Mock 10/12/19

[kccrow]

Moves
Chiefs trade WR Sammy Watkins to Arizona for a 3rd round pick. The Cards will need a receiver and Watkins' cap space is needed in KC.

Chiefs franchise, then trade DT Chris Jones to Miami for their 1st round pick from Pittsburgh (top-10). The Chiefs deal Jones for a quality pick rather than quantity to a team that desperately needs pass rush help at 3-4 DE. It's a big hope and prayer to get this kind of return, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility given Jones' ability as a 3-4 rush end.

Chiefs cut OT Cam Erving, SS Daniel Sorensen, P Dustin Colquitt

Chiefs sign the following free agents:
DT A'Shawn Robinson (DET) to a 5-year, $57.5 million deal (mirrors Star Lotuleilei's but time adjusted) with $21.0 million guaranteed and a $15 million signing bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $7.75 million. Robinson doesn't have the pass rush prowess of Jones, but he's a better run defender and can still get some pressure. The plus is Robinson should be much cheaper than Jones and at the same time shore up the leaky run defense.

LB Joe Schobert (CLE) to a 4-year, $60.0 million deal with $23.0 million guaranteed and an $8.0 million signing bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $11.50 million. Schobert just may be the best ILB in the game right now but more importantly, he's a stout run defender that isn't afraid to take on lineman after his days playing 3-4 OLB at Wisconsin. I screamed for him in the draft, now I'm screaming for him in FA. Make it happen Veach.

DB Jimmy Ward (SF) to a 1-year, $2.0 million deal with $1.0 million guaranteed. Ward is a bit of a Swiss Army knife but his problem is getting knicked up. He's a solid nickel when healthy and that usually means limiting his snaps. He should come at a discount.

Chiefs re-sign/extend the following players:
QB Patrick Mahomes - Exercise 5th-year option, then sign him to a 4-year extension for $152 million with $67 million guaranteed and a $27.5 million signing bonus and $33.0 million 2021 option bonus. Estimated 2020 salary is $8.76 million (+3.5 million)

CB Bashaud Breeland - Re-sign to 3-year $30.0 million deal (similar to Logan Ryan and Prince Amukamara) with $11.5 million guaranteed and a $4.5 million signing bonus and a $3.0 million roster bonus that guarantees the 5th day of the 2021 league year. Estimated 2020 salary is $8.50 million.

DE Emmanuel Ogbah - Re-sign to a 3-year $18.0 million deal (mirrors Alex Okafor's deal) with a $6.0 million bonus.
Chiefs ERFA tender TE Deon Yelder, LG Andrew Wylie, WR Marcus Kemp
Chiefs sign to minimum deals QB Matt Moore, S Jordan Lucas

Deals, after the rollover, leave Chiefs at approximately $6.0 million in cap space.

Draft

1 (f/MIA). CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State (6'1" 200)
The only way KC has a shot at Okudah is if they get into the top 10 and likely top 5. One way to do that is to leverage Chris Jones, a player the Dolphins could definitely use, for the pick from Pittsburgh. Okudah is a big, fluid corner with speed and ball skills.
1. OG Solomon Kindley, Georgia (6'4" 335)
The Chiefs have been a swinging gate at left guard so I look for Reid to want to protect Mahomes better. Kindley is a mammoth that has shut down some stud defensive tackles the past couple of seasons.
2 (f/SF). DE Kenny Willekes, Michigan State (6'4" 260)
The Chiefs pass rush is rather anemic, so they need to get better there. Ogbah has been a pleasant surprise, which is the reason for re-signing him as a rotational rusher. Okafor has been a mistake and, even though he may make the 2020 cut must go in 2021 at least.
3 (f/ARZ). TE Brycen Hopkins, Purdue (6'5" 245)
The Chiefs need better at the TE position behind an aging Travis Kelce. Hopkins is a quality receiver and good blocker that could eventually transition to TE1.
3. LB Paddy Fisher, Northwestern (6'4" 240)
The Chiefs linebacker play is something atrocious aside from Wilson and some flashes from Niemann. I have them going out and getting stud Joe Schobert in FA but they should work on replacing Hitchens in 2021, who is an absolute liability with an enormous contract. Fisher is one of the better linebackers in the country and plays downhill well. He's not an ace in coverage, but he's solid there.
4. WR Van Jefferson, Florida (6'1" 190)
The Chiefs probably need to trade Watkins and bringing back Robinson could be cost-prohibitive as well. Jefferson has good speed (not many in this class), runs good routes to gain separation, has solid size and has reliable hands. The Chiefs continue rebuilding at receiver, piggy-backing off of drafting Hardman last year. Also a good gunner.
5. RB Trey Ragas, LA-Lafayette (5'11" 227)
Ragas is a power back with speed and quickness, plus good receiving skills. He fits the mold that Veach looks for at the position. Backs are declaring more as Juniors due to a decreased shelf-life, so I fully expect Ragas will with the season he's putting together so far.

QB: Mahomes, Moore, Shurmur
RB: Williams, Williams, Thompson, Ragas
FB: Lovett
WR: Hill, Hardman, Pringle, Jefferson, Thompson, Kemp
TE: Kelce, Hopkins, Yelder
OL: Fisher, Kindley, Reiter, Duvernay-Tardif, Schwartz, Wylie, Allegretti, Rankins, Senat, Hunter
DE: Clark, Okafor, Ogbah, Kpassagnon, Willekes
DT: Robinson, Nnadi, Saunders, Speaks, Ivie
LB: Wilson, Schobert, Hitchens, Fisher, Niemann, O'Daniel
CB: Breeland, Okudah, Ward, Ward, Fenton
S: Mathieu, Thornhill, Watts, Lucas
ST: Butker, Some UDFA Punter, Winchester

[Chargem]

I like re-signing Ogbah and Breeland. I also like Robinson.

I would love Schobert, but I'm not sure it makes sense, financially we are stuck with Hitchens still and Wilson has looked good, so I don't really want to see his snaps decrease. Are you just letting Hitchens ride the bench when you only 2 LB on the field?

Based on right now, I would not be comfortable with that WR group. Maybe we see enough from Pringle and Hardman for the rest of this season to be comfortable, but right now I would be hanging on to Watkins.

How would you feel about a stop gap 1 year DT and also drafting one in the first or 2nd to be the future. I don't know who that would make sense to take in that 1 year role, Mike Daniels or maybe Dareus if there's no market for a multi year contract for him? Suh?

I don't know anything about draft prospects at this stage but with a top 10 pick I'd be tempted to trade back for more resources, looking for 4 picks in the top 64 to get a DT, DE, CB and OL.

[Direckshun]

I love you kccrow, but your mocks are even more worthless than mine until you assume the Chiefs are extending Mahomes.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

I love you kccrow, but your mocks are even more worthless than mine until you assume the Chiefs are extending Mahomes.

Umm, I did. lol. I have it that they are going to do the same thing with Mahomes that happened with Wentz and Goff. Exercise the option then extend in the same offseason. I laid the contract out end of my last mock but I state it simply here, you just have to read it.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Chargem

I like re-signing Ogbah and Breeland. I also like Robinson.

I would love Schobert, but I'm not sure it makes sense, financially we are stuck with Hitchens still and Wilson has looked good, so I don't really want to see his snaps decrease. Are you just letting Hitchens ride the bench when you only 2 LB on the field?

Based on right now, I would not be comfortable with that WR group. Maybe we see enough from Pringle and Hardman for the rest of this season to be comfortable, but right now I would be hanging on to Watkins.

How would you feel about a stop gap 1 year DT and also drafting one in the first or 2nd to be the future. I don't know who that would make sense to take in that 1 year role, Mike Daniels or maybe Dareus if there's no market for a multi year contract for him? Suh?

I don't know anything about draft prospects at this stage but with a top 10 pick I'd be tempted to trade back for more resources, looking for 4 picks in the top 64 to get a DT, DE, CB and OL.

I'm all good with Hitchens riding the pine now, much less next year. He sucks ass. That said, I have him sliding to WLB with Wilson at SLB and Schobert at MLB. In 2 linebacker sets, I'd easily sit Hitchens, contract be damned. Hell, I'm not opposed to cutting him in the offseason even though its basically a break-even. Might not be a bad idea to make him a June 1 cut and bring back Lee.

With the receivers, I'm going to assume Hardman and Pringle are better next year than this year, much like we had happen with Conley and Robinson a couple years ago. Keep adding pieces and rejuvenating the group. Mahomes doesn't need amazing receivers, he needs ones that do what they are supposed to every play. I think by next year, those two guys are doing those things better than right now.

Stop gap DT could work, but you have to bank on developing one quickly and that likely means an early pick. I wouldn't be opposed to it at all. It's a bit what I had in mind last mock. That said, the Chiefs need to get a CB of their own and a LG early IMO, however that may shake out.

[Chris Meck]

I'm into Schobert and Robinson. I haven't looked at the draft yet.

We need Fatties, I know that. And we have 2 CB's under contract total. And our LB'ers suck.

[kccrow]

Been watching more of Josiah Coatney out of Ole Miss. I love this kid. He gets off the line and delivers a hell of a punch. Ultra-productive NT with 60+ tackles the last 2 years. He's got a 4th round grade from a couple places. I'm thinking he slips in as a 3rd round pick in my next mock. Just have to upgrade the beef.

[RealSNR]

Gets rid of a couple oversized contract dickbags who suck. Adds draft picks. Gets Mahomes some much better protection. Keeps Mahomes in KC longterm. I like it.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by RealSNR

Gets rid of a couple oversized contract dickbags who suck. Adds draft picks. Gets Mahomes some much better protection. Keeps Mahomes in KC longterm. I like it.

Which means it will never happen.

But I’d love it if it did.

[DJ's left nut]

I really like Schobert, though oddly for the exact opposite reasons as Crow.

Schobert is an ELITE coverage backer. Truly outstanding in space. As a run defender he leaves a little to be desired (and my memory is that he has a concussion history, though I may be crossing him up with someone else there).

I don't know that he'd be a huge help in the run game but he'd at least help prevent us from getting destroyed underneath against the pass. Maybe if we don't have to sell out to help in that regard, the DL can focus more on playing the run when they can trust the MLB to be stout in space.

I'd be a fan of picking him up, for sure.

[pugsnotdrugs19]

Yeah I actually studied Robinson and Schobert on film recently, Shobert is more coverage than anything. Robinson is an elite run defender.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

Yeah I actually studied Robinson and Schobert on film recently, Shobert is more coverage than anything. Robinson is an elite run defender.

Robinson probably gets some help by playing alongside Snacks.

That's gonna make his assignment quite a bit easier.

Because I read somewhere once that DLs and LBs and DBs can play as a unit sometimes. They play off each other and to each others strengths. They do things that help other players on the field and tend to pay attention to something other than what's directly in front of them.

I mean, I can't speak to that directly since the Chiefs haven't played like that in 3+ years, but I'm told it still goes on somewhere.

[BryanBusby]

Schobert would quickly turn into Terri Shiavo here and CP would lose it.

[Chris Meck]

I doubt anyone is going to trade for Watkins; nobody's going to pay him that salary when you can just wait until we cut him and negotiate. It's obvious we'll have to cut him, it's a done deal.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I doubt anyone is going to trade for Watkins; nobody's going to pay him that salary when you can just wait until we cut him and negotiate. It's obvious we'll have to cut him, it's a done deal.

Yeah, most of the 'trade Watkins' talk assumed a healthy season. At that point a 1 yr/$14 million deal for a WR in his prime and who has demonstrated #1 wideout potential would have significant value.

But surprise surprise, brokedick gonna brokedick. And perhaps even more disappointing was how quickly he fell off after he was gameplanned for with Hill down.

Pretty sure that trade value has evaporated unless he can somehow destroy worlds down the stretch and/or in the post-season. There's time to rehab it but it seems unlikely that he gets moved at this point.

Veach couldn't drum up a market for Houston under substantially similar circumstance so I suspect he won't here either.