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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-03-2016 at 09:38 PM..
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:09 PM   #1096
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Eh, I've said this a dozen times and will continue to do so, I put only a little more stock in dWAR than I do batting average. WAR as a dispositive tool has led to some very silly decisions (I'm looking at you, Jason Heyward).
Nothing wrong using the eye test here. He's stolen 34,36,26,30 bases in part time play and his speed in the OF is pretty much inarguable. So we know he's got a ton of value on the bases and in the field just by watching him, and you tack on a 91 wRC+ at the plate and....you get a valuable player by any view.


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Though being a pending FA isn't a selling point when the player he's being compared to (or traded for) would have team control which, by it's very definition, allows you to walk away with no commitment via releasing a pre-arb player or non-tendering one that's in his arb years. Every team in baseball would rather have a pre-arb or 1st/2nd year arb player than a pending FA.
Of course, but those players aren't attainable. Not without paying a high cost. For inexpensive alternatives, you don't want to be on the hook for out-years esp with a guy over 30.
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:10 PM   #1097
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Well, every team wants to win games. I doubt many would turn down value if they could get it.

Dyson's last 4 years of fWAR: 2.5, 3.0, 1.8, 3.1. All in part time duty. He would fill valuable bench time for every MLB team. There are $10M players who don't have that production in full time play.

His contract status is actually a selling point. He's dirt cheap and wouldn't cost a top-50 prospect or anything. Plus you're done with him after this year when his speed value declines - no commitment. If I were a team looking at 81 wins or so, I'd definitely kick the tires on him to see if I could get over the hump.

(As you say however, that's exactly where the Royals are and why they're unlikely to trade him off)
The royals are a team staring at an 81 win season.
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:17 PM   #1098
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Of course, but those players aren't attainable. Not without paying a high cost. For inexpensive alternatives, you don't want to be on the hook for out-years esp with a guy over 30.
Hey, I've got a big ol' fatass 1b who has seasons where he hit 17 and 16 HRs in fewer than 300 ABs. You've got him for at least 2 years cheap as he reaches his prime seasons.

I mean I know those guys usually come with a high price tag but I like you. You seem like an honest fella. I'll make you a hell of a deal and throw in the undercoating free of charge. Afterall, I'd rather make a friend than a profit...friend.
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:28 PM   #1099
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Hey, I've got a big ol' fatass 1b who has seasons where he hit 17 and 16 HRs in fewer than 300 ABs. You've got him for at least 2 years cheap as he reaches his prime seasons.

I mean I know those guys usually come with a high price tag but I like you. You seem like an honest fella. I'll make you a hell of a deal and throw in the undercoating free of charge. Afterall, I'd rather make a friend than a profit...friend.
I don't know the Cards like you guys do obv, but when they fell just short I wondered what a Dyson would've done there. I just looked up your OF innings played and was shocked you played Old Man Moss out there so often. I probably misread that, and Hazelbaker.

Dyson would've netted you 2+ wins and gotten you into the playoffs, probably. And I'll take Adams on a DFA. He has value, I'm not saying I wouldn't plug him in at DH. Or Moss!
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Old 01-05-2017, 12:49 PM   #1100
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The issue isn't even Dyson's value in a vacuum, IMO. It's Dyson's value to the Royals relative to his value elsewhere.

If both players were just sitting on the street and you just picked teams at random to say "who would you rather have", there are some teams that would actually pick Adams over Dyson. I'd say probably 2-1 Dyson to Adams, but nothing unanimous. Their value, in a vacuum, while a little different isn't exponentially so due to Dyson's age and pending FA status.

But for the Royals, the guy's just so important. He's an extremely nice fit for what they do and what they need.

Personally, I'm not a huge Dyson fan. I don't think he's a genuine .340 OBP player because you can knock the bat out of his hands and I think full-time exposure to LH pitching will hurt his rate stats significantly. He's also a guy on the wrong side of his prime who gets his value from his legs. That said, I understand the value that the Royals are putting on him because he's that important to them AND there are other teams that would use him in a similar fashion and to similar impact.

And yes, I'd still dump Adams for him because **** Matt Adams. Anybody who is a professional athlete who can't be bothered to take care of his body can just **** right off. I watched that guy's hamstring explode while on a light jog because the fat, sweaty bastard can't be bothered to stretch and/or take his fitness seriously. He gets hurt annually because he won't stay in shape and his body can't handle the stress of regular playing time. The guy is a genuinely talented hitter but he just doesn't give a shit.

So I wouldn't be bothered if the Cardinals simply non-tendered him. Guys that think they've arrived and simply don't do the work annoy the hell out of me.

If you're the sort who places value in WAR, Dyson is top 75 in baseball since 2013, and that's in a limited role.

If you use him appropriately and limit his exposure, he's a guy who should give you an easy 2.5-3 WAR as the strong side of a platoon.

I don't think it's just the royals who can find tremendous value in Dyson. It's any team that can carve out that type of role for him. Pair him with a guy who murders lefties and can at least play a neutral OF, and you're talking about a 5ish WAR position player.

The Cardinals aren't one of those teams, I don't think, with Fowler and Piscotty and Grichuk, unless Grichuk is as relegated to a short side platoon role. So I don't see it working there.




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Old 01-05-2017, 01:41 PM   #1101
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Oh the Coyotes are moving to Tempe. Putting them in Glendale was an epic disaster that literally almost cost the state an NHL team(not that many people out here would care anyway)
I went to a couple of Coyote games when I went to spring training a few years ago. They were a lot of fun, but the visiting team had more fans attending each game.
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Old 01-05-2017, 01:45 PM   #1102
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When was his funeral?
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Old 01-05-2017, 02:30 PM   #1103
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PLEASE TAKE HIM AWAY!!!!!!
No thanks. We're good.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:53 PM   #1104
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:55 PM   #1105
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That's a pretty good deal for KC, IMO.

Karns has some very promising peripherals. There are health issues there and frankly he may have Dave Bush/Ricky Nolasco disease where his overall performance just never catches up to his leading indicators.

But Karns has plus #3 potential, IMO. You're running into some age problems with him at this point (if he hasn't found it by 29, is he going to?), but I like his stuff. Like most young pitchers, it will be refinement in his command that tells the tale here.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:57 PM   #1106
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Is this a done deal or just a rumor?
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:58 PM   #1107
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Is this a done deal or just a rumor?
Done deal.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:59 PM   #1108
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Sounds like it's done.

Sad face.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:59 PM   #1109
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IF Karns can lower that walk rate this can be a major positive for KC.
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Old 01-06-2017, 04:01 PM   #1110
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Billy Burns' acquisition made me believe that Dyson's departure was all but inevitable.

Though I wish we could have found more of a "sure thing", one can't be too choosy when their bargaining chip is 1 year of a 4th outfielder (albeit one of the best in baseball).
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Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.Chiefspants is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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