Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 18

**cdcox** · 03:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

**Tribal Warfare** · 12-03-2012, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

How many Super Bowls did Marino win?

In many ways, Marino is the poster child for the "prick" QB that never could become a real leader of men.

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but I don't want Phillip Rivers or Jay Culter. Stats don't win championships, winners do.

I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but Marino was one of the most clutch QBs of all-time that never really had a defense or a running game. I'd take him in a heartbeat. If Bray gets into a situation like Favre did with Holmgren, then he'll truly set the world on fire.

**notorious** · 12-03-2012, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by htismaqe

So one of his "selling points" is that he'd be easier to replace?

Honestly, yes.

If you draft a QB that is OK, you might give him a few more years.

I am a Chiefs fan, we must think out of the box.

htismaqe · 12-03-2012, 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

I don't want to make excuses for the guy, but Marino was one of the most clutch QBs of all-time that never really had a defense or a running game. I'd take him in a heartbeat. If Bray gets into a situation like Favre did with Holmgren, then he'll truly set the world on fire.

Or set the locker room on fire, one of the two.

Hammock Parties · 12-03-2012, 09:16 PM

The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win.

**BossChief** · 12-03-2012, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win.

Im not worried about the Jaguars.

ShowtimeSBMVP · 12-06-2012, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-10 KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT

Oakland has 3 winnable games left now.

Hammock Parties · 12-06-2012, 09:38 PM

Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game?

Ebolapox · 12-06-2012, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game?

as of right this moment--about 48% 1st pick, 22% 2nd pick, 17% 3rd pick.

IF: we lose and the jags win (see also: shitty jets team), our odds go to:

65% 1st pick, 20% 2nd pick, 9% 3rd pick

IF we lose to the raiders along with the previous conditions:

93% 1st pick, 5% 2nd pick, 2% 3rd pick.

SO... the next two weeks, losing and hoping for just a BIT of help (COME ON, JAGS) and we all-but have the 1st pick sewn up.

philfree · 12-06-2012, 11:06 PM

If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs!

**cdcox** · 12-06-2012, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philfree

If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs!

Carolina and Oakland can't both finish 3-13.

In any possible scenario involving a bunch of teams tied at 3-13 we will draft no worse than 3rd.

philfree · 12-06-2012, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Carolina and Oakland can't both finish 3-13.

In any possible scenario involving a bunch of teams tied at 3-13 we will draft no worse than 3rd.

It was just about to edit my post then I figured it would be pointed out pretty fast. No worse then 3rd. We can probably still snag a QB there but probably not Geno Smith.

KCrockaholic · 12-06-2012, 11:41 PM

To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.

AussieChiefsFan · 12-07-2012, 12:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KCrockaholic

To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.

^

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-09-2012, 02:42 PM

Update, love?

ShowtimeSBMVP · 12-09-2012, 02:48 PM

Chiefs- 2-11 @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-11 @MIA , NE, @TEN
Oakland- 3-10 KC, @CAR , @SD
Eagles- 3-10 CINN , WASH , @NYG
Carolina- 4-9 @SD , OAK , @NO
Titans- 4-9 Jets, @GB , Jags

Updated- Eagles and Jags game still going

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2381769	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16 KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 45,536

12-03-2012, 09:16 PM	#259
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4760478	The Jags are gonna face a Jets team led by McElroy....so they could easily win. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 277,607

12-06-2012, 09:38 PM	#262
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4760478	Cdcox, give us an update based on the Raiders losing this game? __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 277,607

12-06-2012, 11:06 PM	#264
philfree Indian Twitter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Free Agency Casino cash: $1696198	If the Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Jags and the Eagles all finish 3-13 where do we end up? 5th? I could see that happening to us. We are the Chiefs! The Mighty mighty Chiefs! __________________ [/SIGPIC]
Posts: 14,937

12-06-2012, 11:41 PM	#267
KCrockaholic Sarcasm Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Olathe Casino cash: $4802900	To me it all comes down to that Chiefs Vs Raiders game if we can lose this weekend. We MUST lose to Oakland.
Posts: 21,133

12-09-2012, 02:42 PM	#269
Chiefs Pantalones GO CHIEFS!!!!!! Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $7938717	Update, love? __________________ Don't be fooled by my username, I'm white.
Posts: 26,629

12-09-2012, 02:48 PM	#270
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $3696009	Chiefs- 2-11 @OAK ,IND,@DEN Jags- 2-11 @MIA , NE, @TEN Oakland- 3-10 KC, @CAR , @SD Eagles- 3-10 CINN , WASH , @NYG Carolina- 4-9 @SD , OAK , @NO Titans- 4-9 Jets, @GB , Jags Updated- Eagles and Jags game still going Last edited by ShowtimeSBMVP; 12-09-2012 at 02:56 PM..
Posts: 23,752