Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

[Fat Elvis]

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.

[Nightfyre]

Is it bad if I have gone from hoping we draft Geno Smith to hoping we don't get trade raped? I still would prefer Geno to a trade down, but I have given up hope.

[Mav]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Is it bad if I have gone from hoping we draft Geno Smith to hoping we don't get trade raped? I still would prefer Geno to a trade down, but I have given up hope.

i wouldnt say its bad. But, i would say its a month away from the draft, prolly a little early to be trying to decode exactly what the chiefs are showing. They have no glaring weaknesses right at the moment, so they literally can draft whatever player they deem to be the best player in the draft.

Geno to me, especially if they cant trade down, is a very real possibility......

[keg in kc]

We're going to get trade raped. That's how our drafts go.

[AlexSmithDynasty]

Originally Posted by Alex Smith Fan

i wouldnt say its bad. But, i would say its a month away from the draft, prolly a little early to be trying to decode exactly what the chiefs are showing. They have no glaring weaknesses right at the moment, so they literally can draft whatever player they deem to be the best player in the draft.

Geno to me, especially if they cant trade down, is a very real possibility......

I just don't see how anyone thinking logically could actually believe this is a possibility. If you add up everything that has happened there's no way you could honestly believe that the Chiefs might draft Geno Smith, other than just turning a blind eye to what the evidence points to and wanting it to happen so bad that you convince yourself it might. Why would they give up a high 2nd round pick and a conditional pick for Alex Smith if they wanted Geno, even if they liked him but wanted to develop him behind someone there are a number of free agent veteran QB's that could be had for cheap without giving up picks and if this was their plan they would be in full rebuild mode, they wouldn't care if the the QB they got was anything special because he would be a place holder for a year or two and they would need those draft picks for the rebuild. It makes no sense to trade for Alex Smith if you plan to build around someone else. Then they go out and sign Chase Daniel to a pretty nice deal for a backup QB, are they gonna bring in Geno at first overall to sit 3rd on the depth chart? Do they expect Daniel to be 3rd on the depth chart with his salary?

Then there's the tackle situation, they cut their starting RT and are shopping their starting LT, all the while they have had private workouts with Luke Joeckel, no private workout with Geno. They want to recoup their 2nd rounder whether that be through a trade of Albert or a trade of the first pick, and then they want a tackle in the first round. If they are unable to get either trade I think they either take Joeckel and play him at RT for the year then Albert is gone after this season or possibly Sharrif Floyd who they have also had a private workout with. If they can't get out of the number 1 pick Dorsey is going BPA, but that's not Geno not even close. Every single big board I have read has Geno nowhere close to BPA, most have Joeckel ranked #1. Even after his pro day the highest I have seen Geno ranked is 9 best available, with the majority of rankings having him in the 20-25 range and Mel Kiper not even having him in the first round. There's absolutely nothing that points to the Chiefs taking Geno and I can't believe that everyday people here still talk about it like it's a real possibility.