What The Niners did with the Picks from the AS trade

[DTLB58]

From MMQB
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/12/the-20...with-a-kiss/3/

Now that we see the final product of what the Niners gave away and received in the Alex Smith trade from 14 months ago, we can judge one thing about San Francisco GM Trent Baalke: He is calculating, he is fast, and he knows how to set up his team for the future.

The result, first, of the 2013 trade of Smith to Kansas City for a pair of second-round draft picks. The two second-round picks, or their tributaries, were traded a total of five times over the past two drafts, and here’s how it shook out after this year’s draft.

Surrendered
QB Alex Smith

Acquired*
DL Tank Carradine (second round, 2013)
LB Corey Lemonier (third round, 2013)
LB Chris Borland (third round, 2014)
RB Carlos Hyde (second round, 2014)
WR Stevie Johnson (acquired for 2015 fourth-rounder)

* Lemonier was acquired in part with a tributary pick stemming from the Smith trade, and Johnson was acquired from Buffalo on Friday for a fourth-round conditional pick in 2015. That’s included here because San Francisco obtained a fourth-round pick in 2015 from Denver for the second-round pick that originally belonged to Kansas City—so the two picks, arguably, will end up canceling each other out.
Now the story. In the span of 22 minutes Friday, Baalke consummated three trades. One: He traded the 56th pick in the second round (the second Kansas City second-rounder) to Denver for the 63rdand 171st this year, and the Broncos’ fourth-round pick next year. Two: Baalke traded the 63rd and 171stpicks just acquired from Denver to Miami for the 57th pick in the draft; Baalke got the player he would have picked at 56, Carlos Hyde, at 57 … while adding the fourth-rounder next year that replaced the pick used to get Stevie Johnson. Three: He traded his own second-round pick, 61st overall, to Jacksonville for the 70th and 150th picks.

Baalke explained that he and COO Paraag Marathe work the phone and line up prospective trades, and it was hectic because there were a couple of other teams calling in that 22-minute span trying to get one or more of the Niners’ picks at 56 and 61. “That span you talked about was a little bit of a grind,” Baalke said late Saturday night. “A lot of action, a lot of things to consider. Paraag’s the best in the business at lining things up, and then we make the decision. After we made the trade with Denver, I thought we might be able to get Carlos at 61, but then we called [Miami] at 57 and figured we could use what we got from Denver in this year’s draft and keep next year’s pick and move up to make sure we got him. And it allowed us basically to get our four back, which we used to trade for Stevie.”

This isn’t a case of San Francisco fleecing Denver. But it is an example of Baalke doing the smart thing, and waiting till a needy team is either on the clock or frothing after a certain player. That was Denver with wide receiver Cody Latimer, who the Broncos project to replace Eric Decker right away. If he works out the way John Elway thinks, surrendering the four next year will be nothing.

Time will tell if Baalke made the haul worth it. The five pieces the Smith deal yielded:

Carradine will get on the field healthy for the first time as a Niner this month. He missed all of last season with an ACL tear. He’ll be the third man in the 3-4 defensive end rotation with the aging Justin Smith and Ray McDonald, and move inside on some four-lineman snaps. He’s being groomed to start in the 3-4 scheme when Smith or McDonald are gone.
Lemonierplayed 284 snaps, mostly subbing for the idle Aldon Smith last year, and will be in the outside-linebacker rotation with Michael Wilhoite and Nick Moody, competing for time.
Borlandis an accomplished college player, and produced an amazing 27 turnovers in his Wisconsin career. But he’s only 5-11 ½, and he could be a first-down player only (against the run). “It’ll be interesting to see if his game translates to the NFL,” said defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. However, with NaVorro Bowman expect to be sidelined until at least November rehabbing a sere knee injury, there’s a spot on the Niners’ D at inside ‘backer waiting to be won, and Borland will get a solid crack at it. “I’ve heard people talk about his size, and his short arms,” said Baalke. “But he’s a guy with instincts. All those short did somehow was rack up over 400 tackles in the Big Ten.”
Hyde should be able to make the move from the Big 10 to the NFL much easier. He’s the heir to Frank Gore, a 230-pound bruiser with enough moves to be an every-down back. That is, if Gore ever slows down.
Johnson is still only 27, but he had a down year last year with the Bills. He’s not the speedster the Niners sought this offseason to help de-pressurize Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree, but he should be a good third receiver and an adequate piece to San Francisco’s underachieving receiver group.
I asked Baalke about his feelings on the trade now that the chips are known. “Mixed emotions,’’ he said. “I have so much respect for Alex Smith and his family, and great regard for him as a player. He’s the epitome of a good man and teammate and a good player. I know the Kansas City Chiefs staff, and they are thrilled to have him. We’ll see how it works out for us. It’s still early.”

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

I've listened to interviews of Dorsey & I don't think he is smart enough to pull this off.

i'm starting to get a bad feeling about him as well.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by Hoover

The unknown possibly of draft picks are a lot like lottery tickets to people.

If given the choice between 10 dollar scratch tickets and a 20 dollar bill, I think most people would pick the lottery tickets because of their unknown potential. Yet the second they has scratched them off and realize they have a two dollar winner and a free ticket, they regret passing up the sure thing.

Alex Smith was the sure thing.

The picks we gave up for him were full of unlimited potential. Maybe they pan out, maybe they don't, but I'm not upset that the Chiefs have a legitimate signal caller under center. Smith is now a proven winner. I'm anxious to see how he fairs with the difficult schedule we face next year. If we make the playoffs again, I think the case should be closed for good.

Good analogy.

I think I'm the type of GM who would always be trading up to get players instead of trading down.

[ChiefsCountry]

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

I think the Cards 6th rank D had a lot to do with that. Chiefs D was 24.

Chiefs defense was tied for 5th in total points, Arizona was 6th.

[Jakemall]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Yeah....it kind of surprised me that they just kept trading down.

I'm a big believer in trading down (at least to a certain extent). If you can get value for the pick, you have a better shot at getting lucky with 3 guys than one guy in the first round. No, not all of them will hit...but you only need one out of 3 to hit as opposed to putting all your hopes in a single pick.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Rausch

After two off-seasons and two drafts I'm pretty much done.

Other than the Cooper find he's been piss poor at drafting.

He's been piss poor at the whole draft process (trading up/down and finding value.)

He's done a piss poor job of retaining talent and a piss poor job of replacing talent through free agency.

I'm throwing in my pink "Pioli" flag right now.

He doesn't trade, draft, or sign well.

Reid will likely buy him two more years because Reid makes poop smell like perfume...

A little early to give up dont you think? This is a boom or bust draft class. Hopefully it booms after thid year so the Chiefs will have a nice pick next year and some cap space to sign guys.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Jakemall

I'm a big believer in trading down (at least to a certain extent). If you can get value for the pick, you have a better shot at getting lucky with 3 guys than one guy in the first round. No, not all of them will hit...but you only need one out of 3 to hit as opposed to putting all your hopes in a single pick.

The relationship between pick value and player success isn't linear. The further you trade back, the less potential high-end value you're getting. You limiting your chances of ending up with nothing but you're also limiting your chances of getting actual blue-chip talent.

Sure, you can shotgun it, take 3, and hit 1. You're not going home empty-handed.

Or you can use a rifle, hit 1, and ****ing KILL IT.

If you want a couple of pheasants, a shotgun works fine. If you want to bring down a rhino, you better have a rifle.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Jakemall

I'm a big believer in trading down (at least to a certain extent). If you can get value for the pick, you have a better shot at getting lucky with 3 guys than one guy in the first round. No, not all of them will hit...but you only need one out of 3 to hit as opposed to putting all your hopes in a single pick.

Yeah....that's great when you have a bunch of holes on your roster. No way the entire 49ers draft class makes that roster.

[DaWolf]

After years of following this team, it's obvious that every GM we have is an idiot until we actually get to a Super Bowl.

For all the Baalke love, and he has made some good moves, let's not forget his crappy 2012 draft or wasting some high picks on non-difference makers. He hasn't been perfect. Inheriting a strong talent base when he took over and the success Harbaugh has brought has allowed them to trade down and stockpile picks for future drafts. And as we talked about this offseason, the most successful drafts come from having a lot of draft picks, giving you more opportunities to hit and make moves for guys you target.

Next year will be the first year we are in a position to have extra picks in the draft, so let's see where that takes us...

[Jakemall]

Originally Posted by GordonGekko

To be honest, the defense did most of the heavy lifting for the first 9 wins against a very easy schedule. Heck, I think we won a couple games where AS didn't have a TD pass (not going to look up but think it happened).

It was only after the defense completey shit themselves did the real Chiefs team emerge, a team that closed the season out 2-6 in their last 8.

Alex Smith is getting A LOT OF CREDIT for an easy start to last season and beast mode play by the defense for the first half of the season.

AS did play great in the playoff game (for the first half that is).

Btw I am definitely not an AS fan but agree that he is our best option then and now to win now. I do very much want the Chiefs to use a first round pick on a QB and develop them properly, this is my wish as a fan.

Somewhere in the middle of the season, when the offense hadn't quite gotten it together, I remember Reid said something along the lines of Alex is getting a lot of blame for things that he has no control over and that he was actually minimizing the damage, but that criticism is just part of being the QB.

[Jakemall]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Yeah....that's great when you have a bunch of holes on your roster. No way the entire 49ers draft class makes that roster.

9ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL, imo. Sometimes it's better to grab a lot of players and throw them against the wall and see what sticks than it is to grab a guy who might be able to beat one other guy.

The only real weaknesses I think on that roster are CB and WR. They addressed one in the draft and the other in a trade.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by SNR

We would have missed out on a playoff loss and the tight cap space that's going to make things difficult to keep Smith, Berry, and Houston on the roster!

I'll take those over anything Palmer would have given us.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by Jakemall

9ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL, imo. Sometimes it's better to grab a lot of players and throw them against the wall and see what sticks than it is to grab a guy who might be able to beat one other guy.

I disagree

imo when you roster is talented you should trade up and grab the higher players that fit you specific needs.

Quantity over quality is what crappy teams use because they might get lucky and have several guys make their roster

[Jakemall]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

The relationship between pick value and player success isn't linear. The further you trade back, the less potential high-end value you're getting. You limiting your chances of ending up with nothing but you're also limiting your chances of getting actual blue-chip talent.

Sure, you can shotgun it, take 3, and hit 1. You're not going home empty-handed.

Or you can use a rifle, hit 1, and ****ing KILL IT.

If you want a couple of pheasants, a shotgun works fine. If you want to bring down a rhino, you better have a rifle.

I understand where you're coming from, and I do think it is a balancing act..but give this a read:


http://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/...s-irrationally


This was particularly interesting: He and Thaler figured this out by calculating the odds that the first player picked at any given position will perform better — in terms of the number of games he starts in his first five seasons — than the second player drafted at that position. This is relevant because a team will often trade up when they identify a player they prefer at a needed position: they need a wide receiver, and a few highly-rated ones are available, but they trade up because they're certain one is much better.

But the data says that teams just aren't very good at figuring out when this is true. On average, the chance that first player will start more games than the second one picked at his position: 52 percent. Compared to the third, it's still only 55 percent, and compared to the fourth, it's merely 56 percent.


Bottom Line: Scouts and GMs just aren't good enough to figure out who should really be in round 1 or round 2 or round 3 and are better off trading down for the most part.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

The Cardinals who had the 5th hardest schedule in football ended up with 10 wins, yet the Chiefs who had the easiest schedule in football had 11, yet Carson Palmer would have made it so the Chiefs wouldn't have had a winning record?

Palmer turned the ball over 15! times more than Alex Smith.

You really don't think 15 more turnovers last year would have cost us 3+ games? Seriously?

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by Jakemall

9ers have one of the best rosters in the NFL, imo. Sometimes it's better to grab a lot of players and throw them against the wall and see what sticks than it is to grab a guy who might be able to beat one other guy.

The only real weaknesses I think on that roster are CB and WR. They addressed one in the draft and the other in a trade.

And that's how they lost out on Marcus Cooper.