Chiefs Justin Houston SHOULD be traded - Page 4

kcbubb · 11:57 PM

Update 4/17:

I did not fully explain my rational for trading Houston in the original post. Houston should be traded because the Chiefs do not have history of paying big contracts. The most likely outcome of this negotiation is that we will franchise Houston for the next two years and then let him walk. This is an unacceptable outcome. The Chiefs have the opportunity to build the team for the long term rather than see our best player leave with nothing in return. I am assuming that the Chiefs won't pay a huge contract, and I am assuming that Houston will demand a huge contract. The likely outcome of those assumptions are Houston being franchised for two years and then leaving to get the big contract he desires from another team.

Houston will likely demand a better contract than JJ Watts because Suh's contract is really a lot more upfront money than JJ Watts' contract. Compare the two contracts here:
Suh: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dol...ndamukong-suh/
Watt: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/

Suh is getting about $50 million over the first two years where Watt is getting closer to $20 million over the first two years. I included the signing bonus in those totals. I believe that Watt's contract is now the minimum. In today's market, Houston should command a bigger contract than Watt based on the other free agents that have been signed. Here's a good article on the upward trending contracts. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...ource=infinite I do realize that Suh was a free agent while Watt was still under contract. But Watt signed with a year remaining on his deal. This is what we should have done with Houston. We should have signed him to a cheaper deal a year ago. Houston will most likely command a higher contract than Watt.

With all of this bad news, we could potentially have some luck. And we are due for some luck as Chiefs fans. We have waited for high draft picks to see them used on Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry. Maybe we could be fortunate and see some talent fall to us at 18 this year. I believe that there is a good chance that Randy Gregory could fall to 18. He was almost kicked off his team because of repeated pot use and he still made the choice to use pot to the point that he failed the drug test at the combine. This year has several good edge rushers and I think Gregory could fall to us because Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Dupree are such good prospects. Gregory had a 1.57 ten yard split at 6'5" and 240 lbs. He has 34" arms and did 24 reps on the bench press. His 3 cone is 6.79! http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ory?id=2552446 I don't think I need to talk about Gregory too much. I think most of you know that he is a great player. I don't think that Gregory will be suspended for pot use in the future. If Gregory falls to us, we should take him and trade Houston.

If we draft Gregory, I think we have to trade Houston. We should not have that many edge rushers on the roster. The young guys need to play as much as possible and we don't need to wrap that much $$$ in one position. The value of two first round picks for Houston with Houston receiving the type of contract that he will likely command is very unlikely. We will have to take less. I have a scenario that I believe is possible and that I believe could work for us. We could trade Houston to the Colts for their 29th pick this year, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2016 and their center, Jonotthan Harrison. With the 29th pick, we should take Jalen Collins. His ability best fits our bump and run style of defense. A CB like Collins should transition quickly to our defense because of the lack of complexity.

Harrison started 10 games for the Colts last year. You can read about him here. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...son?id=2543578 Here's another review of Harrison. http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3743 His run blocking ability has me salivating. I don't consider Harrison a huge value, but he does fit Reid's mauler type and hopefully he can improve in pass blocking. He's a cheap addition with a cost of about $500k per year. He can provide starting experience and if we can help him in the passing game with our improved guard play because of Grubbs, he could be a suitable center for us. The Colts can afford to trade him because they have Holmes returning from injury. Holmes is the likely starter. The Colts also have the cap room to sign Houston to a strong contract if they cut either Erik Walden or Robert Mathis. Mathis was injured last year, and if he doesn't get healthy, he could be cut anyway. The Colts are in position to make a superbowl run with Houston on their team.

The Chiefs would obtain 4 players for Houston with this trade and trading Houston makes picking Gregory at 18 fit. I think this trade is possible because of the assumption that Gregory falls and a top CB like Jalen Collins is available when the Colts pick. Harrison provides us with a potential starter at Center. For a trade to work, there has to be a willing partner. I think the Colts would be a willing partner under these assumptions. And we need to trade Houston since it is likely that he will only be here for two more years. The Chiefs would have time to make the trade with the Colts after picking Gregory.

I still believe #1, #2 and #5 from my original post below still apply.

Original post from 3/12 below:

The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016.

The Chiefs should do this bc:

1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents.

2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond.

3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition.

The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240

4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks!

5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench.

In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract.

Mr. Laz · 03-12-2015, 10:09 AM

I will say this:

The Chiefs now know how much money Houston wants. IF ..... the Chiefs have no intention of meeting those contract demands they might as well trade him this year as wait.

I doubt that Houston's trade value ever be higher.

Dante84 · 03-12-2015, 10:10 AM

Nah. 2 late firsts is better than one early second and one mid first.

Only way we let Houston go for a 2nd in 15 and a 1st in 16 is if they send Blackmon over as well.

Even then it's not good value for us.

ThaVirus · 03-12-2015, 10:12 AM

Will Blackmon, if that's who you're referencing, recently went to Seattle. If I'm not mistaken.

ThaVirus · 03-12-2015, 10:12 AM

Or were you talking about their WR who I had totally forgotten about?

PACHIEFSFAN · 03-12-2015, 10:12 AM

Draft players, develope them, trade them, Draft players, develope them, trade them, Draft players, develope them, trade them, Draft players, develope them, trade them.................No way to build a winning SB team.

Kman34 · 03-12-2015, 10:16 AM

If some team wants him they have to give up two 1st round picks...He's Franchised....That's the compensation...

BlackHelicopters · 03-12-2015, 10:18 AM

I remember my first beer.

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DA_T_84

Nah. 2 late firsts is better than one early second and one mid first.

Only way we let Houston go for a 2nd in 15 and a 1st in 16 is if they send Blackmon over as well.

Even then it's not good value for us.

Colts could make that trade now by right. $$$ is a bigger factor than people here realize or the colts would pull the trigger. There is not much difference in a pick bn 25-35 this year. Getting a high pick next year is huge.

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 10:21 AM

The cost to move up proves that higher picks are worth substantially more. The jags high 2nd and say the #10 pick next year is worth more than the colts two late round firsts.

PhillyChiefFan · 03-12-2015, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kcbubb

Our OL is terrible. Sean Smith is probably our best DB. Berry is gone. DJ has been hurt. Bowe is gone. Our WRs are below average even with Maclin. Our QB is average.

This is not a strong roster. We have the opportunity to build a young team with all these pics in 2016. And we have capable starters in ford in Hali. Ford needs to play.

To seriously, address your point:

The Chiefs already have the 2nd youngest roster in the league. If they continually trade away their best players, like Houston, for draft picks they will never build on that young roster. So your choices would be:

1. Draft a pass rusher, and hope that he is a shadow of the force the Houston is (Ford isn't ready, and Hali, as great as he is, isn't getting younger).

2. Trade for one and give up a couple solid players, so you lose 2 or 3 good players, and/or those draft picks that you got for Houston

3. Pay the guy that racked up more sacks in the last 2 seasons than most do in 5 and let him wreak havoc on QB's and OC game plans for years to come.

Personally, I'm tired of the Chiefs treading water in the doldrums of mediocrity. Pay Houston.

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 10:23 AM

Somebody please explain to me why the colts haven't already made this deal?

kcbubb · 03-12-2015, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhillyChiefFan

To seriously, address your point:

The Chiefs already have the 2nd youngest roster in the league. If they continually trade away their best players, like Houston, for draft picks they will never build on that young roster. So your choices would be:

1. Draft a pass rusher, and hope that he is a shadow of the force the Houston is (Ford isn't ready, and Hali, as great as he is, isn't getting younger).

2. Trade for one and give up a couple solid players, so you lose 2 or 3 good players, and/or those draft picks that you got for Houston

3. Pay the guy that racked up more sacks in the last 2 seasons than most do in 5 and let him wreak havoc on QB's and OC game plans for years to come.

Personally, I'm tired of the Chiefs treading water in the doldrums of mediocrity. Pay Houston.

What position group do the chiefs have that is dominant? OLBs & RB. That's really it. The rest is average to good and a few suck.

You don't draft a player in the first round to let them sit the bench. Ford needs to play. Hali can rotate with a freak talent like Dupree.

Signing Houston leads to mediocrity by insuring that we will be pretty good but not great. We won't have the $$$ to resign important players or sign free agents. Especially with maclins contract.

The timing is perfect to take a chance now and rebuild. Most here have really overrated our roster. This plan is the opposite of mediocrity. It's taking a chance on future picks in the hope to be great by 2016, 2017 and 2018 with a young roster.

**mdchiefsfan** · 03-12-2015, 10:31 AM

This has blackbob all over it

**The Franchise** · 03-12-2015, 10:32 AM

First round talent doesn't sit on the bench......and then advocates that our 1st round pick (Dupree) should split time with Hali. Which is it, ****face?

MMXcalibur · 03-12-2015, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

03-12-2015, 09:33 AM
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6126719	Justin Houston SHOULD be traded Update 4/17: I did not fully explain my rational for trading Houston in the original post. Houston should be traded because the Chiefs do not have history of paying big contracts. The most likely outcome of this negotiation is that we will franchise Houston for the next two years and then let him walk. This is an unacceptable outcome. The Chiefs have the opportunity to build the team for the long term rather than see our best player leave with nothing in return. I am assuming that the Chiefs won't pay a huge contract, and I am assuming that Houston will demand a huge contract. The likely outcome of those assumptions are Houston being franchised for two years and then leaving to get the big contract he desires from another team. Houston will likely demand a better contract than JJ Watts because Suh's contract is really a lot more upfront money than JJ Watts' contract. Compare the two contracts here: Suh: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dol...ndamukong-suh/ Watt: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/j.j.-watt/ Suh is getting about $50 million over the first two years where Watt is getting closer to $20 million over the first two years. I included the signing bonus in those totals. I believe that Watt's contract is now the minimum. In today's market, Houston should command a bigger contract than Watt based on the other free agents that have been signed. Here's a good article on the upward trending contracts. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_...ource=infinite I do realize that Suh was a free agent while Watt was still under contract. But Watt signed with a year remaining on his deal. This is what we should have done with Houston. We should have signed him to a cheaper deal a year ago. Houston will most likely command a higher contract than Watt. With all of this bad news, we could potentially have some luck. And we are due for some luck as Chiefs fans. We have waited for high draft picks to see them used on Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry. Maybe we could be fortunate and see some talent fall to us at 18 this year. I believe that there is a good chance that Randy Gregory could fall to 18. He was almost kicked off his team because of repeated pot use and he still made the choice to use pot to the point that he failed the drug test at the combine. This year has several good edge rushers and I think Gregory could fall to us because Fowler, Beasley, Ray and Dupree are such good prospects. Gregory had a 1.57 ten yard split at 6'5" and 240 lbs. He has 34" arms and did 24 reps on the bench press. His 3 cone is 6.79! http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ory?id=2552446 I don't think I need to talk about Gregory too much. I think most of you know that he is a great player. I don't think that Gregory will be suspended for pot use in the future. If Gregory falls to us, we should take him and trade Houston. If we draft Gregory, I think we have to trade Houston. We should not have that many edge rushers on the roster. The young guys need to play as much as possible and we don't need to wrap that much $$$ in one position. The value of two first round picks for Houston with Houston receiving the type of contract that he will likely command is very unlikely. We will have to take less. I have a scenario that I believe is possible and that I believe could work for us. We could trade Houston to the Colts for their 29th pick this year, 2nd & 4th round picks in 2016 and their center, Jonotthan Harrison. With the 29th pick, we should take Jalen Collins. His ability best fits our bump and run style of defense. A CB like Collins should transition quickly to our defense because of the lack of complexity. Harrison started 10 games for the Colts last year. You can read about him here. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profil...son?id=2543578 Here's another review of Harrison. http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3743 His run blocking ability has me salivating. I don't consider Harrison a huge value, but he does fit Reid's mauler type and hopefully he can improve in pass blocking. He's a cheap addition with a cost of about $500k per year. He can provide starting experience and if we can help him in the passing game with our improved guard play because of Grubbs, he could be a suitable center for us. The Colts can afford to trade him because they have Holmes returning from injury. Holmes is the likely starter. The Colts also have the cap room to sign Houston to a strong contract if they cut either Erik Walden or Robert Mathis. Mathis was injured last year, and if he doesn't get healthy, he could be cut anyway. The Colts are in position to make a superbowl run with Houston on their team. The Chiefs would obtain 4 players for Houston with this trade and trading Houston makes picking Gregory at 18 fit. I think this trade is possible because of the assumption that Gregory falls and a top CB like Jalen Collins is available when the Colts pick. Harrison provides us with a potential starter at Center. For a trade to work, there has to be a willing partner. I think the Colts would be a willing partner under these assumptions. And we need to trade Houston since it is likely that he will only be here for two more years. The Chiefs would have time to make the trade with the Colts after picking Gregory. I still believe #1, #2 and #5 from my original post below still apply. Original post from 3/12 below: The Chiefs should trade Houston to the Jags for their 2nd round pick this year and their first round pick in 2016. The Chiefs should do this bc: 1. Our roster does not have enough talent to make a run at the Super Bowl. Most position groups on the Chiefs roster are aging, average or below average. If we resign Houston to a JJ Watt level contract, we will mortgage our future and prohibit the rebuilding of our roster. We will have cap problems for years to come and this will limit our future potential to resign quality players and seek essential free agents. 2. The Broncos have a Super Bowl roster but this roster is aging rapidly. The Broncos are the favorites for the AFC west this year but with an aging roster and with future cap restraints the Chiefs should build for future dominance in 2016 and beyond. 3. Our 18th pick does not fit our biggest needs in 2015. We need to draft an OL early but the 18th pick is too high to draft an OL. The Chiefs should draft Bud Dupree with the 18th pick. He is a freak. Has anyone ever had a 42" vertical at 269 lbs? Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/...ree?id=2552289 He reminds me of Poe in that he is a freak with limited stats, but he's a worker with good character. Hali and Ford could start with Dupree rotating in and providing competition. The second pick from the Jags allows us to take Cameron Erving, who is the most versatile player in this draft on the OL. He has experience at C, G & T. He is the highest rated C, but has the athletic ability and length to kick outside. Check his measurables here: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ing?id=2552240 4. This gives us a first round pick in 2016 that could likely be a high pick. We would enter 2016 with a ton picks and have a real opportunity to build our roster and possibly select our QBOTF. We also will have the cap room to resign valuable players like Poe and etc. The future would be extremely bright in KC with all of those picks! 5. Houston scares me a little in that he could be another free agent that signs a big contract but doesn't produce. We just did that with Bowe. I'd rather move forward with multiple picks and give us a better chance of getting a Super Bowl in the future. Plus, we have Hali that can temporarily fill the void. Dee Ford needs to play also. You don't spend a first round pick on a non QB to let them sit the bench. In summary, this is an exception to the rule of resigning a quality player at an important position. We have starters at the position. Our roster needs to be rebuilt. The draft favors this trade with value in Dupree rather than OL at 18. We get two #1s in 2016, and there is always the possibility that Houston doesn't produce after the big contract. Last edited by kcbubb; 04-16-2015 at 11:57 PM..
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03-12-2015, 10:09 AM	#46
Mr. Laz Don't Tease Me Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: KS Casino cash: $11047037	I will say this: The Chiefs now know how much money Houston wants. IF ..... the Chiefs have no intention of meeting those contract demands they might as well trade him this year as wait. I doubt that Houston's trade value ever be higher. __________________
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03-12-2015, 10:10 AM	#47
Dante84 Tossed Salad & Scrambled Eggs Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: ATX & OPKS Casino cash: $1821996 VARSITY	Nah. 2 late firsts is better than one early second and one mid first. Only way we let Houston go for a 2nd in 15 and a 1st in 16 is if they send Blackmon over as well. Even then it's not good value for us. __________________ ..
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03-12-2015, 10:12 AM	#48
ThaVirus Settle this once and forever Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $2122369	Will Blackmon, if that's who you're referencing, recently went to Seattle. If I'm not mistaken.
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03-12-2015, 10:12 AM	#49
ThaVirus Settle this once and forever Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $2122369	Or were you talking about their WR who I had totally forgotten about?
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03-12-2015, 10:12 AM	#50
PACHIEFSFAN Spelunker Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Federal Lockup Casino cash: $10013162	Draft players, develope them, trade them, Draft players, develope them, trade them, Draft players, develope them, trade them, Draft players, develope them, trade them.................No way to build a winning SB team. __________________ I woke up this morning and found I was alive. I thinks it's going to be a good day!! arljay
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03-12-2015, 10:16 AM	#51
Kman34 My Mamma Says Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Glass Cage Of Emotion Casino cash: $2011786 VARSITY	If some team wants him they have to give up two 1st round picks...He's Franchised....That's the compensation...
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03-12-2015, 10:18 AM	#52
BlackHelicopters Spiraling down the Drain Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Dante's Ninth Circle Casino cash: $2750588	I remember my first beer. __________________ "We're both part of the same hypocrisy, Senator, but never think it applies to my family." "Fredo. You are my brother, and I love you. But never take sides against the Family again. Ever." 2019 Adopt a Chief - Travis Kelce #87
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03-12-2015, 10:21 AM	#54
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6126719	The cost to move up proves that higher picks are worth substantially more. The jags high 2nd and say the #10 pick next year is worth more than the colts two late round firsts.
Posts: 2,352

03-12-2015, 10:23 AM	#56
kcbubb Veteran Join Date: Nov 2008 Casino cash: $6126719	Somebody please explain to me why the colts haven't already made this deal?
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03-12-2015, 10:31 AM	#58
mdchiefsfan Supporter Join Date: Dec 2009 Casino cash: $3503904	This has blackbob all over it __________________ 2017 Adopt-A-Chief:TYREEK HILL
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03-12-2015, 10:32 AM	#59
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $3145047	First round talent doesn't sit on the bench......and then advocates that our 1st round pick (Dupree) should split time with Hali. Which is it, ****face?
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