to have a starting RG prospect going into 2015 and beyond.

[Direckshun]

Catapano is probably coming back at 290 lbs. Considering he's already 6'5" and strong as a mother****er, he ain't undersized.

Sorry, I haven't read the entire OP, just that one part. Will continue reading.

[Direckshun]

Man, I enjoyed this mock. Thanks for the great read.

1. If the Chiefs are going to go with a OG-CB 1-2 punch with their first two picks, which I agree is plenty likely, I'd rather them go CB in the first since there are three top-end corners. Gilbert and Dennard might not make it to us, but either possibly could. I also really like Verrett, who technique-wise is the best corner in this draft. I think Verrett-Cooper could be the equivalent of Flowers-Smith in 2015.

2. Really like the depth pickups of Mike Davis and Morgan Breslin. I think Breslin's the kind of guy who could provide quality depth and good special teams play for the entirety of his rookie contract. He's just too small and physically limited to be an eventual starter, and Dorsey doesn't draft for depth -- he drafts as if any of his players could be eventual starters. Breslin is only 6'1", 240 lbs, and only played as a down-lineman at USC. I think he has the highest motor in the draft, however.

3. I really hate SJB. I think he's a lousy defender. Not a fan.

[Sfeihc]

If the Chiefs take a G @ 23 this place will implode. Not that the CHIEFS don't really need one or two of them.

[Direckshun]

It's very possible, however.

Crow's not wrong -- right now, RG is the biggest hole we have on our roster and Linkenbach is not an answer.

I personally really like Rishaw Johnson and Eric Kush, but it's apparent that Dorsey does not.

And, well, we've seen Jeff Allen. I think Allen stays for another year, but then he nears the chopping block.

That said, I really can't stand it if the Chiefs go with a guard in the 1st. That'll give us an offensive line with two 1sts, two 2nds, and 1 3rd that still won't be worth a shit.

[planetdoc]

excellent read. thanks for putting the time into sharing your thoughts.

Originally Posted by kccrow

It looks as though though DeVito and Walker will start at defensive end with Allen Bailey and Mike Catapano (undersized) still coming off the bench. The Chiefs were up and down on Jerrell Powe all season, so depth here remains an issue.

dont forget about Jay Howard. I think he really "flashed" against SD. In that 1 game he was credited with 6 tackles. Although he might seem like JAG, he was a 4th round pick by Seatle, and is pretty athletic.

He ran the forty at the combine in 4.78 seconds at 301 lbs!! That is Aaron Donald type speed (who ran 4.68 @ 285 lbs).

Originally Posted by kccrow

It certainly appears the Chiefs signed Joe Mays to replace Akeem Jordan at ILB. Nico Johnson will compete with Mays, but throwing 6 million at a Mays doesn't show me they are ready to hand the keys to Johnson. Depth could be a problem with only James-Michael Johnson being the other backup on the inside.

James Michael Johnson got more snaps than Nico Johnson. I think he is ahead of Nico.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Husain Abdullah may be the day 1 starter to replace Kendrick Lewis at FS. With Sanders Commings coming back from injury, he could push for the job. Are the Chiefs likely looking for a day 1 starter or will they just stand pat with what they have?

I dont think its necessary for the chiefs to get a day 1 starter at the position. Personally, I hope Eric berry competes for the FS position as well since he has the speed to go sideline to sideline. Berry @ FS w/ Abdullah @ SS would be ideal, IMO.

Originally Posted by kccrow

KC signed a versatile Jeff Linkenbach who can play OG or OT, similar to the signing of Geoff Schwartz last season. While it appears Linkenbach may replace Schwartz/Asamoah as the starter at RG, and Fisher and Stephenson will man the tackle spots, the Chiefs have depth issues. They are replacing 3 (Albert, Asamoah, Schwartz) with 1. The Chiefs will need to address offensive line in the draft.

Here is what the chiefs have: Stephenson ,Fisher, Allen, Hudson, Kush, Rishaw, Watkins, Linkenbach.

I dont see the chiefs keeping more than that on the 53. Linkenback might suck, but he has experience. Stephenson and Fisher can play both positions. There is depth at guard and Center. Watkins has starting experience @ RT as well. I dont see it being dire.

Originally Posted by kccrow

Adding to the problem of losing 3 lineman, Jeff Allen is one of the worst guards in football. As a rookie he rated the 3rd worst guard in all the NFL. In 2013 he rated out as #51. The Chiefs may never realize more than below average return on a relatively high investment, and Allen should be replaced at LG

he def. has played poorly and needs to compete for a starting position.

Originally Posted by kccrow

I expect KC to bring in another pass rusher via the draft at this point.

that would be wise.

Originally Posted by kccrow

the fact is the Chiefs have one somewhat productive receiver in Dwayne Bowe and a bunch of secondary options

In the regular season, Bowe had 673 yrds, and Avery had 596. Charles had 693 yrds receiving. Charles will remain the #1 offensive option, followed by Bowe. If you look at it from that standpoint, than it doesnt look so bad. Alex Smith isnt doing the receivers any favors as he tends to check down (to the HB) and make the safe throw.

Originally Posted by kccrow

What we know so far is that the Chiefs, from a talent perspective, don't really sit any worse than where they left off in 2013 but they sure didn't gain anything (may have lost a tad) and there is quite a bit of work to do to gain any ground against division foes San Diego and Denver.

pretty good summary.

Originally Posted by kccrow

My Needs-Based Mock Draft

I like Baptiste, but I'm not a fan of your mock draft. That being said, thanks for sharing.

[Saccopoo]

Excellent job.

I'm a big Mike Davis fan and agree that if he had any semblance of a QB, he'd be much higher rated. If he's there in the 4th, it's a steal. I truly think he's fully capable of turning into a legitimate #1 NFL WR.

Also, good point by Planetdoc. Howard is kind of a freak from a physical perspective. It really depends on if his heart is in it or not. We know that Catapano has the physical ability and drive. I'm eagerly anticipating what kind of monster he's is at 300 lbs. to start the season. And Bailey progressed I think that they are going to be just fine on the defensive line actually.

If the Chiefs can get a guy like Davis in the third or fourth, I don't mind the pick of Filo (though I can understand where people might freak the **** out with yet another high offensive line pick).

Good draft overall.

[kccrow]

I though hard about Fuller in round 1 and Billy Turner in round 3. Not sure Turner makes it to that pick though. Richardson maybe, which wouldn't be the end of the world, but i'm not sure about him.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I though hard about Fuller in round 1 and Billy Turner in round 3. Not sure Turner makes it to that pick though. Richardson maybe, which wouldn't be the end of the world, but i'm not sure about him.

Sheeit.

Richardson is a hell of a lineman.

He'd be a beast at guard under Reid.

[BryanBusby]

Good to see that you made the transfer over crow.

I like Filo as a prospect but the pick would absolutely get killed here if it happens. I can't really argue against it either, as the value is pretty low at that spot. If they can trade down some, sure why the hell not? (This place will freak out if they take any lineman though! Can't wait to get off work that Thursday night and watch the meltdown take place lol)

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I personally really like Rishaw Johnson and Eric Kush, but it's apparent that Dorsey does not.

I'm not sure how you're exactly coming to this conclusion.

[Direckshun]

Honestly, if you're going to get Morgan Breslin, you might as well just get Michael Sam.

Sam actually has an NFL physique, with similar production and a similar difficulty adjusting to the rushbacker position. Breslin's just a tweener.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Honestly, if you're going to get Morgan Breslin, you might as well just get Michael Sam.

Sam actually has an NFL physique, with similar production and a similar difficulty adjusting to the rushbacker position. Breslin's just a tweener.

I disagree with this in part. Breslin has an NFL body, and has good size for his length at 6'1" 250. He dropped down a bit to around 240 I think for his pro day. He has some room to grow from what I can see. He's quicker, faster, more explosive, has experience in coverage, and so forth. Breslin is more of drop-in depth, whereas Sam is a project at best. Sam has a better physique, but what isn't obvious is his ability to play in space. I don't question that with Breslin.

[Saccopoo]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I disagree with this in part. Breslin has an NFL body, and has good size for his length at 6'1" 250. He dropped down a bit to around 240 I think for his pro day. He has some room to grow from what I can see. He's quicker, faster, more explosive, has experience in coverage, and so forth. Breslin is more of drop-in depth, whereas Sam is a project at best. Sam has a better physique, but what isn't obvious is his ability to play in space. I don't question that with Breslin.

You're not drafting Sam to play in space.

He's a pure ROLB rush end in the system like Hali. (Which is why you probably want a more versatile LB alongside DJ - another DJ really - so that you don't hamstring yourself on that side of the ball with a pure two down run thumping LB versus a three down guy.)

And his combine numbers are, for lack of a better word, horseshit as it relates to what he does on the field.

He's amazing coming off the ball snap. Freakish really. So much so that I was utterly stunned by his 40 time and vertical. He's a one trick pony, but I think he's the type of guy who might do that one trick very well. And he's cheap as hell at this point. The one thing I worry about Sam with is that he did tend to get his sacks in bunches. Now, when he got them, he got a lot of them, but then had some long dry spells. I still think he's a solid sixth round option at this point if they choose to go other positions earlier in the draft.

Would I take a guy like Attaochu or Jeffcoat over him? Yes, but you are going to probably have to move up to the second to get either at this point, whereas Sam is fifth/sixth round material right now.

However, that being said, if I were the Chiefs, there would be two guys I'd be looking at for that position: Boise State's Demarcus Lawrence and Virginia Tech's James Gayle. Both have the size, athleticism and versatility to be effective as initial #3 backups at either OLB spot and the ceiling(s) to groom into a solid starter if/when they need them. Both should be available with the Chiefs third round pick.

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Damn dude.

Solid post. Your mocks are my favorite around here. I can't agree more...